Annual State of the South African Electricity Industry 2012

Strategic Insight into a Rapidly Changing Market

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The South African electricity industry is currently poised to enter a period of reform, particularly as discussions commence regarding the implementation of an Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO), which would take the transmission, distribution, system operator, and several other functions outside of Eskom. The country needs significant new-build capacity to come online in the next two decades, which should see the total generation capacity grow from 44 GW in 2012 to as much as 89 GW in 2030. A transition in the short-to-medium-term toward an ISMO will be beneficial to the nation's electricity industry and economy as a whole, as long as the implementation risks are mitigated accordingly.

Table of Contents

Executive SummaryExecutive SummaryExecutive Summary (continued)Executive Summary—CEO’s PerspectiveOverview of the South African Electricity Industry and the Integrated Resource Plan 2010Overview of the Integrated Resource PlanHistoric Overview of the South African Electricity IndustryIRP MethodologyIRP Decision-making CriteriaIRP Decision-making Criteria (continued)External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints—Electricity IndustryDrivers and RestraintsDrivers ExplainedDrivers Explained (continued)Restraints ExplainedRestraints Explained (continued)South African Electricity Industry AnalysisDiversification of the Electricity Generation MixDiversification of the Electricity Generation Mix (continued)Technology Shares of New Capacity AdditionsTotal Planned New BuildsRegulatory Structure Key Decision-makersRegulatory Structure Regulatory Structure (continued) Eskom’s Multi-year Price Determination Application (MYPD3)Forecasting and Tariff StructureHow are Tariffs Calculated in South Africa?Breakdown of the Multi-year Price Determination Application (MYPD3)Electricity Price Path Forecast—Based on MYPD3Electricity Usage by Key SectorsEnergy Mix Projections for MYPD3Third-party Wheeling and Tariff StructureDaily Load Curves with Megaflex and Ruraflex TariffsElectricity Price Competitiveness DiscussionThe Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement ProgrammeThe Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme (REIPPP)The Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme (continued)The Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme (continued)The Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme (continued)The Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme (continued)The Renewable Energy IPP Procurement Programme (continued)ConclusionsConclusionsLegal DisclaimerThe Frost & Sullivan StoryWho is Frost & SullivanWhat Makes Us UniqueTEAM MethodologyOur Global Footprint 40+ Offices

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