Brexit Impact on UK Economy and Business, Forecast to 2023

GDP Growth to Dip to Negative 0.4% by 2021 in No Deal Scenario; Growth to Weaken but Remain Positive in Other Probable Scenarios

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With Brexit day fast approaching, this study examines the implications of Brexit for the UK economy and UK businesses. Key topics covered include transition period impact, UK-EU post-Brexit relationship scenarios, scenario-based macroeconomic outlook, and scenario-based industry outlook for the automotive and financial services industries.Brexit negotiations commenced back in June 2017, and thus far, Phase 1 negotiations and discussions on the transition period have been completed. However, implementation of the points agreed to during these discussions is contingent upon the finalization and ratification of a withdrawal agreement. Consequently, should a no deal scenario unfold, a transition period would not co

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the Brexit process expected to look like and what are the key timelines?
  • What are the implications of a transition period for UK businesses and the UK economy?
  • What are the United Kingdom’s red lines in regards to post-Brexit UK-EU relationship models?
  • What are the potential post-Brexit UK-EU relationship scenarios and their implications for trade, customs checks and so on?
  • How do the potential post-Brexit UK-EU relationship scenarios compare against each other?
  • What is the Brexit scenario-based outlook for the United Kingdom’s GDP growth, monetary policy, and migration?
  • What is the Brexit scenario-based outlook for the automotive and financial services industries?
  • How does passporting compare to equivalence, enhanced equivalence and mutual regulatory recognition?

Table of Contents

Brexit Impact on UK Economy and Business, Forecast to 2023Executive SummaryPlanning for BrexitTransition Period—Benefits to the UKUK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship—Summary of Potential ScenariosScenario-Based Macroeconomic Outlook Under BrexitResearch ScopeResearch ScopeGlossaryGlossaryGlossary (continued)Brexit and Its ImpactBrexit ProcessPhase 1 of NegotiationsTransition Period—An Introduction Transition Period—Impact Analysis Transition Period—Impact Analysis (continued) UK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship ScenariosUK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship—The UK’s Red LinesUK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship—The UK’s Red Lines (continued)UK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship—Summary of Potential ScenariosUK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship—CETAUK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship—CETA Plus UK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship—No Deal or WTO ScenarioUK-EU Post-Brexit Relationship—Soft BrexitMacroeconomic OutlookGDP GrowthMonetary PolicyMigration TrendsMigration Trends (continued)Minimum Wage HikesIndustry OutlookAutomotive OutlookAutomotive Outlook (continued)Financial Services OutlookFinancial Services Outlook (continued) Growth Opportunities and Companies to ActionGrowth Opportunities Key ConclusionsKey ConclusionsLegal DisclaimerAppendixList of ExhibitsThe Frost & Sullivan StoryThe Frost & Sullivan StoryValue Proposition—Future of Your Company & CareerGlobal PerspectiveIndustry Convergence360º Research PerspectiveImplementation ExcellenceOur Blue Ocean Strategy

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