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Future Growth Potential of Electric Two-wheeler Mopeds and Motorcycles
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China’s two-wheeler market is highly mature, comprising domestic production, domestic sales, and import and export activities. China is also a major producer of two-wheelers in the world. In 2020, China produced 113.1 million units of two-wheelers. Of these, exports accounted for the largest proportion, 59.2%; while domestic sales accounted for 40.8% of production.In 2020, China produced a total of 33.9 million units of electric two-wheelers, with most of the production done by more than 100 OEMs. China’s electric two-wheelers are mainly sold domestically (95.1%), with a small amount for exports (4.9%). Electric two-wheelers are mainly used for short-distance commuting, and are one of the most competitive alternatives to small-displacement ICE two-wheelers. The electric two-wheeler bicycle segment leads the market, with the largest proportion of 93.1%. Low ownership barriers, such as lower cost and no driving license requirement, accelerate the development of this segment. Electric two-wheeler bicycle is the pioneer in China’s electric vehicle market, especially in the case of China’s two-wheeler motorcycle driving restriction. Overall, the electric two-wheeler market is moving toward higher technological upgrading, along the government’s specification standards, mandatory production requirements, mobile application integration, human-machine interface, and the penetration of lithium batteries. In China, electric two-wheeler bicycle market is highly mature, since its mass production in the 2000s, and has been an upgraded product of two-wheeler bicycles and motorcycles. Comparatively, electric two-wheeler moped and motorcycle market began in 2014.Leading OEMs dominated more than 50% share in China’s electric two-wheeler market. Key participants are Yadea, Aima, Tailg, Luyuan, and Xinri. Other notable OEMs include Niu and Ninebot, which have entered the electric two-wheeler market through premium offerings and exports. Personal purchase of electric two-wheelers is mainstream, driven by old product replacement (66.5%), and new user demand (19.6%). Shared mobility requires the approvals from city governments, and delivery riders are increasing due to online retail and on-demand takeaways. By 2024, China’s electric two-wheeler market is estimated to continue to grow, with total sales of 46.2 million units, due to the regional transition period of the electric two-wheeler specification implementation and mandated China Compulsory Certificate (3C) requirements. In addition, China’s electric two-wheeler market is likely to experience a higher market concentration, stricter government regulations, and more OEMs are expected to withdraw. On the other hand, more electric two-wheeler bicycle OEMs will enter the electric two-wheeler moped and motorcycle market.The research includes snapshots of production and sales. It defines current market trends, key government regulations, comparative cost analysis between electric two-wheeler and internal combustion engine (ICE) two-wheeler, key OEM profiles, future market trends, and provides a forecast to 2025, based on the forecast discussion for China.
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