Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022
Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022
Implementation of Bharat Stage-IV to Negatively Impact CV Demand in FY2018; Demand to Reach New Heights in FY2020
11-Aug-2017
South Asia, Middle East & North Africa
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Description
This study involves a unique methodology of analysis of various end-use application segments in commercial vehicles, their usage pattern, replacement cycles, and expected growth in the end-use industry, coupled with Mega Trends such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, urbanization, changing safety and emission norms, new tax reforms, changing trends in the usage pattern, and the resultant effect on the demand of commercial vehicles across the Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) range.
The scope of the study includes commercial vehicle goods carriers (excluding 3W) and passenger carriers (excluding cars and vans) as defined by the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM).
For goods carriers, the various end-use industry sectors that drive the demand for commercial vehicles include cement, Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL), Steel, mining, construction material, agriculture, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Fast Moving Consumer Durables (FMCD), automobiles, import-export containers, and market load.
For the passenger carrier segment, the various end-user applications include school, staff, tourist, intra-city, and intercity buses.
Total Units in Operation (UIO) for all the above end-user applications have been estimated. Estimated growth in end-use applications, coupled with vehicle replacement patterns in each segment, is used to estimate the demand in each segment.
Apart from end-use applications, the Indian commercial vehicle industry is also affected by a number of factors as follows which are used to further iterate the demand for commercial vehicles.
• One of the fastest growing GDPs in the world, leading to higher demand for goods and services
• Changing safety and emission regulations with the country moving to Bharat Stage-IV (Euro IV) norms in April 2017 affecting the purchase cost
of vehicles
• Implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) in July 2017 which effectively makes the whole of India a single market with no state
barriers or differential taxation
• Increasing restrictions on overloading, thereby, increasing the demand for higher GVW vehicles
• Mega Trends such as urbanization, which is increasing the demand for last-mile connectivity
Key questions this study will answer are as follows
• Historic analysis of the commercial vehicles industry in India from FY2009 to FY2016
• Key participants in the industry and their market shares for FY2016 and FY2017
• Market shares of various participants in each segment categories of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) and Medium and Heavy Commercial
Vehicles (MHCV)
• End-user demand drivers of commercial vehicles in India
• Estimated impact of each application segment in the demand for commercial vehicles
• Impact of Mega Trends and how it will impact the growth of commercial vehicles
• GVW-wise forecast of commercial vehicles, including goods carriers and passenger carriers till FY2022
• Year-on-year forecast of all segment from FY2018 to FY2022
Table of Contents
Key Findings
Key Findings (continued)
Indian CV Market Segmentation
Segmentation by Application and Vehicle Usage
Segmentation by Vehicle Category
Commercial Vehicles Historic Trend
Major Factors Affecting CV Sales
Market Share Analysis of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)
Unit Sales by Vehicle Usage
Market Share Analysis of OEMs by GC and PC
MHCV Sales by Vehicle Usage
Market Share Analysis of OEMs by MHCV GC and PC
LCV Sales by Vehicle Usage
Market Share Analysis of OEMs by LCV GC and PC
Modal Split for Primary Transportation, POL, India, FY2017
Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Cement and Mining, India, FY2017
Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Other Sectors, India, FY2017
Modal Split for Primary Transportation, Other Sectors, India, FY2017 (continued)
Cement Industry—India, FY2017
Cement—Value Chain
Units in Operation Estimates, Cement, India, FY2017
POL Sector—India, FY2017
Major Refinery Hubs in India
POL—Value Chain
Chemical—Value Chain
Bitumen—Value Chain
Edible Oil—Value Chain
LPG Tanker—Value Chain
Units in Operation Estimates, POL, India, FY2017
Key Minerals Production and Mine Location—India, FY2017
Units in Operation Estimates, Mining, India, FY2017
Steel Sector—India, FY2017
Steel—Value Chain
Units in Operation Estimates, Steel, India, FY2017
Automobile Industry—India, FY2017
Units in Operation Estimates, Automobiles, India, FY2017
Agriculture—India, FY2017
Units in Operation Estimates, Agriculture, India, FY2017
Road Infrastructure Development, India, 2005 to 2025(est)
Units in Operation Estimates, Construction Material, India, FY2017
Port Container Traffic
ISO Container—Value Chain
Units in Operation Estimates, ISO Containers, India, FY2017
Retail Industry—Sector Snapshot: India, FY2009 to FY2017
Manufacturing Hubs—FMCG
Manufacturing Hubs—FMCD
Current Operating Practice—FMCG and FMCD, India, FY2017
Total UIO of the Applications Considered
Staff Transportation
School Transportation
Intercity Transportation
Route Permit/Mofussil
Tourist
Major STUs Intercity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017
Major CTUs Intracity Bus Fleet Strength, FY2017
Urbanization—Growth in Urban Regions by 2025: India
Smart Cities
Impact of Smart Cities Development on CV
Fast-tracking Projects
Impact of GST
GST—Explained
GST Levy Structure and Impact on Manufacturers
GST—Benefit for Automobile OEMs
Major Implications of GST for the HCV Industry
GST’s Impact on Logistics and Transportation
Major Warehousing Hubs will Emerge After GST
Emission Norms Roadmap
Regulations—Effect of Emission Norms on HD Trucks
Other Regulations
Other Regulations—Compulsory Air Conditioning (AC) in Truck Cabin
Regulations—Effect of Safety Regulation
Vehicle Scrapping Policy Background
Vehicle Scrapping Policy—Other Factors and Assumptions
Estimated Effect of Scrap Policy
Mega Projects—Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC)
Mega Projects—Port Development: Sagar-Mala Project
Mega Projects—Railways Modernization
Dedicated Freight Corridor—Impact on CV, India
Overloading Practice (MHCV Segment)
Telematics in CVs
Mega Trends Shaping the Next 5 Years—CV PC
New Trends in Passenger Transportation
New Trends in Passenger Transportation (continued)
New Trends in Passenger Transportation (continued)
Goods Carrier Industry Structure—India, FY2017
MHCV-GC Operating Economics Analysis—India
Manpower Availability
Government Policies for the Transportation Sector
Indian Economy and HCV Sales Trend—India
PESTLE—Political Impact Analysis: India
PESTLE—Economical Impact Analysis: India
PESTLE—Social Impact Analysis: India
PESTLE—Technological Impact Analysis: India
PESTLE—Legal Impact Analysis: India
PESTLE—Ecological Impact Analysis: India
GDP Forecast—Scenarios; India, FY2017–FY2022
Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment
Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment (continued)
Estimated Production Growth Rates by Segment (continued)
Cement—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
POL—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
Mining—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
Steel—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
Automobiles—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
Agriculture—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
Construction Material—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
ISO Containers—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
FMCG and FMCD—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
Market Load and LCV—VIO Forecast: India, FY2017–FY2022
Major Transport Undertakings—Plans for Procurement
Forecast Framework
Forecast—Goods Carrier: India, FY2017–FY2022
Segment-wise MHCV-GC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022
Segment-wise LCV-GC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022
Forecast—Passenger Carrier: India, FY2017–FY2022
Segment-wise PC Forecast—India, FY2017–FY2022
Growth Opportunity 1—Market Expansion
Growth Opportunity 2—Freight Digitization
Growth Opportunity 3—Telematics
Growth Opportunity 4—Value Addition in Trucks
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
Key Conclusions
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer
List of Abbreviations
Market Engineering Methodology
Popular Topics
No Index | No |
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Podcast | No |
Author | Sankaralakshmi Sundaram |
Industries | Automotive |
WIP Number | P8F3-01-00-00-00 |
Is Prebook | No |