Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States

Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States

Stimulus Spending and Increasing Avenues of Choice to Spur Short-term Economic Growth

RELEASE DATE
09-Feb-2017
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North America
Research Code: K192-01-00-00-00
SKU: CI00246-NA-MR_19390
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Description

Donald Trump's ascendancy to President of the United States promises to bring big change for business. Controversial campaign rhetoric targeting topics as diverse as trade, deregulation, the environment, and healthcare coupled with Trump's long list of unconventional government appointees has created an environment of uncertainty. Citizens, businesses, and governments around the world are trying to separate the hyperbolic from the probable by asking what policies Trump will actually pursue and what preparations can be made.

Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States helps provide clarity. This study examines how President Trump’s top 10 policy areas will affect business and industries in the next 4 years. Policy areas include trade, immigration, tax reform, foreign policy and defense, deregulation, budget cuts, budget increases, healthcare, the Supreme Court, and wages and education. For each area, the study outlines Trump's campaign and current position, and provides a scenario of policy implementation. Discussions for each area highlight implications for business, as well as those industries (and in some cases, countries and citizen groups) most likely to win and lose.

Key questions addressed include:
•     What are the economic, political, and social issues that will animate Trump’s administration and what is the probability of Trump’s
administration being able to enact policy changes?
•     How should business prepare for Trump’s policy positions?
•     Who stands to gain and lose the most from implementation of likely scenarios?
•     What are the risks and opportunities that will arise as Trump’s policies converge?

Key features include:
•     Extensive research covering 10 policy areas central to the Trump campaign and administration
•     Synthesis of research areas into the top 5 impacts for each area that business should be aware of
•     Summary of 5 Mega Scenarios showcasing how the convergence of policies will define the United States in the near term—each scenario
has a central motif, key characteristics, and strategic perspectives

Key topics include:
•     Trade: the North American Free Trade Agreement, trade with China, the US-Korean trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
•     Immigration: Unauthorized immigration from Mexico, immigration from terror-prone nations, H-1B Visas
•     Tax reform: Individual tax restructuring, corporate tax restructuring
•     Foreign policy and defense: Russia reset, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, cyber terrorism
•     Deregulation: Environmental deregulation, financial deregulation
•     Budget cuts: The Penny Plan, environmental budget cuts
•     Budget increases: Infrastructure spending, defense spending
•     Healthcare: The Affordable Care Act, Medicare
•     The Supreme Court: A conservative tilt
•     Wages and education: Minimum wage, school choice, and Common Core

The study time frame is from 2017 to 2020.

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.
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Table of Contents

Executive Summary—Mega Scenarios

Interactions will be Driven by the Dynamics of Self-Determination

The Politics of Nostalgia will Meet Modernized Solutions

Polarization will Become Even More Pronounced

Soundbite Messaging will Direct Engagements

America First will Redefine Global Order

Impact on GDP—Increased Growth is Expected through 2018

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Trade

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Immigration

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Tax Reform

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Deregulation

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Cuts

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Increases

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Healthcare

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on the Supreme Court

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Wages and Education

Research Scope

Aims and Objectives

Research Background

Research Methodology—From Macro-to-micro

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

Trump on Trade—Issues Discussed

Trump on NAFTA

NAFTA has Forged Intricate Economic Links

NAFTA has Both Displaced and Created Jobs

Canada Stands to Gain and Lose from NAFTA Renegotiations

NAFTA has Bolstered US Services Exports

Implications of Trump on NAFTA

Trump on NAFTA—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on Trade with China

Is China Currently Manipulating its Currency to Improve Exports?

China’s Response to Trade Targeting

The RCEP and China’s Global Standing

How a Trade War with China and Mexico Would Affect the US Economy

Implications of Trump on Trade with China

Trump on Trade with China—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on KORUS

US Trade Deficits have Risen Since KORUS was Passed

Implications of Trump on KORUS

Trump on KORUS—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on the TPP

Without the TPP, the United States Loses a Major Foothold in Asia

Implications of Trump on the TPP

Trump on the TPP—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on the TTIP

The TTIP Would Have Faced Criticism from Both Sides of the Pond

Implications of Trump on the TTIP

Trump on the TTIP—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Trade

Trump on Immigration—Issues Discussed

Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico

Trends in Unauthorized Immigration to the United States

Sanctuary Cities at the Center of Economic Tension

Building a Wall will Contribute to an Expanding Border Patrol Budget

Implications of Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico

Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries

Immigration from Terror-prone Countries

Immigrants are Vital to Small Business Growth in the United States

Implications of Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries

Trump Immigration from Terror-prone Countries—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on H-1B Visas

Characteristics of H-1B Visa Recipients

The H-1B Controversy is a Matter of Geography

Implications of Trump on H-1B Visas

Trump on H-1B Visas—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Immigration

Trump on Tax Reform—Issues Discussed

Overview of Proposed Tax Reforms

Trump on Individual Tax Reforms

Estimated Impact of Individual Tax Reforms

The Goal of Lower Taxes is to Stimulate Consumer Spending

Implications of Trump on Individual Tax Restructuring

Trump on Individual Tax Restructuring—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on Corporate Tax Reform

Estimated Impact of Corporate Tax Reforms

Reforms are Needed to Increase Global Competitiveness

Overseas Cash Repatriation Would Have Mixed Effects

Implications of Trump on Corporate Tax Reform

Trump on Corporate Tax Reforms—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Tax Reform

Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense—Issues Discussed

Trump on a Russian Reset

Better Relations with Russia will Hinge on Trump’s Use of Sanctions

Implications of Trump on a Russian Reset

Trump on a Russian Reset—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on NATO

The United States is the Highest Contributor of NATO Funding

Implications of Trump on NATO

Trump on NATO—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on Cyber Terrorism

Cyber Crimes Have been Plaguing the United States

Implications of Trump on Cyber Terrorism

Trump on Cyber Terrorism—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense

Trump on Deregulation—Issues Discussed

Trump on Environmental Deregulation

Trump’s Targeting of Environmental Regulations will Help the Fossil Fuel Industry

Coal Could Stabilize but Face Greater Competition from Natural Gas

Trump will Look to Increase Federal Land Leases

Implications of Trump on Environmental Deregulation

Trump on Environmental Deregulation—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on Financial Deregulation

Three Paths Proposed in US Financial Regulation

Financial Deregulation will Benefit and Weaken Consumers

Financial Service Institutions will Greatly Benefit from Reduced Compliance Costs and Greater Freedom to Maneuver

Implications of Trump on Financial Deregulation

Trump on Financial Deregulation—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Deregulation

Trump on Federal Budget Cuts—Issues Discussed

Trump on the Penny Plan

It Remains Uncertain Exactly What Budgets the Penny Plan Would Cut

Implications of Trump on Budget Cuts—The Penny Plan

Trump on the Penny Plan—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts

Trump will Call for Environmental Spending Control

Implications of Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts

Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Cuts

Trump on Federal Budget Increases—Issues Discussed

Trump on Infrastructure Spending

The United States Needs Greater Infrastructure Investment

Private Investment in Infrastructure Projects will Rise

Implications of Trump on Infrastructure Spending

Federal Budget Increases—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on Defense Spending

Increasing Defense Spending will Put Pressure on Other Discretionary Spending

Implications of Trump on Defense Spending

Trump on Defense Spending—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Increases

Trump on Healthcare—Issues Discussed

Trump on the ACA

The ACA is Embedded in America’s Healthcare Sector

Trump’s ACA Policies would Increase Out-of-pocket Spending

Repealing the ACA Could Cost between $50 Billion and $250 Billion

Implications of Trump on ACA

Trump on the ACA—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on Medicare

The Number of Medicare Recipients will Continue to Grow

Trump’s ACA Repeal Policy Would Increase Direct Federal Spending

Implications of Trump on Medicare

Trump on Medicare—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Healthcare

Trump on the Supreme Court—Issues Discussed

Trump on a Conservative Tilt

An Influx of New Justices Could Shape SCOTUS for the Next Decade

SCOTUS will Tackle Patent Infringement Venues in 2017

A Trump SCOTUS Nominee Could Impact 23 Cases on the 2017 Docket

Implications of Trump on a Conservative Tilt

Trump on a Conservative Tilt—Potential Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on the Supreme Court

Trump on Wages and Education—Issues Discussed

Trump on Minimum Wage

Minimum Wages across the United States

Implications of Trump on the Minimum Wage

Trump on the Minimum Wage—Potential Winners and Losers

Trump on School Choice and Common Core

Charter Schools Have Shown Consistent Growth

Implications of Trump on School Choice and Common Core

Trump on School Choice—Winners and Losers

Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Wages and Education

The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

List of Figures
  • 1. Overview of Recent US-Canada Trade Issues, US and Canada, as of 2016
  • 2. Trump on NAFTA: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 3. Perspectives on US Trade with China, 2009–2016
  • 4. Pending Trade Relationships with China, Global, 2016
  • 5. Trump on Trade with China: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 6. Top Trade Categories, US, 2015
  • 7. Trump on KORUS: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 8. Participating TPP Nations, Global, 2016
  • 9. Trump on the TPP: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 10. Participating TTIP Nations, Global, 2016
  • 11. Trump on the TTIP: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 12. Annual State and Local Tax Contribution of Unauthorized Immigrants, Contiguous US, 2016
  • 13. Unauthorized Immigrant Population by State and Prominent Sanctuary Cities, Contiguous US, 2014 and 2016*
  • 14. US Customs and Border Patrol 2017 Budget Request Highlights
  • 15. Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 16. Proportion of Refugees in Immigrant Population, US, 2015
  • 17. Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 18. Trump on H-1B Visas: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 19. Trump-proposed Tax Reforms, US, 2017–2020
  • 20. Trump on Individual Income Tax Cuts: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 21. Trump on Corporate Tax Reform: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 22. Trump on a Russian Reset: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 23. Trump on NATO: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 24. Trump on Cyber Terrorism: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 25. Environmental Regulations that Trump is Expected to Target, US, 2016
  • 26. Map of Onshore Federal and Indian Lands, US, 2015
  • 27. Trump on Environmental Deregulation: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 28. Trump on Financial Deregulation: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 29. Trump on The Penny Plan: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 30. Probability of Environment-Related Budget Cuts by Department, US, 2017
  • 31. Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 32. Overview of PPP Projects, US, 2005–2014
  • 33. Trump on Infrastructure Spending: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 34. Projected Targets by Defense Departments and Estimated Costs During Presidential Term, US, 2016–2020
  • 35. Trump on Defense Spending: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 36. Estimated Economic Impact of Repealing the ACA with no Replacement Plan, US, 2019–2029
  • 37. Impact of Repealing the ACA on the Federal Budget, US, 2017–2026
  • 38. Impact of Replacing the ACA* on the Federal Budget, US, 2018
  • 39. Trump on ACA: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 40. Impact of Repealing the ACA’s Medicare Provisions on the Federal Budget, US, 2017–2026
  • 41. Trump on Medicare: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 42. Supreme Court Make-Up, US, as of 2016
  • 43. Supreme Court Precedents and Cases Likely to Impact Business*, US, 2016–2017 term
  • 44. Trump’s Impact on SCOTUS Timeline, US, 2016–2017 Term
  • 45. Trump on the Supreme Court: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 46. Trump on the Minimum Wage: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
  • 47. Map of Common Core Adoption by State, US, 2016
  • 48. Trump on School Choice: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
List of Charts
  • ? 1. Projected Change in Real GDP, US and Global, 2016–2018
  • 2. Projected Change in Real GDP, Impacted Economies and Global, 2016–2018
  • 3. Commodity Trade, US Perspective, 1992–2015
  • 4. FDI to Mexico from Canada and the US, 1992–2015
  • 5. Manufacturing Productivity versus Employment, US, 1992–2016
  • 6. US Services Trade Surplus with Canada and Mexico, 1999–2015
  • 7. Nominal Effective Exchange Rates of the Dollar versus the Yuan, US and China, 2005–November 2016
  • 8. Trend Impact on US GDP Based on Trade War Scenarios, Global, 2015–2025
  • 9. Total Trade* with South Korea, US Perspective, 2011–2015
  • 10. Unauthorized Immigrants, US, 2014
  • 11. Unauthorized Immigrant Share of Workers by Industry, US, 2014
  • 12. Immigrant Share of Total Population, US, 2015
  • 13. Refugee Admissions by Religion, US, 2002–2016
  • 14. Small Business Owner Share of Labor Force by Country of Origin, US, 2010
  • 15. Share of Foreign-born Small Business Owners by Establishment Type, US, 2010
  • 16. Number of Filed versus Approved H-1B Visas by Approval Type, US, FY2013–FY2015*
  • 17. Breakdown of Approved H-1B Visas by Country of Origin and Occupation, US, FY2014*
  • 18. Salary Range of Top 2 Occupations for H-1B Recipients versus All Workers—25th to 75th Percentile, US, FY2014
  • 19. Total Estimated Effect of Trump’s Tax Plan for Individuals on Tax Revenues, US, 2017–2020
  • 20. Annual Average Estimated Federal Tax Savings under House GOP and Trump Proposals by Income Quintile, US, 2017–2020
  • 21. Post-Tax Discretionary Spending Ability* by Income Decile, US, 2015
  • 22. Total Estimated Effect of Trump’s Tax Plan for Businesses on Tax Revenue, US, 2017–2020
  • 23. Combined Corporate Income Tax Rates, Selected Economies, 2016
  • 24. Percentage of CFOs Noted as Having a Specific Plan for Spending Repatriated Cash, US, Q4 2016
  • 25. Top Priority of Companies for Capital Allocations in 2017, Global, Q4 2016*
  • 26. GDP, Russia, 2000–2016
  • 27. Defense Expenditure as a Share of GDP*, NATO Nations, 2014-2016
  • 28. Total Defense Expenditure**, NATO, 2016
  • 29. Cybercrime Complaints, US, 2011–2015
  • 30. Number of Data Breaches and Records Exposed, US, 2012–2016
  • 31. GHG Emissions Reduction Scenarios, US, 2000–2025
  • 32. Total Electricity Supply Estimates by Source and Scenario, US, 2015, 2022, 2040
  • 33. Levelized Cost Range of Electricity by Source, US, Plants Coming Online in 2022 and 2040*
  • 34. Fossil Fuel Sales of Production by Land Ownership, US, FY2003–FY2014
  • 35. Average Credit Score for Fannie Mae Loans, US, 2000–2015
  • 36. Assets in IRAs, US, 2010 and 2015
  • 37. SPDR XPF Closing Share Price, US, 2016–2017
  • 38. Reduction in Caps For Non-defense Discretionary Budget As Per The Penny Plan, US, 2016–2026
  • 39. Distribution of Federal Spending, US, 2015
  • 40. Infrastructure Spending Relative to GDP, US, 1960–2014
  • 41. Trends in Infrastructure Spending and Unemployment, US, 2000–2014
  • 42. Discretionary Spending, US, 2010–2020
  • 43. Breakdown of Non-defense Discretionary Spending by Large Spending Areas, US, 2016
  • 44. Number of Uninsured Americans with ACA, ACA Repeal, and ACA Replace with Trump Proposals, US, 2018
  • 45. Estimated Impact on Average Annual Out-of-Pocket Spending for Individual Market Enrollees* based on Trump Proposals, US, 2018
  • 46. Trends in Medicare Spending and the Population of Medicare-Eligible Citizens, US, 2000–2020
  • 47. States with Minimum Wages Higher than Federal Mandates, US, 2016
  • 48. Industry Share of Minimum Wage Workers, US, 2015
  • 49. Number of Charter Schools and Students, US, School Year 2010/11– 2014/15
Related Research
Donald Trump's ascendancy to President of the United States promises to bring big change for business. Controversial campaign rhetoric targeting topics as diverse as trade, deregulation, the environment, and healthcare coupled with Trump's long list of unconventional government appointees has created an environment of uncertainty. Citizens, businesses, and governments around the world are trying to separate the hyperbolic from the probable by asking what policies Trump will actually pursue and what preparations can be made. Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States helps provide clarity. This study examines how President Trump’s top 10 policy areas will affect business and industries in the next 4 years. Policy areas include trade, immigration, tax reform, foreign policy and defense, deregulation, budget cuts, budget increases, healthcare, the Supreme Court, and wages and education. For each area, the study outlines Trump's campaign and current position, and provides a scenario of policy implementation. Discussions for each area highlight implications for business, as well as those industries (and in some cases, countries and citizen groups) most likely to win and lose. Key questions addressed include: • What are the economic, political, and social issues that will animate Trump’s administration and what is the probability of Trump’s administration being able to enact policy changes? • How should business prepare for Trump’s policy positions? • Who stands to gain and lose the most from implementation of likely scenarios? • What are the risks and opportunities that will arise as Trump’s policies converge? Key features include: • Extensive research covering 10 policy areas central to the Trump campaign and administration • Synthesis of research areas into the top 5 impacts for each area that business should be aware of • Summary of 5 Mega Scenarios showcasing how the convergence of policies will define the United States in the near term—each
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Table of Contents | Executive Summary—Mega Scenarios and Top Impacts ~ || Executive Summary—Mega Scenarios ~ || Interactions will be Driven by the Dynamics of Self-Determination ~ || The Politics of Nostalgia will Meet Modernized Solutions ~ || Polarization will Become Even More Pronounced ~ || Soundbite Messaging will Direct Engagements ~ || America First will Redefine Global Order ~ || Impact on GDP—Increased Growth is Expected through 2018~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Trade ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Immigration ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Tax Reform ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Deregulation ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Cuts ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Increases ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Healthcare ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on the Supreme Court ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Wages and Education~ | Research Methodology, Objectives, and Definitions ~ || Research Scope~ || Aims and Objectives ~ || Research Background ~ || Research Methodology—From Macro-to-micro~ || List of Acronyms and Abbreviations~ | Trump on Trade ~ || Trump on Trade—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on NAFTA ~ || NAFTA has Forged Intricate Economic Links ~ || NAFTA has Both Displaced and Created Jobs ~ || Canada Stands to Gain and Lose from NAFTA Renegotiations ~ || NAFTA has Bolstered US Services Exports ~ || Implications of Trump on NAFTA ~ || Trump on NAFTA—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on Trade with China ~ || Is China Currently Manipulating its Currency to Improve Exports? ~ || China’s Response to Trade Targeting ~ || The RCEP and China’s Global Standing~ || How a Trade War with China and Mexico Would Affect the US Economy~ || Implications of Trump on Trade with China ~ || Trump on Trade with China—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on KORUS ~ || US Trade Deficits have Risen Since KORUS was Passed ~ || Implications of Trump on KORUS ~ || Trump on KORUS—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on the TPP~ || Without the TPP, the United States Loses a Major Foothold in Asia ~ || Implications of Trump on the TPP ~ || Trump on the TPP—Potential Winners and Losers~ || Trump on the TTIP~ || The TTIP Would Have Faced Criticism from Both Sides of the Pond~ || Implications of Trump on the TTIP ~ || Trump on the TTIP—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Trade~ | Trump on Immigration ~ || Trump on Immigration—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico ~ || Trends in Unauthorized Immigration to the United States ~ || Sanctuary Cities at the Center of Economic Tension ~ || Building a Wall will Contribute to an Expanding Border Patrol Budget ~ || Implications of Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico ~ || Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries ~ || Immigration from Terror-prone Countries ~ || Immigrants are Vital to Small Business Growth in the United States ~ || Implications of Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries ~ || Trump Immigration from Terror-prone Countries—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on H-1B Visas ~ || Characteristics of H-1B Visa Recipients ~ || The H-1B Controversy is a Matter of Geography ~ || Implications of Trump on H-1B Visas ~ || Trump on H-1B Visas—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Immigration~ | Trump on Tax Reform ~ || Trump on Tax Reform—Issues Discussed ~ || Overview of Proposed Tax Reforms ~ || Trump on Individual Tax Reforms ~ || Estimated Impact of Individual Tax Reforms ~ || The Goal of Lower Taxes is to Stimulate Consumer Spending ~ || Implications of Trump on Individual Tax Restructuring ~ || Trump on Individual Tax Restructuring—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on Corporate Tax Reform~ || Estimated Impact of Corporate Tax Reforms ~ || Reforms are Needed to Increase Global Competitiveness ~ || Overseas Cash Repatriation Would Have Mixed Effects ~ || Implications of Trump on Corporate Tax Reform ~ || Trump on Corporate Tax Reforms—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Tax Reform~ | Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense ~ || Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on a Russian Reset ~ || Better Relations with Russia will Hinge on Trump’s Use of Sanctions ~ || Implications of Trump on a Russian Reset~ || Trump on a Russian Reset—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on NATO~ || The United States is the Highest Contributor of NATO Funding ~ || Implications of Trump on NATO ~ || Trump on NATO—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on Cyber Terrorism ~ || Cyber Crimes Have been Plaguing the United States ~ || Implications of Trump on Cyber Terrorism ~ || Trump on Cyber Terrorism—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense~ | Trump on Deregulation ~ || Trump on Deregulation—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on Environmental Deregulation ~ || Trump’s Targeting of Environmental Regulations will Help the Fossil Fuel Industry ~ || Coal Could Stabilize but Face Greater Competition from Natural Gas ~ || Trump will Look to Increase Federal Land Leases ~ || Implications of Trump on Environmental Deregulation ~ || Trump on Environmental Deregulation—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on Financial Deregulation ~ || Three Paths Proposed in US Financial Regulation ~ || Financial Deregulation will Benefit and Weaken Consumers ~ || Financial Service Institutions will Greatly Benefit from Reduced Compliance Costs and Greater Freedom to Maneuver ~ || Implications of Trump on Financial Deregulation~ || Trump on Financial Deregulation—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Deregulation~ | Trump on Federal Budget Cuts~ || Trump on Federal Budget Cuts—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on the Penny Plan ~ || It Remains Uncertain Exactly What Budgets the Penny Plan Would Cut ~ || Implications of Trump on Budget Cuts—The Penny Plan ~ || Trump on the Penny Plan—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts ~ || Trump will Call for Environmental Spending Control ~ || Implications of Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts ~ || Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Cuts~ | Trump on Federal Budget Increases ~ || Trump on Federal Budget Increases—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on Infrastructure Spending ~ || The United States Needs Greater Infrastructure Investment ~ || Private Investment in Infrastructure Projects will Rise ~ || Implications of Trump on Infrastructure Spending ~ || Federal Budget Increases—Potential Winners and Losers~ || Trump on Defense Spending ~ || Increasing Defense Spending will Put Pressure on Other Discretionary Spending ~ || Implications of Trump on Defense Spending ~ || Trump on Defense Spending—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Increases~ | Trump on Healthcare ~ || Trump on Healthcare—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on the ACA ~ || The ACA is Embedded in America’s Healthcare Sector ~ || Trump’s ACA Policies would Increase Out-of-pocket Spending ~ || Repealing the ACA Could Cost between $50 Billion and $250 Billion ~ || Implications of Trump on ACA ~ || Trump on the ACA—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on Medicare ~ || The Number of Medicare Recipients will Continue to Grow ~ || Trump’s ACA Repeal Policy Would Increase Direct Federal Spending ~ || Implications of Trump on Medicare ~ || Trump on Medicare—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Healthcare~ | Trump on the Supreme Court ~ || Trump on the Supreme Court—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on a Conservative Tilt ~ || An Influx of New Justices Could Shape SCOTUS for the Next Decade ~ || SCOTUS will Tackle Patent Infringement Venues in 2017 ~ || A Trump SCOTUS Nominee Could Impact 23 Cases on the 2017 Docket ~ || Implications of Trump on a Conservative Tilt ~ || Trump on a Conservative Tilt—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on the Supreme Court~ | Trump on Wages and Education ~ || Trump on Wages and Education—Issues Discussed ~ || Trump on Minimum Wage ~ || Minimum Wages across the United States~ || Implications of Trump on the Minimum Wage ~ || Trump on the Minimum Wage—Potential Winners and Losers ~ || Trump on School Choice and Common Core ~ || Charter Schools Have Shown Consistent Growth ~ || Implications of Trump on School Choice and Common Core ~ || Trump on School Choice—Winners and Losers ~ || Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Wages and Education~ | The Last Word ~ || The Last Word—3 Big Predictions ~ || Legal Disclaimer~
List of Charts and Figures 1. Overview of Recent US-Canada Trade Issues, US and Canada, as of 2016~ 2. Trump on NAFTA: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 3. Perspectives on US Trade with China, 2009–2016~ 4. Pending Trade Relationships with China, Global, 2016~ 5. Trump on Trade with China: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 6. Top Trade Categories, US, 2015~ 7. Trump on KORUS: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 8. Participating TPP Nations, Global, 2016~ 9. Trump on the TPP: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 10. Participating TTIP Nations, Global, 2016~ 11. Trump on the TTIP: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 12. Annual State and Local Tax Contribution of Unauthorized Immigrants, Contiguous US, 2016~ 13. Unauthorized Immigrant Population by State and Prominent Sanctuary Cities, Contiguous US, 2014 and 2016*~ 14. US Customs and Border Patrol 2017 Budget Request Highlights~ 15. Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 16. Proportion of Refugees in Immigrant Population, US, 2015~ 17. Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 18. Trump on H-1B Visas: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 19. Trump-proposed Tax Reforms, US, 2017–2020~ 20. Trump on Individual Income Tax Cuts: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 21. Trump on Corporate Tax Reform: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 22. Trump on a Russian Reset: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 23. Trump on NATO: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 24. Trump on Cyber Terrorism: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 25. Environmental Regulations that Trump is Expected to Target, US, 2016~ 26. Map of Onshore Federal and Indian Lands, US, 2015 ~ 27. Trump on Environmental Deregulation: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 28. Trump on Financial Deregulation: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 29. Trump on The Penny Plan: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 30. Probability of Environment-Related Budget Cuts by Department, US, 2017~ 31. Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 32. Overview of PPP Projects, US, 2005–2014~ 33. Trump on Infrastructure Spending: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 34. Projected Targets by Defense Departments and Estimated Costs During Presidential Term, US, 2016–2020~ 35. Trump on Defense Spending: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 36. Estimated Economic Impact of Repealing the ACA with no Replacement Plan, US, 2019–2029~ 37. Impact of Repealing the ACA on the Federal Budget, US, 2017–2026~ 38. Impact of Replacing the ACA* on the Federal Budget, US, 2018~ 39. Trump on ACA: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 40. Impact of Repealing the ACA’s Medicare Provisions on the Federal Budget, US, 2017–2026~ 41. Trump on Medicare: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 42. Supreme Court Make-Up, US, as of 2016~ 43. Supreme Court Precedents and Cases Likely to Impact Business*, US, 2016–2017 term~ 44. Trump’s Impact on SCOTUS Timeline, US, 2016–2017 Term~ 45. Trump on the Supreme Court: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 46. Trump on the Minimum Wage: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~ 47. Map of Common Core Adoption by State, US, 2016~ 48. Trump on School Choice: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020~| ? 1. Projected Change in Real GDP, US and Global, 2016–2018~ 2. Projected Change in Real GDP, Impacted Economies and Global, 2016–2018~ 3. Commodity Trade, US Perspective, 1992–2015~ 4. FDI to Mexico from Canada and the US, 1992–2015~ 5. Manufacturing Productivity versus Employment, US, 1992–2016~ 6. US Services Trade Surplus with Canada and Mexico, 1999–2015~ 7. Nominal Effective Exchange Rates of the Dollar versus the Yuan, US and China, 2005–November 2016 ~ 8. Trend Impact on US GDP Based on Trade War Scenarios, Global, 2015–2025~ 9. Total Trade* with South Korea, US Perspective, 2011–2015~ 10. Unauthorized Immigrants, US, 2014~ 11. Unauthorized Immigrant Share of Workers by Industry, US, 2014~ 12. Immigrant Share of Total Population, US, 2015~ 13. Refugee Admissions by Religion, US, 2002–2016~ 14. Small Business Owner Share of Labor Force by Country of Origin, US, 2010~ 15. Share of Foreign-born Small Business Owners by Establishment Type, US, 2010~ 16. Number of Filed versus Approved H-1B Visas by Approval Type, US, FY2013–FY2015*~ 17. Breakdown of Approved H-1B Visas by Country of Origin and Occupation, US, FY2014*~ 18. Salary Range of Top 2 Occupations for H-1B Recipients versus All Workers—25th to 75th Percentile, US, FY2014~ 19. Total Estimated Effect of Trump’s Tax Plan for Individuals on Tax Revenues, US, 2017–2020~ 20. Annual Average Estimated Federal Tax Savings under House GOP and Trump Proposals by Income Quintile, US, 2017–2020~ 21. Post-Tax Discretionary Spending Ability* by Income Decile, US, 2015~ 22. Total Estimated Effect of Trump’s Tax Plan for Businesses on Tax Revenue, US, 2017–2020~ 23. Combined Corporate Income Tax Rates, Selected Economies, 2016~ 24. Percentage of CFOs Noted as Having a Specific Plan for Spending Repatriated Cash, US, Q4 2016~ 25. Top Priority of Companies for Capital Allocations in 2017, Global, Q4 2016*~ 26. GDP, Russia, 2000–2016~ 27. Defense Expenditure as a Share of GDP*, NATO Nations, 2014-2016~ 28. Total Defense Expenditure**, NATO, 2016 ~ 29. Cybercrime Complaints, US, 2011–2015 ~ 30. Number of Data Breaches and Records Exposed, US, 2012–2016~ 31. GHG Emissions Reduction Scenarios, US, 2000–2025~ 32. Total Electricity Supply Estimates by Source and Scenario, US, 2015, 2022, 2040~ 33. Levelized Cost Range of Electricity by Source, US, Plants Coming Online in 2022 and 2040*~ 34. Fossil Fuel Sales of Production by Land Ownership, US, FY2003–FY2014~ 35. Average Credit Score for Fannie Mae Loans, US, 2000–2015~ 36. Assets in IRAs, US, 2010 and 2015~ 37. SPDR XPF Closing Share Price, US, 2016–2017~ 38. Reduction in Caps For Non-defense Discretionary Budget As Per The Penny Plan, US, 2016–2026~ 39. Distribution of Federal Spending, US, 2015~ 40. Infrastructure Spending Relative to GDP, US, 1960–2014~ 41. Trends in Infrastructure Spending and Unemployment, US, 2000–2014~ 42. Discretionary Spending, US, 2010–2020~ 43. Breakdown of Non-defense Discretionary Spending by Large Spending Areas, US, 2016~ 44. Number of Uninsured Americans with ACA, ACA Repeal, and ACA Replace with Trump Proposals, US, 2018~ 45. Estimated Impact on Average Annual Out-of-Pocket Spending for Individual Market Enrollees* based on Trump Proposals, US, 2018 ~ 46. Trends in Medicare Spending and the Population of Medicare-Eligible Citizens, US, 2000–2020~ 47. States with Minimum Wages Higher than Federal Mandates, US, 2016 ~ 48. Industry Share of Minimum Wage Workers, US, 2015 ~ 49. Number of Charter Schools and Students, US, School Year 2010/11– 2014/15~
Author Jillian Walker
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number K192-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No