Electricity Industry Profiles—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania

Interconnections to Europe Key to the Regions’ Development

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This study forms part of Frost & Sullivan's European Electricity Industry Profiles series and includes Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Included in these profiles are:
•     an assessment of key drivers and restraints in the market
•     the demand and total generation profile
•     key aspects of energy policy
•     forecasts on the development of fuel mix, including installed capacity and Euro investment
•     renewable support incentives and mechanisms
•     key participants in power generation, retail, and distribution
•     shape of the transmission and distribution network and future investments
Although the Baltic States are 3 of Europe's smallest electricity markets, they offer attractive investment opportunities for European investors. All 3 are looking to increase their penetration of renewable energy as a way of ensuring security of supply against dependence on Russian gas, although there have not been any major supply crisis for some time now and Russia is keen on not scaring its European customers at a time when renewable energy investment across Europe is continuing to increase.
Another key strategy for security is investment in interconnections between states and, crucially, between the large Nordpool grid of the Nordic countries. All 3 countries have strong national champions that dominate electricity generation, but smaller companies are gaining share, mainly through investment in wind or bioenergy projects. The climatic conditions mean that solar potential in the region is limited. In the retail market, the rate of liberalisation is varied, but new entrants are starting to make inroads into the traditional state of dominance.
In terms of new investments, Estonia has plans to invest mainly in wind energy, but will also continue to invest in oil shale, a type of fuel found in few countries around the world. This fuel is not environment-friendly, but Estonia needs to leverage its natural resources and it cannot move entirely away from this fuel. New plants will have the latest environmental pollution control technologies and will operate at higher levels of efficiency than current plants, which is a significant improvement. The Baltic interconnector between Estonia and Finland will also help to ensure its energy security, a matter of key importance.
Latvia is making significant investments in wind technology, but the largest amount will go into natural gas, sourced from Russia and the Nordic region. Latvia has a fully liberalised electricity market and this should encourage new investments. In addition, Latvia is investing in bioenergy, given its extensive forestry resources that it can draw on for feedstock supply. Latvia also needs the baseload electricity generation that comes from fuels such as bioenergy to balance intermittent hydro power, on which it depends heavily.
Lithuania is investing significant amounts in wind energy and fossil fuels, mainly natural gas. Lithuania has an operational liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, which means it can source gas from the global market. This makes the country more comfortable with the idea of investing in gas. It is also investing in pipeline connections.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
2. Research Scope and Methodology
Research Scope
Research Profile
Forecasting Methodology
3. Estonia
Key Findings
Drivers and Restraints
Electricity Market Overview
Energy Policy
Fuel Mix Forecast
Installed Capacity Forecast
Power Investment
Support Mechanisms and Major Incentives
Electricity Generation
Electricity Distribution Market
Electricity Retail Market
Transmission Network
4. Latvia
Key Findings
Drivers and Restraints
Electricity Market Overview
Energy Policy
Fuel Mix Forecast
Installed Capacity Forecast
Power Investment
Support Mechanisms and Major Incentives
Electricity Generation
Electricity Distribution Market
Electricity Retail Market
Transmission Network
5. Lithuania
Key Findings
Drivers and Restraints
Electricity Market Overview
Energy Policy
Fuel Mix Forecast
Installed Capacity Forecast
Power Investment
Support Mechanisms and Major Incentives
Electricity Generation
Electricity Distribution Market
Electricity Retail Market
Transmission Network
6. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
Growth Opportunity 1—Business Models
Growth Opportunity 2—Vertical Integration
Strategic Imperatives for Power and Energy Companies
Legal Disclaimer
7. The Frost & Sullivan Story


List of Figures & Charts

1. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Drivers, Estonia, 2016–2030
2. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Restraints, Estonia, 2016–2030
3. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Production, Estonia, 2015
4. Electricity Industry Profiles: Distribution, 2015
5. Electricity Industry Profiles: Retail, Estonia 2015
6. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Transmission System, Estonia, 2015
7. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Drivers, Latvia, 2016–2030
8. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Restraints, Latvia, 2016–2030
9. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Production, Latvia, 2015
10. Electricity Industry Profiles: Energy Policy, Latvia, 2015
11. Electricity Industry Profiles: Installed Plant Capacity, Latvia, 2015–2030
12. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Generated, Latvia, 2015–2030
13. Electricity Industry Profiles: Distribution, Latvia, 2015
14. Electricity Industry Profiles: Retail, Latvia, 2015
15. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Transmission System, Latvia, 2015
16. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Drivers, Lithuania, 2016–2030
17. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Restraints, Estonia, 2016–2030
18. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Production, Lithuania, 2015
19. Electricity Industry Profiles: Energy Policy, Lithuania, 2016
20. Electricity Industry Profiles: Installed Plant Capacity, Latvia, 2015–2030
21. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Generated, Lithuania, 2015–2030
22. Electricity Industry Profiles: Distribution, Lithuania, 2015
23. Electricity Industry Profiles: Retail, Lithuania, 2015
24. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Transmission System, Lithuania, 2015


1. Electricity Industry Profiles: Installed Capacity Forecast, Estonia, 2015, 2020, and 2030
2. Electricity Industry Profiles: Power Capacity Investment, Estonia, 2015–2020 and 2020–2030
3. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Participants’ Installed Capacity, Estonia, 2015
4. Electricity Industry Profiles: Installed Capacity Forecast, Latvia, 2015, 2020, and 2030
5. Electricity Industry Profiles: Power Capacity Investment, Latvia, 2015–2020 and 2020–2030
6. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Participants’ Installed Capacity, Latvia, 2015
7. Electricity Industry Profiles: Installed Capacity Forecast, Lithuania, 2015, 2020, and 2030
8. Electricity Industry Profiles: Power Capacity Investment, Lithuania, 2015–2020 and 2020–2030
9. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Participants’ Installed Capacity, Lithuania, 2015
10. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Demand by Sector, Estonia, 2015
11. Electricity Industry Profiles: Installed Forecast, Estonia, 2015, 2020, and 2030
12. Electricity Industry Profiles: Power Capacity Investment, Estonia, 2015–2020 and 2020–2030
13. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Participants’ Installed Capacity, Estonia, 2015
14. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Demand by Sector, Latvia, 2015
15. Electricity Industry Profiles: Installed Forecast, Latvia, 2015, 2020, and 2030
16. Electricity Industry Profiles: Power Capacity Investment, Latvia, 2015–2020, 2020–2030
17. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Participants’ Installed Capacity, Latvia, 2015
18. Electricity Industry Profiles: Electricity Demand by Sector, Lithuania, 2015
19. Electricity Industry Profiles: Installed Forecast, Lithuania, 2015, 2020, and 2030
20. Electricity Industry Profiles: Power Capacity Investment, Lithuania, 2015–2020 and 2020–2030
21. Electricity Industry Profiles: Key Market Participants’ Installed Capacity, Lithuania, 2015



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