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Significant Investment Opportunities as Ireland Seeks to Transform and Decarbonise its Energy System
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The island of Ireland is readying itself for a major market transformation as SEM (Single Electricity Market) design, being incompatible with the European Target Model is being replaced by the Integrated Single Electricity Market (I-SEM) late 2017, if everything goes according to plan. Keeping that aside, the progress by renewable energy especially wind is worth taking note of. Wind accounted for 24% of the electricity generated in 2015, especially onshore making up 98%. Our forecasts predict that wind generation could account for 41% of the electricity generated in 2030. Other RES generation sources which will supplement wind are bio energy and hydro energy. Ireland has no big commercial solar generation currently but this situation is likely to change in the future. Wholesale Investments, mainly in renewable energy is expected to touch €3.1billion by 2020 with majority of investments already underway. Our Analysis indicates that the generation capacity is likely to grow 20% by 2020, mainly from RES generation. Energy efficiency has already contributed €700 million till now and SEAI (Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland) estimates that the likely contribution could achieve €1billion in savings by 2020. This shows significant importance given by Irish Energy Policy makers towards energy efficiency and also its effectiveness. Fossil fuel dependency and lack of competition are the key challenges facing policymakers. Ireland depends on GB majorly for gas. About 80% of the gas is supplied by GB, but the operation of corrib gas fields in the west coast could decrease its dependency by 30% for two years until its production hits peak which is late 2017. Fortunately for Ireland, gas prices have fallen recently. Facilitation of competition is required for the industry as monopolies continue to dominate across wholesale and retail markets. Inland and cross border interconnection will be bolstered by North South and Celtic interconnectors respectively. The latter of the both will connect Ireland with France. This is likely to integrate Ireland with the rest of EU and ensure security of supply. Ireland’s major transformation in its electricity market design will bring real time price reflections of the system activity, something which was absent in SEM. Key Questions that this Study will Answer• Where does major investment opportunities lie going ahead for the industry which is undergoing a period of transformation? • Which generation technology is going to drive wholesale generation investments out to 2030? • What are the key driver's and restraints of this market? • Which are the major power projects and when are they likely to be commissioned and what impact are they likely to bring? • Who are the major players and what are the recent trends in the market?
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