Electricity Industry Profiles—Poland and Hungary

Need to Replace Ageing Power Plant Capacity Will Result in Nearly €50 Billion Invested in New Plants by 2030

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Poland will remain dependent on coal-fired generation, with 5GW of new capacity under construction. Installed capacity will decline by 2030, but coal will still account for 46% of electricity supply based on current policies. Wind energy was a promising market in Poland, but the changes in the law regarding turbines and proximity to buildings and forests has led to a collapse in investment. Despite the poor prospects for wind, investment prior to the announcement and strong investment in bioenergy mean that Poland is in line to meet the EU 2020 target. A total of €33.9 billion will be invested by 2030 in new power generation capacity—a mix of coal, gas, nuclear and bioenergy.

Political and regulatory uncertainty and ineffective financial support are the biggest challenges facing investors in Hungary. Their appetite in the power sector does not favour risk. Hungarian electricity prices are below the European average, as the country benefits from low-cost nuclear electricity and also a significant energy portion from coal. There has also been pressure on the government to limit price increases to avoid further political problems. Renewable investment has mainly been focused on biomass and a modest investment in wind energy. Hungary is expected to exceed its 2020 target of 13% of electricity from renewable energy sources by around 1.5%. Expansion of the Paks nuclear plant will significantly boost Hungary’s power capacity and reduce the dependence on imports.

Table of Contents

Electricity Industry Profiles—Poland and HungaryExecutive SummaryExecutive Summary—PolandExecutive Summary—HungaryScope and MethodologyResearch ScopeResearch ProfileForecasting MethodologyElectricity Industry in PolandKey FindingsMarket Drivers Drivers ExplainedMarket RestraintsRestraints ExplainedElectricity Market OverviewEnergy Policy Energy Policy (continued)Fuel Mix ForecastInstalled Capacity ForecastPower Investment ForecastSupport Mechanisms and Major IncentivesCompetitive Environment—Generation Electricity Distribution Market Electricity Retail Market Transmission NetworkElectricity Industry in HungaryKey FindingsMarket Drivers Drivers ExplainedMarket RestraintsRestraints ExplainedElectricity Market OverviewEnergy PolicyEnergy Policy (continued)Fuel Mix ForecastInstalled Capacity ForecastPower Investment ForecastSupport Mechanisms and Major IncentivesElectricity GenerationElectricity Distribution MarketElectricity Retail MarketTransmission NetworkGrowth Opportunities and Companies to ActionGrowth Opportunity 1—Business ModelsGrowth Opportunity 2—Vertical IntegrationStrategic Imperatives for Power and Energy CompaniesLegal DisclaimerThe Frost & Sullivan StoryThe Frost & Sullivan StoryValue Proposition—Future of Your Company & CareerGlobal PerspectiveIndustry Convergence360º Research PerspectiveImplementation ExcellenceOur Blue Ocean Strategy




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