Global Economic Outlook, 2017

Global Economic Outlook, 2017

Geopolitical Events and Restrained Demand to Boost Economic Uncertainty

RELEASE DATE
22-Mar-2017
REGION
Global
Research Code: K15E-01-00-00-00
SKU: CI00250-GL-MO_19810

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Description

The year 2017 will be the sixth year of global stagnation and the global economic outlook indicates a slow-growing global economy, ranging from 3.0% to 3.4% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Global economic growth and business confidence have had a mixed impact thus far. The world has entered a period of greater geopolitical uncertainty. Geopolitical events, restrained demand, and weak investments will take a toll on the global growth trajectory. Lack of business confidence due to global uncertainties will make investors wait and watch, which in turn could slow the progress further. In 2017, the US economy is likely to pick up modestly from stronger business confidence. Internal economic activity in Europe and Japan is also stronger. However, uncertainties of different kinds are weighing down on emerging markets’ growth prospects. The question of rising interest rates is a fundamental one in 2017. In the short term the interest rates have gone up because of the US election. Having said that, there are more fundamental forces that are supporting a sustainable rate rise across the world. All major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and even the Bank of Japan have started withdrawing from an accommodative monetary policy since 2016. This progressive withdrawal of accommodative monetary policy will ensure that the rate rise is actually sustainable. On the positive side, oil and commodity prices are expected to recover somewhat. The outlook for advanced economies has improved for 2017–2018 due to stronger activity in the second half of 2016 as well as an expected fiscal stimulus in the US. Given this, businesses need to stay focused on strengthening growth factors, such as technology, innovation, skills, and possible disruptive forces. Down the road, new digital tools and technology could increase workers’ productivity everywhere. Businesses can prepare for their own disruptions and invest in their own disruptive strategies. It will be fruitful to leverage digital technology to strengthen the capabilities of the workforce so that they can be used more productively. These measures can help shorten the long period of slow global growth.
The key questions that this Frost & Sullivan research will answer are:
•     What is the global macroeconomic outlook? Will global growth gain pace in 2017?
•     What are the top economic trends of 2017?
•     What are the most important economic predictions of 2017?
•     How can major geopolitical events affect global growth?
•     What will be the future of trade, investments, interest rates, inflation, oil and commodity prices in 2017?
•     What are the region-specific growth trends, risks, and policy challenges?

Table of Contents

Top Economic Trends 2017

Top Economic Predictions 2017

Top Prediction in 2017—Advanced Countries

Top Predictions in 2017—BRICS Nations

World’s 20 Largest Economies in 2016

World’s 20 Fastest Growing Economies in 2016 and 2017

World Economic Snapshot—2015 to 2017

Other Macroeconomic Highlights—2017

Major Industry Highlights—2017

Research Scope

Definitions of Indicators and Measurements

Global Economic Growth Remained Lacklustre in 2016

Emerging Economies Projected a Diverse Growth Scenario

Lower Oil and Commodity Prices are Set for Recovery

Exchange Rate Movements

Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade

Global GDP Outlook—2017

Global Inflation Outlook—2017

Global Trade Position—2017

Global Investment Position—2017

Europe

North America

Latin America

The Middle East and Africa

Top Trends by Region in 2017

Key Conclusions

List of Figures
  • 1. Key Trends by Regions, Global, 2016–2017
List of Charts
  • 1. 20 Largest Economies, Global, 2016
  • 2. GDP Growth: Top 20 Fastest Growing Economies, Global, 2015–2017
  • 3. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Global, 2015–2017
  • 4. Real GDP Growth, Global, 2010–2016
  • 5. Real GDP Growth, Emerging Countries, 2010–2016
  • 6. Crude Oil Prices, Global, 2013–2016
  • 7. Commodity Price Indices, Global, 2013–2016
  • 8. Exchange Rate Versus the US Dollar, BRICS, 2013–2016
  • 9. Exchange Rate Versus the US Dollar, Europe and Japan, 2013–2016
  • 10. Industrial Production and Merchandise Exports, Global, 2013–2016
  • 11. Real GDP Growth, Global, 2013–2017
  • 12. Inflation, Global, 2013–2017
  • 13. Total Trade, Global, 2010–2017
  • 14. FDI Inflows, Global, 2000–2015
  • 15. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Europe, 2016 and 2017
  • 16. Trade, GDP, and Unemployment, Europe, 2010-2020
  • 17. Inflation in Selected Countries and Oil Price, Europe, 2013–2016
  • 18. Macroeconomic Indicators, UK, 2010–2020
  • 19. Exports and Imports, UK, 2010–2020
  • 20. GDP Growth, North America, 2011–2017
  • 21. Trade and Domestic Demand, North America, 2011–2017
  • 22. GDP Growth by Region, Global, 2011–2017
  • 23. Non-energy Commodity Price Index, Global, 2013–2016
  • 24. Nominal GDP, Top 10 Largest Latin American Economies, 2015–2017
  • 25. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2017
  • 26. Movement of Yuan, China, 2013–2016
  • 27. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, The Middle East, 2016 and 2017
  • 28. OPEC Real Net Oil Export Revenues, 2011–2017
  • 29. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Africa, 2016 and 2017
  • 30. Inflation of Selected Countries, Africa, 2011–2017
Related Research
The year 2017 will be the sixth year of global stagnation and the global economic outlook indicates a slow-growing global economy, ranging from 3.0% to 3.4% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Global economic growth and business confidence have had a mixed impact thus far. The world has entered a period of greater geopolitical uncertainty. Geopolitical events, restrained demand, and weak investments will take a toll on the global growth trajectory. Lack of business confidence due to global uncertainties will make investors wait and watch, which in turn could slow the progress further. In 2017, the US economy is likely to pick up modestly from stronger business confidence. Internal economic activity in Europe and Japan is also stronger. However, uncertainties of different kinds are weighing down on emerging markets’ growth prospects. The question of rising interest rates is a fundamental one in 2017. In the short term the interest rates have gone up because of the US election. Having said that, there are more fundamental forces that are supporting a sustainable rate rise across the world. All major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and even the Bank of Japan have started withdrawing from an accommodative monetary policy since 2016. This progressive withdrawal of accommodative monetary policy will ensure that the rate rise is actually sustainable. On the positive side, oil and commodity prices are expected to recover somewhat. The outlook for advanced economies has improved for 2017–2018 due to stronger activity in the second half of 2016 as well as an expected fiscal stimulus in the US. Given this, businesses need to stay focused on strengthening growth factors, such as technology, innovation, skills, and possible disruptive forces. Down the road, new digital tools and technology could increase workers’ productivity everywhere. Businesses can prepare for their own disruptions and invest in their own disruptive strategies. It will
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Table of Contents | Executive Summary~ || Top Economic Trends 2017~ || Top Economic Predictions 2017~ || Top Prediction in 2017—Advanced Countries~ || Top Predictions in 2017—BRICS Nations~ || World’s 20 Largest Economies in 2016~ || World’s 20 Fastest Growing Economies in 2016 and 2017~ || World Economic Snapshot—2015 to 2017~ || Other Macroeconomic Highlights—2017~ || Major Industry Highlights—2017~ | Research Scope, Objectives and Definitions~ || Research Scope~ || Definitions of Indicators and Measurements~ | Global Economy in 2016~ || Global Economic Growth Remained Lacklustre in 2016~ || Emerging Economies Projected a Diverse Growth Scenario~ || Lower Oil and Commodity Prices are Set for Recovery~ || Exchange Rate Movements~ || Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade~ | Global Outlook for 2017~ || Global GDP Outlook—2017~ || Global Inflation Outlook—2017~ || Global Trade Position—2017~ || Global Investment Position—2017~ | Regional Outlook 2017~ || Europe~ ||| Europe—Gradual Growth; Trade Uncertainty Hampers Investment~ ||| Europe Economic Outlook—2017~ ||| UK—Brexit Uncertainty and Inflation Drags Economic Growth Down~ ||| Europe 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges~ || North America~ ||| North America—Strong Growth in US; Canada Recovers~ ||| North America 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges~ || Latin America~ ||| Latin America—Economic Contraction in 2016, Recovery in 2017~ ||| Largest Economies in Latin America: What is the Outlook?~ ||| Latin America 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges~ ||| Asia Pacific~ ||| Asia-Pacific—Buoyed Confidence and Demand Recovery~ ||| Asia-Pacific 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges~ || The Middle East and Africa~ ||| The Middle East— Faint Oil Price Recovery, Conflicts Obstruct Growth~ ||| Africa—Slow Oil Price Recovery and Weak Demand Dampen Growth ~ ||| The Middle East and Africa 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges~ || Top Trends by Region in 2017~ || Key Conclusions~ | Frost & Sullivan Story~
List of Charts and Figures 1. Key Trends by Regions, Global, 2016–2017~| 1. 20 Largest Economies, Global, 2016~ 2. GDP Growth: Top 20 Fastest Growing Economies, Global, 2015–2017~ 3. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Global, 2015–2017 ~ 4. Real GDP Growth, Global, 2010–2016~ 5. Real GDP Growth, Emerging Countries, 2010–2016~ 6. Crude Oil Prices, Global, 2013–2016~ 7. Commodity Price Indices, Global, 2013–2016~ 8. Exchange Rate Versus the US Dollar, BRICS, 2013–2016~ 9. Exchange Rate Versus the US Dollar, Europe and Japan, 2013–2016~ 10. Industrial Production and Merchandise Exports, Global, 2013–2016~ 11. Real GDP Growth, Global, 2013–2017~ 12. Inflation, Global, 2013–2017~ 13. Total Trade, Global, 2010–2017~ 14. FDI Inflows, Global, 2000–2015~ 15. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Europe, 2016 and 2017~ 16. Trade, GDP, and Unemployment, Europe, 2010-2020~ 17. Inflation in Selected Countries and Oil Price, Europe, 2013–2016~ 18. Macroeconomic Indicators, UK, 2010–2020~ 19. Exports and Imports, UK, 2010–2020~ 20. GDP Growth, North America, 2011–2017~ 21. Trade and Domestic Demand, North America, 2011–2017~ 22. GDP Growth by Region, Global, 2011–2017~ 23. Non-energy Commodity Price Index, Global, 2013–2016~ 24. Nominal GDP, Top 10 Largest Latin American Economies, 2015–2017~ 25. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2017~ 26. Movement of Yuan, China, 2013–2016~ 27. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, The Middle East, 2016 and 2017~ 28. OPEC Real Net Oil Export Revenues, 2011–2017~ 29. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Africa, 2016 and 2017~ 30. Inflation of Selected Countries, Africa, 2011–2017~
Author Sanghamitra Chatterjee
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number K15E-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No