Global Economic Outlook, 2017

Geopolitical Events and Restrained Demand to Boost Economic Uncertainty

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The year 2017 will be the sixth year of global stagnation and the global economic outlook indicates a slow-growing global economy, ranging from 3.0% to 3.4% Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Global economic growth and business confidence have had a mixed impact thus far. The world has entered a period of greater geopolitical uncertainty. Geopolitical events, restrained demand, and weak investments will take a toll on the global growth trajectory. Lack of business confidence due to global uncertainties will make investors wait and watch, which in turn could slow the progress further. In 2017, the US economy is likely to pick up modestly from stronger business confidence. Internal economic activity in Europe and Japan is also stronger. However, uncertainties of different kinds are weighing down on emerging markets’ growth prospects. The question of rising interest rates is a fundamental one in 2017. In the short term the interest rates have gone up because of the US election. Having said that, there are more fundamental forces that are supporting a sustainable rate rise across the world. All major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and even the Bank of Japan have started withdrawing from an accommodative monetary policy since 2016. This progressive withdrawal of accommodative monetary policy will ensure that the rate rise is actually sustainable. On the positive side, oil and commodity prices are expected to recover somewhat. The outlook for advanced economies has improved for 2017–2018 due to stronger activity in the second half of 2016 as well as an expected fiscal stimulus in the US. Given this, businesses need to stay focused on strengthening growth factors, such as technology, innovation, skills, and possible disruptive forces. Down the road, new digital tools and technology could increase workers’ productivity everywhere. Businesses can prepare for their own disruptions and invest in their own disruptive strategies. It will be fruitful to leverage digital technology to strengthen the capabilities of the workforce so that they can be used more productively. These measures can help shorten the long period of slow global growth.
The key questions that this Frost & Sullivan research will answer are:
•     What is the global macroeconomic outlook? Will global growth gain pace in 2017?
•     What are the top economic trends of 2017?
•     What are the most important economic predictions of 2017?
•     How can major geopolitical events affect global growth?
•     What will be the future of trade, investments, interest rates, inflation, oil and commodity prices in 2017?
•     What are the region-specific growth trends, risks, and policy challenges?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Top Economic Trends 2017
Top Economic Predictions 2017
Top Prediction in 2017—Advanced Countries
Top Predictions in 2017—BRICS Nations
World’s 20 Largest Economies in 2016
World’s 20 Fastest Growing Economies in 2016 and 2017
World Economic Snapshot—2015 to 2017
Other Macroeconomic Highlights—2017
Major Industry Highlights—2017
2. Research Scope, Objectives and Definitions
Research Scope
Definitions of Indicators and Measurements
3. Global Economy in 2016
Global Economic Growth Remained Lacklustre in 2016
Emerging Economies Projected a Diverse Growth Scenario
Lower Oil and Commodity Prices are Set for Recovery
Exchange Rate Movements
Industrial Production and Merchandise Trade
4. Global Outlook for 2017
Global GDP Outlook—2017
Global Inflation Outlook—2017
Global Trade Position—2017
Global Investment Position—2017
5. Regional Outlook 2017
Europe
Europe—Gradual Growth; Trade Uncertainty Hampers Investment
Europe Economic Outlook—2017
UK—Brexit Uncertainty and Inflation Drags Economic Growth Down
Europe 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges
North America
North America—Strong Growth in US; Canada Recovers
North America 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges
Latin America
Latin America—Economic Contraction in 2016, Recovery in 2017
Largest Economies in Latin America: What is the Outlook?
Latin America 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges
Asia Pacific
Asia-Pacific—Buoyed Confidence and Demand Recovery
Asia-Pacific 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges
The Middle East and Africa
The Middle East— Faint Oil Price Recovery, Conflicts Obstruct Growth
Africa—Slow Oil Price Recovery and Weak Demand Dampen Growth
The Middle East and Africa 2017—Risks and Policy Challenges
Top Trends by Region in 2017
Key Conclusions
6. Frost & Sullivan Story


List of Figures & Charts

1. Key Trends by Regions, Global, 2016–2017


1. 20 Largest Economies, Global, 2016
2. GDP Growth: Top 20 Fastest Growing Economies, Global, 2015–2017
3. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Global, 2015–2017
4. Real GDP Growth, Global, 2010–2016
5. Real GDP Growth, Emerging Countries, 2010–2016
6. Crude Oil Prices, Global, 2013–2016
7. Commodity Price Indices, Global, 2013–2016
8. Exchange Rate Versus the US Dollar, BRICS, 2013–2016
9. Exchange Rate Versus the US Dollar, Europe and Japan, 2013–2016
10. Industrial Production and Merchandise Exports, Global, 2013–2016
11. Real GDP Growth, Global, 2013–2017
12. Inflation, Global, 2013–2017
13. Total Trade, Global, 2010–2017
14. FDI Inflows, Global, 2000–2015
15. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Europe, 2016 and 2017
16. Trade, GDP, and Unemployment, Europe, 2010-2020
17. Inflation in Selected Countries and Oil Price, Europe, 2013–2016
18. Macroeconomic Indicators, UK, 2010–2020
19. Exports and Imports, UK, 2010–2020
20. GDP Growth, North America, 2011–2017
21. Trade and Domestic Demand, North America, 2011–2017
22. GDP Growth by Region, Global, 2011–2017
23. Non-energy Commodity Price Index, Global, 2013–2016
24. Nominal GDP, Top 10 Largest Latin American Economies, 2015–2017
25. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2017
26. Movement of Yuan, China, 2013–2016
27. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, The Middle East, 2016 and 2017
28. OPEC Real Net Oil Export Revenues, 2011–2017
29. GDP Growth of Selected Countries, Africa, 2016 and 2017
30. Inflation of Selected Countries, Africa, 2011–2017



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