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Global GDP Growth Expected to Rise from 3.6% in 2017 to 3.7% in 2018 Supported by Increased Trade Flows, Higher Investments, and Strong Domestic Demand
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Amidst seismic events such as Brexit and oil production cuts, what is the outlook for the world economy in 2018? How will monetary policy tightening and landmark tax reforms influence the growth trajectory of key advanced and emerging market economies? This study answers these questions and more by evaluating the global and regional economic outlook across geographies. World GDP growth is estimated to have risen to 3.6% in 2017 and is expected to further strengthen to 3.7% in 2018, with higher growth expected across emerging markets and developing economies. In regards to emerging market giants, China is expected to witness a marginal growth slowdown in 2018 with the deepening of structural reforms; India’s growth is expected to rise in 2018-19. Advanced economies are expected to maintain the same growth level as in 2017, with an expected pick-up in growth across advanced economies such as the United States, France, and Japan. Landmark tax reforms were one of the top economic trends shaping the global economy in 2017, with India’s introduction of a goods and services tax (GST), and the United States’ approval of a tax reform bill. The significant slash in the US corporate tax rate is expected to help drive economic growth as well as manufacturing reshoring. The UAE and Saudi Arabia also introduced value-added tax (VAT) in January 2018; other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are only expected to do so by 2019. The inflationary impact of VAT in the UAE and Saudi Arabia is expected to be limited, with the new tax helping to boost and diversify government revenue. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have been able to drive oil prices higher to an extent as a result of agreed production cuts. While the production cuts were set to expire in March 2018, the participating countries recently decided to extend to effective period for the cuts till 2018 end. This decision should help crude oil prices further strengthen in 2018, although higher US production stands to thwart significant price gains.
The global economic outlook section of this study covers topics in regards to GDP growth, inflation, trade, investment, and oil production, while the region economic outlook section covers topics in regards to GDP growth and key economic developments. Regions covered in the study include North America, Latin America, Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Asia-Pacific.
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