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RNG Powering the Global Natural Gas Truck and Bus Market, 2020–2030
RNG Powering the Global Natural Gas Truck and Bus Market, 2020–2030
Governments to Develop/Expand the Fueling Infrastructure Presents Growth Opportunities
20-Jul-2020
Global
Description
The medium duty (MD) and heavy duty (HD) truck and bus market will show strong recovery globally after a major dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 crisis which will affect production as well as sales across regions. The crisis will also have a profound effect on the adoption of natural gas (NG) powered truck and buses, with China and Europe witnessing almost a 60% and 50% decline in MD-HD truck sales respectively in 2020. North America (NA) which posted historic high MD-HD truck sales in 2018 and 2019 will also be hit considerably. With China already recovering from the crisis and the push by governments in Europe and NA to revive the economies, it is expected that a positive impact will be felt on the NG market after 2021.
The global NG MD and HD truck market is expected to grow to ~490,000 units in 2030 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6%. India and South America will be the highest growing markets between 2019 and 2030 with a CAGR of 30.2% and 31.8% respectively.
Stringent emission regulations, volatility in crude oil prices, and technology development which effectively reduce the total cost of ownership (TCO) of NG commercial vehicles (CVs) are some of the key factors driving the adoption of NG as a fuel for these vehicles. Abundance of NG reserves and LNG trade will lead to low prices of NG in Europe and North America. Asia will also benefit as there will be an oversupply of the fuel. In China, NG pricing is transforming from a cost plus pricing approach to market pricing, with the creation of gas spot trade exchanges at Chongqing and Shanghai. Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) produced from a number of sources will be the key to increasing the adoption of NG vehicles. Some countries in Europe are already on the way with more than 90% of the NG vehicles running on RNG. Use of RNG in NG vehicles is expected to increase to almost 50% by 2030.
Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) will be the most preferred type of NG fuel; however, most NG trucks in China run on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which is most profitable for long-haul applications. Spark ignition (SI) technology will boost its market position due to its low cost and wide installation base, thus facilitating future development. High Pressure Direct Ignition (HPDI) technology will also increase its penetration into LNG CI trucks in the long-haul segment.
The NG MD and HD truck & bus market also faces stiff competition from the electric equivalents. MD and HD truck OEMs are making giant strides towards electrification after being slow and reticent in adopting the technology earlier. The adoption of NG powertrains is expected to show high growth rates till 2025, after which it is expected to drop. The global MD and HD bus market faces stiff competition from electric buses, especially in China. With many European and US bus OEMs looking at the electrification route, these regions will also witness slower growth rates during the forecast period.
Author: Vineeth Purushotham
Table of Contents
Executive Summary—Key Findings
Global NG CV Market—2030 Outlook for Key Regions
OEM New Dedicated Platforms—Powertrain Flexibility Comparison
Global NG CV Market Snapshot
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions this Study will Answer
Research Background
Research Methodology
Key OEMs and Suppliers Compared in this Study
Vehicle Segmentation
Definitions
CV Industry Ecosystem—Focal Range of This Research Deliverable
Key Factors Impacting the NG CV Market
Legislative Factors—Analysis
Economic Factors—Analysis
Use Case Analysis—NG Truck
Use Case Analysis—NG Bus
Global MD & HD Truck Market—Unit Shipment Forecast by Region
Global MD & HD Truck Market—Regional Split
Global MD & HD Bus Market—Unit Shipment Forecast by Region
Global MD & HD Bus Market—Regional Split
Shale Reserves and Production Snapshot
Shale Gas and its Impact on NG Adoption
NG Trade by Region
Global NG Incentives Landscape
Growing Prominence of RNG
RNG—Considerable Reductions in Well-to-Wheel Emissions Even Compared to Electric Alternatives
RNG as a Transportation Fuel across the Globe
NG Price Dynamics
NG Price Breakup
Diesel–NG Price Differential
Global NG CV Market Snapshot
Global Regulatory Outlook
Global NG Truck & Bus Market—Key Driving Factors
COVID Impact on MD- HD Truck Sales in NA, Europe & China
Global NG Truck Market—Unit Shipment Forecast
NG MD-HD Truck Market—Regional Unit Shipment Split by Fuel Type
Global NG Bus Market—Unit Shipment Forecast
MD-HD NG CV Technology Mapping by Region
MD-HD Truck Primary Application Technology Mapping
NG OEMs and Engine Supplier Activity by Region
China—Key Influencing Trends
China—NG Reserves
China—NG Station Overview
China MD-HD NG Truck Market—Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
China MD-HD Truck Market—Powertrain Penetration
China MD-HD NG Truck Market—NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
China MD-HD NG Truck Market—OEM Product Portfolio
China MD–HD NG Bus Market—Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
China MD-HD Bus Market—NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
NA—Key Influencing Trends
CARB Ultra-low NOx Regulations—Impact on Powertrains
NA MD–HD NG Truck Market—Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
NA MD-HD Truck Market—Powertrain Penetration
NA MD-HD Truck Market—NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
NA MD-HD NG Truck Market—OEM Product Portfolio
NA MD–HD NG Bus Market—Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
NA MD-HD Bus Market—NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
Europe—Key Influencing Trends
Europe—Shale Gas Reserves
Europe—NG Fueling Infrastructure Overview
Europe MD–HD NG Truck Market—Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
Europe MD-HD Truck Market—Powertrain Penetration
Europe MD-HD Truck Market—NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
Europe MD-HD NG Truck Market—OEM Product Portfolio
Comparative Analysis of Major European Countries
Europe MD–HD NG Bus Market—Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis
Europe MD-HD Bus Market—NG Fuel Type and Ignition Technology
Indonesia—Key Influencing Trends
Japan—Key Influencing Trends
Australia—Key Influencing Trends
Russia—Key Influencing Trends
Operational Cost/Mile Comparison—Assumptions
Diesel, NG, and Electric Truck Weight Benchmark
NG Truck—Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown
Diesel, NG, and Electric Truck Operational CPM Comparison
Operational Cost/ Mile ($/Mile)- Diesel vs. Electric vs. NG
Growth Opportunity 1—Need to Expand Product Portfolio
Strategic Imperatives
Future Outlook—2030
Legal Disclaimer
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
Learn More—Next Steps
Market Engineering Methodology
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
Popular Topics
| No Index | No |
|---|---|
| Podcast | No |
| Author | Vineeth Purushotham |
| Industries | Automotive |
| WIP Number | K3A1-01-00-00-00 |
| Is Prebook | No |
| GPS Codes | 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6 |