Global Powertrain Outlook, 2017

Diesel to be an Expensive Variant, E-Mobility and 48V to Boom, and Unconventional Gasoline Engine Technologies to Surface

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2016 was a pivotal year for powertrain technologies globally as the fallout from Volkswagen’s Dieselgate scandal continued to reverberate. Diesel sales are declining in some regions as electric vehicle sales boom. OEMs are under pressure to meet fleet emission mandates and consumer demand for advanced technologies to improve performance. This study provides an analysis of powertrain technologies, discusses powertrain industry highlights from 2016, and looks at the trends that will shape the industry in 2017 and beyond. Major markets covered are the Europe, North America, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey.

Technologies and trends including engine downsizing and rightsizing, direct injection, turbocharging, and aftertreatment systems are examined. Shifts in acceptance of diesel engines and hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains are discussed. Significant vehicle, engine, and transmission launches are detailed.

Key questions this study will answer:
•     What are the overall growth trends for vehicles of various fuel types?
•     Have the sales diesel cars taken a hit?
•     What are the implications of the new emission and testing regulations on the growth of diesel engine technologies?
•     What are the current e-mobility trends? What factors are working for and against its growth and what are they developments to expect in
the coming years?
•     What are the technology trends to look for in the industry as it moves towards stronger emission regulations?
•     What powertrain strategies are being adopted by different OEMs in order to comply with upcoming emission and fuel economy standards?
•     What are the latest technologies that will help to optimize internal combustion engines to meet fuel efficiency standards?
•     The study concludes with strategic recommendations for market participants on new testing procedures, diesel investments, alternative
propulsion technologies, and market focus.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Key Findings
Key Technologies to Watch
Powertrain Sales and Technology Outlook
WLTP Implementation
Diesel Powertrains in Europe—Impact Factors and Outlook
Global EV Adoption Momentum
Trump Presidency and Impact on US Fuel Economy Regulations
Top Predictions for 2017
2. Research Scope and Segmentation
Research Scope
Vehicle Segmentation
3. Market Overview
Global Powertrain Mix—Sales Snapshot
Powertrain Split by Propulsion Type
RDE Impact
Global Push for Electrified Powertrains—2020 Outlook
4. Powertrain Outlook—Europe
Europe—Sales Forecast
Passenger Car Sales Trends
RDE Testing Overview
Emissions Target, Fines, and RDE Development
Technologies for Control of NOx Emissions for Euro 6c Compliance
Powertrain Highlights—Europe
5. Powertrain Outlook—North America
North America—Sales Forecast by Powertrain and OEM
2017 Imperatives
US Diesel Car Sales
Expected New LDT Models by Segment
Technology Update—Fuel Economy Improvements
Powertrain Highlights—North America
6. Powertrain Outlook—China
China—Sales Forecast by Powertrain
2022 Sales Forecast by Powertrain and Vehicle Segment
Market Breakdown by Powertrain Growth
Powertrain Development Roadmap
Technology Development Roadmap
Vehicle Launch Roadmap Key Chinese OEMs
Powertrain Highlights—China
7. Powertrain Outlook—Japan
Japan—Sales Forecast by OEM and Propulsion
Japan—Production Forecast by Segment
PHEV Uptake
EV Infrastructure
Powertrain Highlights—Japan
8. Powertrain Outlook—South Korea
South Korea—Sales Forecast by OEM and Powertrain
Powertrain Highlights—South Korea
9. Regional Outlook—India
Fluctuating Crude Oil Prices—Gas-Diesel Equation
Powertrain Sales Share by OEM
Bharat Stage IV to VI Transformation—Reduction in Emission Caps
Technology Outlook—Bharat Stage VI and CAFE Compliance
10. Powertrain Highlights—India
Regional Outlook—Turkey
Turkey—Sales Forecast by OEM and Powertrain
Turkey—Sales Forecast by Segment and Powertrain
11. Powertrain Highlights—Turkey
12. Powertrain Technology Outlook
From NEDC to WLTP—Diesel and Gasoline NOx Emissions Comparison
Modular Powertrain Technology Sharing Outlook
Advanced Powertrain Technology Update
48V Technology Market Overview and OEM Perspective
48V Architecture—OEM Strategies
48V Sales Forecast by Region
48V Sales Scenario Analysis
Lightweighting Approaches
Key Trends in Transmissions
Transmission Electrification and Hybridization
Electronically Controlled Clutch and Coasting
Engine Rightsizing, Future of Aftertreatment Systems
Global Aftertreatment Market—Comparative Analysis by Region
Comparative Analysis of Exhaust Aftertreatment Systems
Roadmap of OEM Exhaust Aftertreatment Strategies
OEM Exhaust Aftertreatment Strategies
13. 2016–2017 Powertrain and Vehicle Launches to Watch
Key 2016–17 Market Introductions—Engines
Key 2016–17 Market Introductions—Transmissions
Key 2016–17 Market Introductions—Vehicles
PHEV Launch Roadmap
14. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
Breakthrough Trends and Start-Ups
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
Conclusions and Future Outlook
15. Conclusions and Outlook
Legal Disclaimer
16. Appendix
Abbreviation List


List of Figures & Charts

1. Powertrain Outlook: Key Findings, Global, 2016
2. Powertrain Outlook: Key Technologies to Watch, Global, 2017–2020
3. Powertrain Outlook: Sales and Technology Outlook, Selected Regions, 2016–2017
4. Powertrain Outlook: Sales and Technology Outlook, Selected Regions, 2016–2017
5. Powertrain Outlook: Impact of Trump Presidency, US, 2017
6. Powertrain Outlook: Top Predictions, Global, 2017
7. Powertrain Outlook: RDE Impact, Europe, 2016
8. Powertrain Outlook: Emission Target, Fines, and RDE Compliance, Europe, 2016
9. Powertrain Outlook: Key Technologies to Control NOx Emissions, Europe, 2016
10. Powertrain Outlook: Key Technologies to Control NOx Emissions, Europe, 2016
11. Powertrain Outlook: Diesel Sales by OEM, US, 2016–2017
12. Powertrain Outlook: Upcoming Models in the LDT Segment, North America, 2017–2020
13. Powertrain Outlook: Market Breakdown by Segment and Powertrain Growth, China, 2016–2022
14. Powertrain Outlook: Powertrain Development Roadmap, China, 2016–2022
15. Powertrain Outlook: Technology Development Roadmap, China, 2016–2022
16. Powertrain Outlook: Key Vehicle Launching Roadmap, China, 2015–2022
17. Powertrain Outlook: Transformation from Bharat Stage IV to VI, India, 2016–2023
18. Powertrain Outlook: Emission Control Solutions by Segment, India, 2016–2023
19. Powertrain Outlook: Segmental Sharing of Powertrain Technologies, Global, 2016-2020
20. Powertrain Outlook: OEM 48V Strategies, Global, 2017
21. Powertrain Outlook: Lightweighting Design and Cost Optimization, Global, 2017–2020
22. Powertrain Outlook: Comparative Analysis by Region, 2016–2020
23. Powertrain Outlook: Technology Sales by Region, 2017and 2020
24. Powertrain Outlook: Roadmap of OEM Aftertreatment Strategies, Global, 2005–2020
25. Powertrain Outlook: OEM Aftertreatment Strategies, Global, 2017
26. Powertrain Outlook: Various OEM Aftertreatment Strategies, Global, 2017
27. Powertrain Outlook: Conclusions and Outlook, Global, 2017


1. Powertrain Outlook: CO2 Emission Targets, Europe, 2010–2025
2. Powertrain Outlook: Diesel Share, Europe, 2011–2020
3. Powertrain Outlook: Expected Light Vehicle Sales by Region and Powertrain, Global, 2017
4. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Split by Propulsion Type, Selected Countries, 2015–2017
5. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Forecast by OEM and Powertrain, Europe, 2016 and 2017
6. Powertrain Outlook: Gasoline vs. Diesel Share, Selected European Countries, 2015–2016
7. Powertrain Outlook: Passenger Vehicle Gasoline vs. Diesel Share and Diesel Sales, Selected European Countries, 2015–2016
8. Powertrain Outlook: RDE Conformity Factors Europe, 2010–2030
9. Powertrain Outlook: CO2 Emission Targets, Europe, 2010–2025
10. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Forecast by Powertrain and OEM, North America, 2016 and 2017
11. Powertrain Outlook: Net sales of Diesel cars, US, 2015 and 2016
12. Powertrain Outlook: Upcoming Models in the LDT Segment, North America, 2017–2020
13. Powertrain Outlook: Downsizing Technology Costs and Benefits, US, 2017-2022
14. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Forecast by Powertrain, China, 2016 and 2017
15. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Forecast by Transmission, China, 2016 and 2017
16. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Forecast by Powertrain and Vehicle Segment, China, 2022
17. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Forecast by OEM and Propulsion, Japan, 2016 and 2017
18. Powertrain Outlook: Unit Production Forecast by Segment, Japan, 2016 and 2017
19. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Split by EV Type, Japan, 2010–2016
20. Powertrain Outlook: EV Market Overview, Japan, 2016
21. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Forecast by OEM and Powertrain, South Korea, 2016 and 2017
22. Powertrain Outlook: Gasoline and Diesel Share, India FY 2013- FY 2018 and FY2023 Scenarios
23. Powertrain Outlook: Powertrain Sales Share by OEM, India , FY 2016 and FY 2018
24. Powertrain Outlook: Expected Light Vehicle Sales Forecast by OEM and Powertrain, Turkey, 2017
25. Powertrain Outlook: Expected Light Vehicle Sales by Segment and Powertrain, Turkey, 2017
26. Powertrain Outlook: Gasoline NOx Emissions Under NEDC and WLTP, Europe, 2017
27. Powertrain Outlook: Diesel NOx Emissions Under NEDC and WLTP, Europe, 2017
28. Powertrain Outlook: Sales Forecast by Region, 2017–2025
29. Powertrain Outlook: 48V Sales Scenario Analysis, Europe, 2016–2025
30. Powertrain Outlook: ZF 8-Speed Hybrid Transmission Advantages
31. Powertrain Outlook: Technology Sales by Region, 2017and 2020



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