Global Powertrain Outlook, 2017

Diesel to be an Expensive Variant, E-Mobility and 48V to Boom, and Unconventional Gasoline Engine Technologies to Surface

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2016 was a pivotal year for powertrain technologies globally as the fallout from Volkswagen’s Dieselgate scandal continued to reverberate. Diesel sales are declining in some regions as electric vehicle sales boom. OEMs are under pressure to meet fleet emission mandates and consumer demand for advanced technologies to improve performance. This study provides an analysis of powertrain technologies, discusses powertrain industry highlights from 2016, and looks at the trends that will shape the industry in 2017 and beyond. Major markets covered are the Europe, North America, Brazil, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. Technologies and trends including engine downsizing and rightsizing, direct injection,

Table of Contents

Executive SummaryKey FindingsKey Technologies to WatchPowertrain Sales and Technology OutlookPowertrain Sales and Technology Outlook (continued)WLTP ImplementationDiesel Powertrains in Europe—Impact Factors and OutlookGlobal EV Adoption MomentumTrump Presidency and Impact on US Fuel Economy RegulationsTop Predictions for 2017Research Scope and SegmentationResearch ScopeVehicle SegmentationMarket OverviewGlobal Powertrain Mix—Sales SnapshotPowertrain Split by Propulsion TypeRDE ImpactGlobal Push for Electrified Powertrains—2020 Outlook Powertrain Outlook—EuropeEurope—Sales ForecastPassenger Car Sales TrendsRDE Testing OverviewEmissions Target, Fines, and RDE DevelopmentTechnologies for Control of NOx Emissions for Euro 6c Compliance Technologies for Control of NOx Emissions for Euro 6c Compliance (continued) Powertrain Highlights—EuropePowertrain Outlook—North America North America—Sales Forecast by Powertrain and OEM2017 ImperativesUS Diesel Car SalesExpected New LDT Models by SegmentTechnology Update—Fuel Economy ImprovementsPowertrain Highlights—North AmericaPowertrain Outlook—ChinaChina—Sales Forecast by Powertrain2022 Sales Forecast by Powertrain and Vehicle SegmentMarket Breakdown by Powertrain GrowthPowertrain Development RoadmapTechnology Development RoadmapVehicle Launch Roadmap Key Chinese OEMsPowertrain Highlights—ChinaPowertrain Outlook—JapanJapan—Sales Forecast by OEM and PropulsionJapan—Production Forecast by SegmentPHEV UptakeEV InfrastructurePowertrain Highlights—JapanPowertrain Outlook—South KoreaSouth Korea—Sales Forecast by OEM and PowertrainPowertrain Highlights—South KoreaRegional Outlook—IndiaFluctuating Crude Oil Prices—Gas-Diesel Equation Powertrain Sales Share by OEMBharat Stage IV to VI Transformation—Reduction in Emission Caps Technology Outlook—Bharat Stage VI and CAFE CompliancePowertrain Highlights—IndiaRegional Outlook—TurkeyTurkey—Sales Forecast by OEM and PowertrainTurkey—Sales Forecast by Segment and PowertrainPowertrain Highlights—TurkeyPowertrain Technology OutlookFrom NEDC to WLTP—Diesel and Gasoline NOx Emissions ComparisonModular Powertrain Technology Sharing Outlook Advanced Powertrain Technology Update48V Technology Market Overview and OEM Perspective48V Architecture—OEM Strategies Lightweighting ApproachesKey Trends in TransmissionsTransmission Electrification and HybridizationElectronically Controlled Clutch and CoastingEngine Rightsizing, Future of Aftertreatment SystemsGlobal Aftertreatment Market—Comparative Analysis by RegionComparative Analysis of Exhaust Aftertreatment SystemsRoadmap of OEM Exhaust Aftertreatment Strategies OEM Exhaust Aftertreatment Strategies OEM Exhaust Aftertreatment Strategies (continued) 2016–2017 Powertrain and Vehicle Launches to WatchKey 2016–17 Market Introductions—EnginesKey 2016–17 Market Introductions—Engines (continued)Key 2016–17 Market Introductions—Engines (continued)Key 2016–17 Market Introductions—TransmissionsKey 2016–17 Market Introductions—VehiclesKey 2016–17 Market Introductions—Vehicles (continued)PHEV Launch RoadmapPHEV Launch Roadmap (continued)Growth Opportunities and Companies to ActionBreakthrough Trends and Start-UpsStrategic Imperatives for Success and Growth Conclusions and Future OutlookConclusions and OutlookLegal DisclaimerAppendixAbbreviation ListAbbreviation List (continued)




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