Donald Trump’s Policy Direction and Analysis of Its Impact on US Manufacturing

Moderate Manufacturing Growth Expected Under the New Administration

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This study explores President Trump’s economic, manufacturing, trade, corporate tax, and environmental policy direction, while evaluating attached benefits and risks for US manufacturing. The study delves into the United States’ overall manufacturing growth outlook while also examining industry-specific outlooks.

Key questions this study will answer:
• What is the growth outlook for US manufacturing in the Trump policy era?
• How will the United States’ withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) affect its trade relations with TPP members and the rest of the world?
• How will renegotiation of or withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) affect US manufacturing exports to and imports from Canada and Mexico?
• How will a proposed 35% import tariff on US firms that lay off domestic workers and construct plants overseas reshape US manufacturing?
• How will a proposed 45% tariff on Chinese imports influence US manufacturing?
• What is the effect of a reduced corporate tax rate on the manufacturing sector?
• How would the likely US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on reduced greenhouse gas emissions affect the competitiveness of US manufacturing exports?

Table of Contents

Donald Trump’s Policy Direction and Analysis of Its Impact on US ManufacturingExecutive SummaryUS Policy PlanningDonald Trump’s Policy Direction and Impact on US ManufacturingUncertainty and Impact Assessment Matrix US MVA Forecast—Scenario AnalysisPresent State of US ManufacturingManufacturing Share in GDP and Export DominanceManufacturing Employment and EstablishmentsPresent State of US Manufacturing—Key TakeawaysImpact Analysis of Donald Trump’s Trade Policy DirectionTPP Withdrawal—An IntroductionTPP Withdrawal—Potential BenefitsTPP Withdrawal—Potential RisksTPP Withdrawal and Impact on US Manufacturing—Key InsightsNAFTA Renegotiation or Withdrawal—An IntroductionNAFTA Renegotiation or Withdrawal—Potential BenefitsNAFTA Renegotiation or Withdrawal—Potential RisksNAFTA Renegotiation or Withdrawal and Impact on US Manufacturing—Key Insights 35% Import Tariff on Firms—An Introduction35% Import Tariff on Firms and Impact on US Manufacturing—Key Insights 45% Tariff on Chinese Imports—An Introduction45% Import Tariff on Chinese Imports and Impact on US Manufacturing—Key Insights Impact Analysis of Donald Trump’s Corporate Tax Rate Policy DirectionLowering of Corporate Tax Rate to 15%—An IntroductionLowering of Corporate Tax Rate to 15% and Impact on US Manufacturing—Key InsightsManufacturing Project AnnouncementsRecent US Manufacturing Project AnnouncementsRecent US Manufacturing Project Announcements (continued)Impact Analysis of Donald Trump’s Environment Policy DirectionEnvironment Policy Direction—An IntroductionEnvironment Policy Direction and Impact on US Manufacturing—Key InsightsIndustry OutlookIndustry Senior Management Top-of-Mind Issues, 2017Industry Vertical Outlook, 2017–2020Industry Vertical Outlook, 2017–2020 (continued)Donald Trump’s Policy Direction and Manufacturing Forecast Scenario AnalysisMVA ForecastScenario AnalysisLegal DisclaimerThe Frost & Sullivan StoryThe Frost & Sullivan StoryValue Proposition—Future of Your Company & CareerGlobal PerspectiveIndustry Convergence360º Research PerspectiveImplementation ExcellenceOur Blue Ocean Strategy

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