Latin American Passenger Vehicle Market Outlook, 2016

Strong Sales Persist Despite Economic Uncertainty, Future to Embrace Powertrain, E-mobility and Connected Cars

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The automotive market in LATAM in 2015 experienced a challenging scenario with the overall market declining. Mexico was the only region where the automotive market grew. This declining trend is expected to continue in 2016. However, the market presents a number of opportunities in the powertrain, e-mobility, connected cars, mobility, and aftermarket sectors. New market entrants and disruptors are reshaping the automotive market in LATAM. This study is a detailed outlook of what to expect from the LATAM passenger vehicle market in 2016— its major disruptive trends, market shifts, and market winners. This report offers a 360-degree overview, before concluding with top predictions and a key outlook for 2016.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2015 Key Highlights
2015–2016 Senior Management’s Top-of-Mind Issues
2016 Top 7 Predictions
2. Research Scope and Segmentation
Research Scope
Passenger Vehicles (PVs)
Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs)
Vehicle Segmentation
3. Key Latin American Automotive Sales Trends
LATAM Economy Outlook
Top Markets by Sales Volume in 2015
LATAM Light Vehicle Sales by Region—2016 Snapshot
Winners of 2015
LATAM Light Vehicle Sales by OEM—2016 Snapshot
LATAM Light Vehicle Sales by OEM and Region—2016 Snapshot
Key Vehicle Launches in LATAM (2014–2016)
Regional Spotlight
Brazil
Brazil (INOVAR Requisite Compliance)
Mexico
Argentina
Chile
Colombia
Peru
4. Major Automotive Trends to Watch
Disruptive Trends in 2016
Key LATAM Growth Segments—B/C-SUVs and B/C-Pick-ups
Impact of the Chinese OEMs
Digitalization—Reshaping the Automotive Retail Process
Future of Mobility in LATAM
Trend Towards Localization Of Manufacturing
Energy Efficiency—Driving Next-Generation Technology in LATAM
Emerging Technologies and Technology Invasion
New Revenue Avenues Through Value-added Services
Connected Services
Smartphone Integration and Infotainment
Financial Services
Insurance Services
CRM and VRM
Mobility Services
5. LATAM Powertrain Trends—2016
2016 Top Powertrain Predictions
LATAM—Emission, Fuel Economy Targets, and Laws
2016 Powertrain Trends for LATAM
Unit Vehicle Sales Forecast by Powertrain Mix by Country
Unit Vehicle Production Forecast by Engine Size and Country
2016 OEM Powertrain Strategy for Gasoline Engines
Key Gasoline Engine Technology Forecast
2016 OEM Powertrain Strategy for Diesel Engines
2016 OEM Powertrain Strategy for Flex Fuel Engines*
Brazil Focus—OEM Technology Strategy for INOVAR Compliance
Brazil—2015 Key Vehicle Energy Efficiency Positioning Snapshot
2016 OEM Powertrain Strategy for Transmissions
Unit Vehicle Sales Forecast by Transmission Mix by Country
6. LATAM e-Mobility Outlook—2016
Key LATAM EV Market Trends
Snapshot of Tax Exemption and Incentives for EVs in Latin America
EV and PHEV Vehicle Introductions in Latin America
Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
7. LATAM Mobility Outlook—2016
Key Mobility Trends and 2016 Outlook
Opportunities in Mobility—Beyond the Product and Towards Services
New Business Models—Reshaping Mobility Landscape in LATAM
Flexible “On-Demand” Mobility—Disruptor Offering for Consumers
Vehicle Sharing Business Models—Comparative Market Positioning
Rising Integrated Mobility (IM) in LATAM
Corporate Mobility—New Revenue Avenue for Automotive Ecosystem
Transit and City Infrastructure—Encouraging New Forms of Mobility
8. LATAM Connected Car Outlook—2016
Key Connected Car Trends and 2016 Outlook
Top Solution Trends
Connected Services Gradually Entering LATAM
Connected Infotainment Offerings Increase in LATAM
Active Safety and Automated Driving—A Niche in LATAM
Re-thinking Automotive Industry and Solutions with Big Data
Future Opportunities—Functional Areas of Connected Car Technology
Future Opportunities—LATAM on the Path to Intelligent Mobility
9. LATAM Aftermarket Outlook—2016
Key Predictions—Aftermarket
New Vehicle Sales
New Sales Channels
Exchange Rate Depreciation
Asian Autoparts
Consumption Parts
Key Highlights of 2016
VIO Forecast per Country for 2016
Total Aftermarket Revenue
10. Key Conclusions
Key Conclusions and 2016 Outlook
Legal Disclaimer
11. Appendix
Market Engineering Methodology
List of Acronyms
2014–2016 Topical Focal Points of the LATAM Automotive and Transportation Program

Infographic



List of Figures & Charts

1. OEM Strategies for INOVAR Compliance: Requisite Compliance Estimate, Brazil, 2015
2. EV Market: Key Trends, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
3. EV Market: Snapshot of Tax Exemption and Incentives, LATAM, 2016
4. EV Market: EV and PHEV Vehicle Introductions*, LATAM, 2016
5. Connected Car Market: Connected Services Snapshot, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
6. Automated Vehicle Market: Functional Roadmap, Global, 2016–2025
7. Connected Car Market: Big Data in the Automotive Industry, LATAM, 2016
8. Automotive Outlook: Top 5 Predictions, Aftermarket, 2015–2016
9. Automotive Outlook: Average Vehicle Age per Country, LATAM, 2015 and 2016


1. Passenger Vehicle Market: Senior Management Top-of-Mind Issues, LATAM, 2015–2016
2. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: GDP Variation by Country, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
3. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales versus GDP Variation, LATAM, 2012–2016
4. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by Region, LATAM, 2014 and 2015
5. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by Region, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
6. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, LATAM, 2014 and 2015
7. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
8. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM and Region, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
9. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Unit Shipment of Key Model Launches, LATAM, 2016
10. Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, Brazil, 2015 and 2016
11. Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, Mexico, 2015 and 2016
12. Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, Argentina, 2015 and 2016
13. Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, Chile, 2015 and 2016
14. Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, Colombia, 2015 and 2016
15. Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by OEM, Peru, 2015 and 2016
16. Passenger Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Sales by Segment, LATAM, 2015
17. Passenger Vehicle Market: Chinese OEM Unit Shipments by Region, LATAM, 2014 and 2015
18. Passenger Vehicle Market: Chinese OEM participation, LATAM, 2015
19. Passenger Vehicle Market: Trend Toward Localization of Manufacturing, LATAM, 2015–2016
20. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Unit Shipment by Powertrain Mix and Country, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
21. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Unit Production by Engine Size, LATAM, 2014–2016
22. Total Passenger Vehicle Market: Unit Production by Number of Cylinders, LATAM, 2014–2016
23. Passenger Vehicle Market: Key Gasoline Engine Technology Forecast, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
24. OEM Strategies for INOVAR Compliance: Requisite Compliance, Brazil, 2016 and 2020
25. OEM Strategies for INOVAR Compliance: Vehicle Positioning, Brazil, 2015
26. Passenger Vehicle Market: Unit Shipment by Transmission Mix and by Country, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
27. EV Market: Key Trends, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
28. EV Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Country, LATAM, 2014–2023
29. Mobility Market: Mobility Integrators, LATAM, 2015–2016
30. Vehicle Fleet and Leasing Market: Vehicle Lease Penetration of Vehicles in Operation, Brazil, 2014‒2020
31. Mobility Market: Bicycle Lanes, Select LATAM Cities, 2015/2016
32. Mobility Market: BRT Corridors and Bus Lanes, Select LATAM Cities, 2015/2016
33. Connected Car Market: Connected Services Subscribers, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
34. Automotive Outlook: VIO Forecast per Country, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
35. Total Aftermarket: Revenue, LATAM, 2015–2016
36. Country Share of Total Revenue, LATAM, 2015 and 2016
37. Passenger Vehicle Market: Key Conclusions and Future Outlook, LATAM, 2016



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