Opportunities in the South African Natural Gas Market, 2015

Opportunities in the South African Natural Gas Market, 2015

Up to 37.8 Million Gigajoules of Fuel Can be Converted to Natural Gas from Existing Sources, Bringing the Total Natural Gas Market to 220.9 Million Gi

RELEASE DATE
31-May-2017
REGION
Africa
Research Code: 9AAE-00-4B-00-00
SKU: EG01755-AF-MR_20039

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Description

South Africa’s energy mix is dominated by coal, complemented by renewable and nuclear energy. The government of South Africa has set targets according to the IRP 2010, which forecasts an energy mix containing a greater contribution from renewable energy such as wind, solar, and hydro. This mix also contains a substantial contribution from gas. The Gas-to-Power programme in South Africa, parallel to the REIPPPP, has been met with delays in recent years. The programme, which is set to procure 3,126MW, is waiting for an instrumental policy document, the Gas Utilisation Master Plan (GUMP), which will determine the role gas plays in South Africa’s energy mix. The document outlines the country’s plans to integrate gas into the energy mix through public-private partnerships.

While the GUMP may be delayed, the Gas-to-Power programme is slowly making gains. Two carefully selected ports have been earmarked to receive gas via a floating storage regasification unit (FSRU). This prevents the risk of stranded assets, should the program be abandoned. The 2 ports were strategically selected due to centrality and demand. Key to the viability and development of the port is an anchor client that would off-take the majority of landed gas. Ports to see this development will be Eastern Cape (Coega: 1000 MW) and KwaZulu-Natal (Richards Bay: 2000 MW), while the Western Cape will no longer see any LNG activity; the Western Cape will continue with LPG production. The excess gas that is imported would be available for use in industries such as automotive, as well as commercial buildings and residential homes. This potential demand for industrial use has been estimated at 37.8 million gigajoules. This value is for industries that make use of other fuels and would be willing to convert their operations to natural gas. Those industries that already make use of natural gas receive their gas Mozambique imports via Sasol, which has the monopoly. Sasol was named the primary gas supplier and distributor for certain identified distribution areas by the Gas Act (2001) until 2014. Despite more than 10 years of this, Sasol remains the sole importer of natural gas into South Africa. The gas is imported from the Temane and Pandae gas fields in Mozambique via the 865 km ROMPCO pipeline.

Risks to the gas economy come from other natural gas sources. The Gas-to-Power program relies on the development of gas infrastructure in the afore-mentioned ports. These ports will bring in imported gas. However, potential shale gas deposits in the Karoo will threaten the need for any port infrastructure. Further risks to the gas economy stem from lack of policy, government apathy, and credit downgrades recently announced.

Nonetheless, the demand for natural gas is immense and will see returns, should the hurdles be addressed.

Key questions this study will answer include:
•     What is the state of the energy sector in South Africa?
•     What are the developments in the gas economy?
•     What is the potential for new markets in the natural gas economy?
•     Who are key participants in the gas value chain?
•     What are the views of the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors?

Table of Contents

South African Power Sector—Overview

South African Power Sector—Overview (continued)

South African LNG Landscape

South African LNG Landscape (continued)

South African LNG Landscape (continued)

Summary of Key Findings

CEO 360 Degree Perspective

Associated Research and Multimedia

South African Economy—Overview

Drivers and Restraints

Key Pipelines

Key Pipelines (continued)

Value Chain

Port Infrastructure

Port Infrastructure (continued)

Total Market Size

Market Size for Untapped Market

Value Chain

Application Areas

Market Infrastructure

Market Infrastructure (continued)

Key Factors Influencing Adoption

Stakeholder Opinion

Stakeholder Opinion (continued)

Substitute Products

Overview—NERSA and Sasol

South African LNG Market—Case Study

Natural Gas in the Residential Sector

Natural Gas in the Commercial Sector

Natural Gas in the Automotive Sector

Natural Gas in the Automotive Sector (continued)

Growth Opportunity 1—Nationwide Natural Gas Demand

Growth Opportunity 2—Coastal Port of Entry

Growth Opportunity 3—Commercial Sector Demand

Growth Opportunity 4—Industrial Sector

Growth Opportunity 5—Municipalities

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

The Frost & Sullivan Story

Value Proposition—Future of Your Company & Career

Global Perspective

Industry Convergence

360º Research Perspective

Implementation Excellence

Our Blue Ocean Strategy

Related Research
South Africa’s energy mix is dominated by coal, complemented by renewable and nuclear energy. The government of South Africa has set targets according to the IRP 2010, which forecasts an energy mix containing a greater contribution from renewable energy such as wind, solar, and hydro. This mix also contains a substantial contribution from gas. The Gas-to-Power programme in South Africa, parallel to the REIPPPP, has been met with delays in recent years. The programme, which is set to procure 3,126MW, is waiting for an instrumental policy document, the Gas Utilisation Master Plan (GUMP), which will determine the role gas plays in South Africa’s energy mix. The document outlines the country’s plans to integrate gas into the energy mix through public-private partnerships. While the GUMP may be delayed, the Gas-to-Power programme is slowly making gains. Two carefully selected ports have been earmarked to receive gas via a floating storage regasification unit (FSRU). This prevents the risk of stranded assets, should the program be abandoned. The 2 ports were strategically selected due to centrality and demand. Key to the viability and development of the port is an anchor client that would off-take the majority of landed gas. Ports to see this development will be Eastern Cape (Coega: 1000 MW) and KwaZulu-Natal (Richards Bay: 2000 MW), while the Western Cape will no longer see any LNG activity; the Western Cape will continue with LPG production. The excess gas that is imported would be available for use in industries such as automotive, as well as commercial buildings and residential homes. This potential demand for industrial use has been estimated at 37.8 million gigajoules. This value is for industries that make use of other fuels and would be willing to convert their operations to natural gas. Those industries that already make use of natural gas receive their gas Mozambique imports via Sasol, which has the monopoly. Sasol was named the primary gas supplier and distrib
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Tilden Hellyer
Industries Energy
WIP Number 9AAE-00-4B-00-00
Keyword 1 Natural Gas in South Africa
Keyword 2 South African Natural Gas
Keyword 3 Gas-to-Power programme in South Africa
Is Prebook No