Opportunity Analysis of the Water Value Chain

An Overview of Non-Revenue Water Costs and Opportunities in Kenya & Tanzania

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The African continent faces a growing battle for achieving adequate and safe access to power and potable water. Without addressing the need for power and water, Africa will not achieve its true growth potential as the “world’s last growth frontier”. Macro-economic forces such as climate change, growing populations, increasing urbanisation rates and deteriorating existing water infrastructure, are all encouraging local governments to shift towards Non-revenue water (NRW) reduction strategies. In collaboration, Frost & Sullivan and SIWI, conducted an “Analysis of the Investment Opportunities for Non-Revenue Water in Kenya and Tanzania”, with a more detailed assessment of two select municipalities per country. Using historic (2010) up to present day (2016) figures, a thorough understanding of the nature and size of the NRW problem, the size of the opportunity (both private and public sector), and the relative governance bottlenecks were identified.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Scope of the Analysis
Product Segment Scope
Supply Chain Scope
Analysed Geographic Scope
Strategic Implications of the Study
Suitability of the Project
Approach/Methodology of the Study
Problem Statement
Conclusions
2. Country Analysis: Kenya
Water Supply-Demand Analysis
3. Nairobi City County, Kenya
Municipality Overview
Water Supply-Demand Analysis
Water Accessibility/Penetration
Water Consumption per Capita
NRW
Component/Category-wise Split for NRW (in million kl)
The Value of Revenue Losses Due to Accounting and Billing Problems
Water Tariff Analysis and Trends
Economic Losses Associated with NRW
4. Mombasa County, Kenya
Water Supply-Demand Analysis
Water Accessibility/Penetration
Water Consumption per Capita
5. Country Analysis: Tanzania
Water Supply-Demand Analysis
6. Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania
Municipality Overview
Water Supply-Demand Analysis
Water Accessibility/Penetration
Water Consumption per Capita
NRW
Component/Category-wise Split for NRW (in Million kl)
Water Tariff Analysis and Trends
Economic Losses Associated with NRW
7. Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania
Municipality Overview
Water Supply-Demand Analysis
Water Accessibility/Penetration
Water Consumption per Capita
NRW
Component/Category-wise split for NRW
Water Tariff Analysis and Trends
Economic Losses Associated with NRW
8. NRW Governance Bottlenecks and Opportunities: Kenya and Tanzania
9. Kenya
Institutional Landscape Overview
Incentives to Reduce NRW
Water Security Incentives
Financial Sustainability Incentives
10. Cross-Country Analysis
Institutional Barriers and Opportunities
Tariffs
Experience with Private Sector Engagement (Water Supply Concessions and Lease Contracts)
Legal Systems
Vested Interests
Economies of Scale
Capacity for Infrastructure Planning and Procurement
Transparent Budgeting and Financial Reporting
Summary of NRW Governance Bottlenecks and Opportunities
11. Opportunity Analysis: Kenya and Tanzania
Opportunity Analysis
Overview of Opportunities in NRW: A Regional Perspective
Opportunity Analysis in the Water Value Chain, Kenya, 2013/14
Opportunity Analysis in the Water Value Chain, Tanzania, 2013/14
12. Legal Disclaimer
13. The Frost & Sullivan Story


List of Figures & Charts

1. Identified Quick Facts in Select Municipalities, Kenya and Tanzania, 2015
2. Supply versus Demand Analysis for Water, Kenya, 2015
3. Annual GDP and Population, Kenya, 2012-2018
4. Water Accessibility/Penetration-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
5. Water Consumption per Capita-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
6. Water Tariff Analysis and Trends-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2011/12-2013/14
7. Consumption Block-wise Tariff Structure—Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2013/14
8. Consumption Block-wise Tariff Structure-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2015/16-2017/18
9. Operation Cost for Water Production-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2011/12-2013/14
10. Water Accessibility/Penetration-Mombasa County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
11. Water Consumption per Capita-Mombasa County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
12. Supply versus Demand Analysis for Water, Tanzania, 2015
13. Annual GDP and Population, Tanzania, 2012-2018
14. Annual Water Production-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
15. Water Accessibility/Penetration-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
16. Water Consumption per Capita-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2014
17. Evolution of Water Tariffs (Average)-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
18. Municipal Authority’s Earnings through the Provision of Water Services-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
19. Annual Water Production-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
20. Water Accessibility/Penetration-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
21. Water Consumption per Capita—Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2014
22. Cost Components for Water Production-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
23. Rule of Law Index, Kenya and Tanzania, 2015


1. Population Progression-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
2. System Input Volume versus Water Demand-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
3. Revenue Water versus NRW-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
4. IWA Water Balance-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2013/14
5. Operation and Maintenance Cost Breakdown-Nairobi City County, Kenya, 2013/14
6. Population Progression-Mombasa County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
7. System Input Volume versus Water Demand-Mombasa County, Kenya, 2010/11-2013/14
8. Operation and Maintenance Cost Breakdown-Mombasa County, Kenya, 2013/14
9. Population Progression-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
10. System Input Volume versus Water Demand-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
11. Revenue Water versus NRW-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
12. IWA Water Balance-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2014
13. Cost Components for Water Production-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
14. Expenditure Breakdown-Dar es Salaam City Council, Tanzania, 2013/14
15. Population Progression-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
16. System Input Volume versus Water Demand-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
17. Revenue Water versus NRW-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
18. IWA Water Balance-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2013/14
19. Water Tariff Analysis and Trends-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
20. Municipal Authority’s Earnings through Provision of Water Services-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2011/12-2013/14
21. Expenditure Breakdown-Morogoro Municipal Council, Tanzania, 2013/14
22. Water Service and NRW Scenario in Municipalities, Kenya and Tanzania, 2013/14



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