Overview of South Africa's Updated Integrated Resource Plan Released for Public Comment

Scenario Planning for South Africa's Electricity Generation Capacity

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The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is South Africa’s master plan for new electricity generation capacity. The Integrated Resource Plan was developed by South Africa's Department of Energy (DoE) and the document sets out the projected demand for electricity in South Africa and then addresses how this demand is going to be met, in terms of electricity generation capacity, for the period to 2030. South Africa's DoE had the intention to update the Integrated Resource Plan biennially and, in 2014, an update to the original Integrated Resource Plan of 2010 was released for public comment. The final iteration of the document is expected to be published by the end of 2014, setting out the required power generation capacity additions and which technologies they will stem from.

Table of Contents

Executive SummaryExecutive SummaryExecutive Summary (continued)The IRP Update andPotential Generation ScenariosIRP 2010—The Original Iteration of the IRPChanged Conditions from 2010—Technology Options and Costs UpdateTechnology Cost Comparison—Overnight Capital CostsTechnology Cost Comparison—Overnight Capital Costs and Levelised CostsPotential Economic Growth PathsExpected Electricity DemandTest Cases and ScenariosScenario Planning—Potential Demand TrajectoriesScenario Planning—IRP 2010 vs. the Base CaseScenario Planning—The Base CaseScenario Planning—Constant Emissions vs. the Moderate Decline and Advanced Decline ScenariosScenario Planning—The Three Emissions ScenariosScenario Planning—Constant Emissions vs. the Carbon Tax Scenario Scenario Planning—The Carbon Tax ScenarioScenario Planning—Advanced Decline vs the Carbon Budget ScenarioScenario Planning—The Carbon Budget ScenarioScenario Planning—Embedded Generation (Rooftop PV) vs. the Moderate Decline Scenario Scenario Planning—The Embedded Generation (Rooftop PV) ScenarioScenario Planning—Big Gas vs. the Moderate Decline ScenarioScenario Planning—The Big Gas ScenarioScenario Planning—The Big Gas Scenario (continued)Scenario Planning—Nuclear Cost Sensitivity vs. Moderate Decline ScenarioScenario Planning—The High Nuclear Cost ScenarioScenario Planning—High Coal Cost vs. Moderate Decline ScenarioScenario Planning—The High Coal Cost ScenarioScenario Planning—Restrained Learning Rates vs. Moderate Decline ScenarioScenario Planning—The Restrained Learning Rates ScenarioScenario Planning—Solar Park vs. Moderate Decline ScenarioScenario Planning—The Solar Park ScenarioLegal DisclaimerThe Frost & Sullivan StoryThe Frost & Sullivan StoryValue Proposition: Future of Your Company & CareerGlobal PerspectiveIndustry Convergence360º Research PerspectiveImplementation ExcellenceOur Blue Ocean Strategy




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