RDE and WLTP Testing Requirements in Europe and Technology Roadmap for Compliance

Technology Roadmap and Powertrain System Penetration in the New Real-world Driving Test Environment

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Nearly all European Union (EU) citizens are exposed to levels of air pollution the World Health Organization considers harmful to health, resulting in an estimated 0.41 million premature deaths and €1 trillion in losses to the EU annually. Although the emissions limits for motor vehicles (Euro Standards) have been progressively tightened, the obsolete tests and optimization and circumvention strategies deployed by vehicle manufacturers have failed to deliver real-world improvements. To rectify this situation, the European Commission has mandated a new real-world driving (RDE) test to complement the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) dynamometer test. Additionally, the EU is planning to replace NEDC test with the newly established Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedures (WLTP).
The new realistic real-world driving emissions tests require driving with greater transient events and higher rate of speed and acceleration/deceleration. The new tests will favor technologies that provide relatively stable efficiency across their dynamic range, particularly during transient state. The Frost & Sullivan analysis provides insights on the technology roadmap and technology adoption and penetration outlook for different powertrain systems and technologies. The propulsion systems analyzed include gasoline, diesel, hybrid-electric, plug-in electric, and fuel-cell electric engines. Different types of transmissions are also analyzed, including manual, stepped automatic, CVT, and DCT.

Table of Contents

RDE and WLTP Testing Requirements in Europe and Technology Roadmap for ComplianceExecutive SummaryKey FindingsKey Findings (continued)Regulatory LandscapeUrban Air Quality and Risks in Europe, 2015–2020Regulations Roadmap for Light Vehicle Emissions in EuropeGlobal Light Vehicle Fleet CO2 Emission StandardsVehicle Type Approval and Certification Test Procedure RoadmapPotential Impact of Migrating from NEDC to WLTPTechnologies for Regulatory ComplianceAdvanced Technologies for Implementation through 2025Advanced Technologies for Implementation through 2025 (continued)Powertrain Technology Roadmap and PenetrationPowertrain Technology Roadmap—Gasoline ICEPowertrain Technology Roadmap—Diesel Exhaust After-treatmentExhaust After-treatment System Penetration ForecastThe CO2 Emission Control—Retrospection and Future OutlookAutomatic Transmission Market—Transmission Technology RoadmapGlobal Hot Spots—Transmission Per Cent Volume SnapshotInternal Combustion Engine Technology ForecastPowertrain OutlookGlobal Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment by Region SnapshotDiesel Sales Outlook for EuropePowertrain Electrification OutlookPowertrain Electrification OutlookElectrified Powertrain OutlookBattery Technology RoadmapLegal DisclaimerThe Frost & Sullivan StoryThe Frost & Sullivan StoryValue Proposition—Future of Your Company & CareerGlobal PerspectiveIndustry Convergence360º Research PerspectiveImplementation ExcellenceOur Blue Ocean Strategy




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