Russia Light Vehicle Market, Forecast to 2023

Sales Volume of Light Vehicles in Russia to Approach 2.4 Million Units in 2023

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The shifts in Russian economic and legislative environment changed the landscape of the automotive sector. As the market entered the new paradigm of post-recession economic recovery, the key participants in the segment (including OEMs and dealer chains) are preparing to tap into the new opportunities and develop a long-term strategy to hedge against the potential future risks that emerging markets are susceptible to. This study is a tool to be used in guidance for potential and current investors that are interested or already operate in the Russian automotive market. This study analyses the automotive market and industry in Russia, provides a strategic overview of the current macroeconomic situation in Russia,

Research Highlights

The study analyses historical sales data from 2013 and provides forecasts until 2023, outlining the key driving and restraining forces that will impact the market over the next 5 years. The study captures such drivers as post-crisis demand revival, legislative initiatives targeting the fleet renewals, shifts in auto financing, and others. On the other hand, examples of restraints discussed include high borrowing costs and a decline in the model range supplied in the market.

The study outlines the key opportunities with regard to the LV market in Russia (such as the overall need to replace the aged vehicle fleet, resilience of the premium segment, and strong demand for SUVs). This research service provides insights on the used vehicle market (including the forecast till 2023, breakdowns by age and make, and the value chain) that gained strength in the time of economic downturn, as customers experienced a decrease in purchasing power and difficulty in obtaining credit. The analysis of the key segments is included in this work and confirms the projected growth in the SUV segment due to customer preferences and increase in supply of SUV models in the Russian market. Examples of the best-selling models within the key segments are outlined as well (this includes brief information about the vehicles’ key features and the formula behind their success).

Other points discussed in the study include: industry and localization, auto components, dealers snapshot, future technology trends (market for electric cars and infrastructure) and fleet/leasing with an overview of key regions. The study is based on the Frost & Sullivan scenario.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Executive Summary—Key Takeaways
Overview of the Regulatory Structure in the Russian Market
Overall Russian Economy
Market Performance in Russia
Car Parc—Regional Distribution
Car Sales—Regional Distribution
Used Car Sales—Regional Distribution
Best Selling LV Models—Russia
Russian Light Vehicles Market—Key Technology Trends
Key Findings and Future Outlook
2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Research Background
Research Methodology
3. Drivers and Restraints—Light Vehicle Market
Market Drivers
Market Restraints
4. Russia Light Vehicles Market
Russia Outlook
Russia—Macroeconomic Overview
Coface Ratings
Russia—Population Trends
Russia—Macroeconomics of the Federal Districts
Russia’s Light Vehicles Parc
Geographical Distribution of LV Parc Versus Car Density
Parc Distribution by Age—Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg
Parc Breakdown by Make
Russian Light Vehicles Market—Key Influencing Trends
Regulatory Environment
Government Support Programs
LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis
LV Sales Distribution by Federal Districts
LV Sales Distribution by Key Sub-regions/Cities
Light Vehicle Sales Breakdown by Make
Economic Recession Versus Market Shifts
Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices
Progression of Sales—Chinese Brands
Market for Electric Cars in Russia
Russia LVs Sales Segmentation
Progression of Sales—Russian Versus Foreign Brands
Fleet and Leasing in Russia
Fleet Sales by Region
LV Market—Fleet Versus Retail
5. Dealer Environment Overview
Top 5 Key Trends
Key Dealer Chains in Russia
Dealer Benchmarking
6. Russian Used Car Market
Used Versus New Car Markets
Used Car Market—Value Chain in Russia
Used Light Vehicle Sales Breakdown by Make
Age Structure and Euro Standards of Used LV Market
7. Automotive Industry
Contribution of the Automotive Industry in Russia’s Economy
Automotive Industry—State Support Allocation
Overview of Local Production
8. Market for Auto Components
Manufacturing Localization in Russia
Market for Auto Components
Market for Auto Components by Key Categories
SWOT Analysis—Light Vehicles Market
9. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
TIES Project—5 Major Growth Opportunities
Strategic Imperatives for Conferencing Service Providers
10. Conclusions and Future Outlook
Key Conclusions
Legal Disclaimer
11. Appendix
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
Market Engineering Methodology
List of Exhibits


List of Figures & Charts

1. Light Vehicle Market: Key Characteristics by Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
2. Light Vehicle Market: Used Car Sales—Key Characteristics by Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
3. Light Vehicle Market: Key Findings and Future Outlook, Russia, 2017 and 2023
4. Light Vehicle Market: Key Market Drivers, Russia, 2018–2023
5. Light Vehicle Market: Key Market Restraints, Russia, 2018–2023
6. Key Metrics Projections, Russia, 2016, 2017, and 2023 (Optimistic Scenario)
7. Macroeconomics of the Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
8. Excise Tax Evolution (RUB per Horse Power), Russia, 2009, 2012, and 2015–2017
9. Gasoline and Diesel Prices, Russia, November 2017
10. Light Vehicle Market: Overview of the Key Dealers in Russia, 2016
11. Automotive Industry: State Support Allocation, Russia, 2015–2018
12. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Production Overview, Russia, 2017


1. Light Vehicle Market: Key Takeaways, Russia, 2017–2023
2. GDP Constant Prices, Russia, 1993–2017
3. LV Sales Volume Forecast, Russia, 2012–2023
4. Light Vehicle Market: Best Selling Models, Russia, 2017
5. Light Vehicle Market: Key Technology Trends, Russia, 2017–2023
6. GDP, Inflation, and Real Wage—Growth Rates, Russia, 2012–2017
7. Currency Fluctuation USD and Euro Versus RUB, 2012–2017
8. Working Age Population Dynamics, Russia, 2017 and 2023
9. Top 5 Largest Cities in Russia by Population, 2016
10. Rate of Urbanization, Russia, 2017
11. Inflow of Immigrants from CIS Countries, 2013–2015
12. Geography of Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
13. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Parc Dynamics, Russia, 2013–2017
14. Light Vehicle Market: Geographical Distribution of LV Parc Versus Car Density, Russia, 2017
15. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicles (PC+LCV) Parc Age Breakdown, Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg, 2017
16. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, Russia, 2017
17. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, Moscow, 2017
18. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, St. Petersburg, 2017
19. Light Vehicle Market: Key Influencing Trends, Russia, 2017–2023
20. Import Tariff Evolution, Russia, 2011–2020
21. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis, Russia, 2012–2023
22. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Distribution Trend by Federal Districts, Russia, 2010–2017
23. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Distribution by Key Sub-Regions/Cities, Russia, 2010–2017
24. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2013
25. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2016
26. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2017
27. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2023
28. Light Vehicle Market: Segment Dynamics—Premium Versus Mass, Russia, 2013–2023
29. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2016
30. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2023
31. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2017
32. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Chinese Brands—Frost & Sullivan Scenario, Russia, 2013, 2017, and 2023
33. Light Vehicle Market: Chinese Brands Market Share Dynamics, Russia, 2017and 2023
34. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Electric Car Registrations, Russia, 2012–2017
35. Light Vehicle Market: Electric Cars UIO Regional Distribution, Russia, 2017
36. Light Vehicle Market: Percent Unit Shipment by Key Segments, Russia, 2013, 2017 and 2023
37. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Russian Brands—Frost & Sullivan Scenario, 2013, 2017 and 2023
38. Light Vehicle Market: Russian Brands Market Share Dynamics, Russia, 2017 and 2023
39. Light Vehicle Market: Snapshot of the Fleet & Leasing, Russia, 2017
40. Light Vehicle Market: Fleet Sales in the Top Regions, Russia, 2012–2017
41. Light Vehicle Market: Fleet Versus Retail Sales Forecast, Russia, 2013–2023
42. Light Vehicle Market: Key Dealer Trends, Russia, 2017
43. Key Russian Dealers by Revenue, Russia, 2015 and 2016 (Trillion Rubles)
44. Key Russian Dealers by Number of Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2015 and 2016 (Thousand Units)
45. Light Vehicle Market: Used Versus New Vehicle Sales, Russia, 2013–2023
46. Light Vehicle Market: Used Car Value Chain Structure, Russia, 2017
47. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2013
48. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2016
49. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2017
50. Light Vehicle Market: Age Structure of Used Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2013
51. Light Vehicle Market: Age Structure of Used Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2017
52. Automotive Industry as Percent of GDP, Russia, 2013–2017
53. Light Vehicle Market: LV Production Forecast Conservative Scenario Analysis, Russia, 2013–2023
54. Light Vehicle Market: Share of Imported and Locally Produced Auto Components, Russia, 2014 and 2016
55. Light Vehicle Market: Auto Components by Key Categories Original Equipment Versus Aftermarket, Russia, 2016–2017
56. Light Vehicle Market: Market for Auto Components Breakdown, Russia, 2016–2017
57. Light Vehicle Market: SWOT Analysis, Russia, 2017
58. Light Vehicle Market: Key Conclusions, Russia, 2017–2023



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