Russia Light Vehicle Market, Forecast to 2023

Russia Light Vehicle Market, Forecast to 2023

Sales Volume of Light Vehicles in Russia to Approach 2.4 Million Units in 2023

RELEASE DATE
04-May-2018
REGION
Asia Pacific
Research Code: MC38-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU01672-AP-MR_21863
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Description

The shifts in Russian economic and legislative environment changed the landscape of the automotive sector. As the market entered the new paradigm of post-recession economic recovery, the key participants in the segment (including OEMs and dealer chains) are preparing to tap into the new opportunities and develop a long-term strategy to hedge against the potential future risks that emerging markets are susceptible to. This study is a tool to be used in guidance for potential and current investors that are interested or already operate in the Russian automotive market. This study analyses the automotive market and industry in Russia, provides a strategic overview of the current macroeconomic situation in Russia, and discusses the future projections. The analysis focuses on the investment climate, impact of the recent economic recession on the automotive market, governmental policies, and the regulatory environment related to the automotive industry (implementation of ERA-GLONASS and its implications; trends related to import tariff, excise tax, utilization fee, transport tax, mandatory car insurance, and so on).


Research Highlights

The study analyses historical sales data from 2013 and provides forecasts until 2023, outlining the key driving and restraining forces that will impact the market over the next 5 years. The study captures such drivers as post-crisis demand revival, legislative initiatives targeting the fleet renewals, shifts in auto financing, and others. On the other hand, examples of restraints discussed include high borrowing costs and a decline in the model range supplied in the market.

The study outlines the key opportunities with regard to the LV market in Russia (such as the overall need to replace the aged vehicle fleet, resilience of the premium segment, and strong demand for SUVs). This research service provides insights on the used vehicle market (including the forecast till 2023, breakdowns by age and make, and the value chain) that gained strength in the time of economic downturn, as customers experienced a decrease in purchasing power and difficulty in obtaining credit. The analysis of the key segments is included in this work and confirms the projected growth in the SUV segment due to customer preferences and increase in supply of SUV models in the Russian market. Examples of the best-selling models within the key segments are outlined as well (this includes brief information about the vehicles’ key features and the formula behind their success).

Other points discussed in the study include: industry and localization, auto components, dealers snapshot, future technology trends (market for electric cars and infrastructure) and fleet/leasing with an overview of key regions. The study is based on the Frost & Sullivan scenario.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary—Key Takeaways

Overview of the Regulatory Structure in the Russian Market

Overall Russian Economy

Market Performance in Russia

Car Parc—Regional Distribution

Car Sales—Regional Distribution

Used Car Sales—Regional Distribution

Best Selling LV Models—Russia

Russian Light Vehicles Market—Key Technology Trends

Key Findings and Future Outlook

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Research Background

Research Methodology

Market Drivers

Market Restraints

Russia Outlook

Russia—Macroeconomic Overview

Coface Ratings

Russia—Population Trends

Russia—Macroeconomics of the Federal Districts

Russia’s Light Vehicles Parc

Geographical Distribution of LV Parc Versus Car Density

Parc Distribution by Age—Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg

Parc Breakdown by Make

Russian Light Vehicles Market—Key Influencing Trends

Regulatory Environment

Government Support Programs

LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis

LV Sales Distribution by Federal Districts

LV Sales Distribution by Key Sub-regions/Cities

Light Vehicle Sales Breakdown by Make

Economic Recession Versus Market Shifts

Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices

Progression of Sales—Chinese Brands

Market for Electric Cars in Russia

Russia LVs Sales Segmentation

Progression of Sales—Russian Versus Foreign Brands

Fleet and Leasing in Russia

Fleet Sales by Region

LV Market—Fleet Versus Retail

Top 5 Key Trends

Key Dealer Chains in Russia

Dealer Benchmarking

Used Versus New Car Markets

Used Car Market—Value Chain in Russia

Used Light Vehicle Sales Breakdown by Make

Age Structure and Euro Standards of Used LV Market

Contribution of the Automotive Industry in Russia’s Economy

Automotive Industry—State Support Allocation

Overview of Local Production

Manufacturing Localization in Russia

Market for Auto Components

Market for Auto Components by Key Categories

SWOT Analysis—Light Vehicles Market

TIES Project—5 Major Growth Opportunities

Strategic Imperatives for Conferencing Service Providers

Key Conclusions

Legal Disclaimer

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Market Engineering Methodology

List of Exhibits

List of Figures
  • 1. Light Vehicle Market: Key Characteristics by Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
  • 2. Light Vehicle Market: Used Car Sales—Key Characteristics by Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
  • 3. Light Vehicle Market: Key Findings and Future Outlook, Russia, 2017 and 2023
  • 4. Light Vehicle Market: Key Market Drivers, Russia, 2018–2023
  • 5. Light Vehicle Market: Key Market Restraints, Russia, 2018–2023
  • 6. Key Metrics Projections, Russia, 2016, 2017, and 2023 (Optimistic Scenario)
  • 7. Macroeconomics of the Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
  • 8. Excise Tax Evolution (RUB per Horse Power), Russia, 2009, 2012, and 2015–2017
  • 9. Gasoline and Diesel Prices, Russia, November 2017
  • 10. Light Vehicle Market: Overview of the Key Dealers in Russia, 2016
  • 11. Automotive Industry: State Support Allocation, Russia, 2015–2018
  • 12. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Production Overview, Russia, 2017
List of Charts
  • 1. Light Vehicle Market: Key Takeaways, Russia, 2017–2023
  • 2. GDP Constant Prices, Russia, 1993–2017
  • 3. LV Sales Volume Forecast, Russia, 2012–2023
  • 4. Light Vehicle Market: Best Selling Models, Russia, 2017
  • 5. Light Vehicle Market: Key Technology Trends, Russia, 2017–2023
  • 6. GDP, Inflation, and Real Wage—Growth Rates, Russia, 2012–2017
  • 7. Currency Fluctuation USD and Euro Versus RUB, 2012–2017
  • 8. Working Age Population Dynamics, Russia, 2017 and 2023
  • 9. Top 5 Largest Cities in Russia by Population, 2016
  • 10. Rate of Urbanization, Russia, 2017
  • 11. Inflow of Immigrants from CIS Countries, 2013–2015
  • 12. Geography of Federal Districts, Russia, 2017
  • 13. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Parc Dynamics, Russia, 2013–2017
  • 14. Light Vehicle Market: Geographical Distribution of LV Parc Versus Car Density, Russia, 2017
  • 15. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicles (PC+LCV) Parc Age Breakdown, Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg, 2017
  • 16. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, Russia, 2017
  • 17. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, Moscow, 2017
  • 18. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, St. Petersburg, 2017
  • 19. Light Vehicle Market: Key Influencing Trends, Russia, 2017–2023
  • 20. Import Tariff Evolution, Russia, 2011–2020
  • 21. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis, Russia, 2012–2023
  • 22. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Distribution Trend by Federal Districts, Russia, 2010–2017
  • 23. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Distribution by Key Sub-Regions/Cities, Russia, 2010–2017
  • 24. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2013
  • 25. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2016
  • 26. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2017
  • 27. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2023
  • 28. Light Vehicle Market: Segment Dynamics—Premium Versus Mass, Russia, 2013–2023
  • 29. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2016
  • 30. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2023
  • 31. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2017
  • 32. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Chinese Brands—Frost & Sullivan Scenario, Russia, 2013, 2017, and 2023
  • 33. Light Vehicle Market: Chinese Brands Market Share Dynamics, Russia, 2017and 2023
  • 34. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Electric Car Registrations, Russia, 2012–2017
  • 35. Light Vehicle Market: Electric Cars UIO Regional Distribution, Russia, 2017
  • 36. Light Vehicle Market: Percent Unit Shipment by Key Segments, Russia, 2013, 2017 and 2023
  • 37. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Russian Brands—Frost & Sullivan Scenario, 2013, 2017 and 2023
  • 38. Light Vehicle Market: Russian Brands Market Share Dynamics, Russia, 2017 and 2023
  • 39. Light Vehicle Market: Snapshot of the Fleet & Leasing, Russia, 2017
  • 40. Light Vehicle Market: Fleet Sales in the Top Regions, Russia, 2012–2017
  • 41. Light Vehicle Market: Fleet Versus Retail Sales Forecast, Russia, 2013–2023
  • 42. Light Vehicle Market: Key Dealer Trends, Russia, 2017
  • 43. Key Russian Dealers by Revenue, Russia, 2015 and 2016 (Trillion Rubles)
  • 44. Key Russian Dealers by Number of Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2015 and 2016 (Thousand Units)
  • 45. Light Vehicle Market: Used Versus New Vehicle Sales, Russia, 2013–2023
  • 46. Light Vehicle Market: Used Car Value Chain Structure, Russia, 2017
  • 47. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2013
  • 48. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2016
  • 49. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2017
  • 50. Light Vehicle Market: Age Structure of Used Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2013
  • 51. Light Vehicle Market: Age Structure of Used Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2017
  • 52. Automotive Industry as Percent of GDP, Russia, 2013–2017
  • 53. Light Vehicle Market: LV Production Forecast Conservative Scenario Analysis, Russia, 2013–2023
  • 54. Light Vehicle Market: Share of Imported and Locally Produced Auto Components, Russia, 2014 and 2016
  • 55. Light Vehicle Market: Auto Components by Key Categories Original Equipment Versus Aftermarket, Russia, 2016–2017
  • 56. Light Vehicle Market: Market for Auto Components Breakdown, Russia, 2016–2017
  • 57. Light Vehicle Market: SWOT Analysis, Russia, 2017
  • 58. Light Vehicle Market: Key Conclusions, Russia, 2017–2023
Related Research
The shifts in Russian economic and legislative environment changed the landscape of the automotive sector. As the market entered the new paradigm of post-recession economic recovery, the key participants in the segment (including OEMs and dealer chains) are preparing to tap into the new opportunities and develop a long-term strategy to hedge against the potential future risks that emerging markets are susceptible to. This study is a tool to be used in guidance for potential and current investors that are interested or already operate in the Russian automotive market. This study analyses the automotive market and industry in Russia, provides a strategic overview of the current macroeconomic situation in Russia, and discusses the future projections. The analysis focuses on the investment climate, impact of the recent economic recession on the automotive market, governmental policies, and the regulatory environment related to the automotive industry (implementation of ERA-GLONASS and its implications; trends related to import tariff, excise tax, utilization fee, transport tax, mandatory car insurance, and so on).--BEGIN PROMO--

Research Highlights

The study analyses historical sales data from 2013 and provides forecasts until 2023, outlining the key driving and restraining forces that will impact the market over the next 5 years. The study captures such drivers as post-crisis demand revival, legislative initiatives targeting the fleet renewals, shifts in auto financing, and others. On the other hand, examples of restraints discussed include high borrowing costs and a decline in the model range supplied in the market.

The study outlines the key opportunities with regard to the LV market in Russia (such as the overall need to replace the aged vehicle fleet, resilience of the premium segment, and strong demand for SUVs). This research service provides insights on the used vehicle market (including the forecast till 2023, breakdowns by ag

More Information
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Table of Contents | Executive Summary~ || Executive Summary—Key Takeaways~ || Overview of the Regulatory Structure in the Russian Market~ || Overall Russian Economy~ || Market Performance in Russia~ || Car Parc—Regional Distribution~ || Car Sales—Regional Distribution~ || Used Car Sales—Regional Distribution~ || Best Selling LV Models—Russia~ || Russian Light Vehicles Market—Key Technology Trends~ || Key Findings and Future Outlook~ | Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology~ || Research Scope~ || Research Aims and Objectives~ || Research Background~ || Research Methodology~ | Drivers and Restraints—Light Vehicle Market~ || Market Drivers~ || Market Restraints~ | Russia Light Vehicles Market~ || Russia Outlook~ || Russia—Macroeconomic Overview~ || Coface Ratings~ || Russia—Population Trends~ || Russia—Macroeconomics of the Federal Districts~ || Russia’s Light Vehicles Parc~ || Geographical Distribution of LV Parc Versus Car Density~ || Parc Distribution by Age—Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg~ || Parc Breakdown by Make~ || Russian Light Vehicles Market—Key Influencing Trends~ || Regulatory Environment~ || Government Support Programs~ || LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis~ || LV Sales Distribution by Federal Districts~ || LV Sales Distribution by Key Sub-regions/Cities~ || Light Vehicle Sales Breakdown by Make~ || Economic Recession Versus Market Shifts~ || Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices~ || Progression of Sales—Chinese Brands~ || Market for Electric Cars in Russia~ || Russia LVs Sales Segmentation~ || Progression of Sales—Russian Versus Foreign Brands~ || Fleet and Leasing in Russia~ || Fleet Sales by Region~ || LV Market—Fleet Versus Retail~ | Dealer Environment Overview~ || Top 5 Key Trends~ || Key Dealer Chains in Russia~ || Dealer Benchmarking~ | Russian Used Car Market~ || Used Versus New Car Markets~ || Used Car Market—Value Chain in Russia~ || Used Light Vehicle Sales Breakdown by Make~ || Age Structure and Euro Standards of Used LV Market~ | Automotive Industry~ || Contribution of the Automotive Industry in Russia’s Economy~ || Automotive Industry—State Support Allocation~ || Overview of Local Production~ | Market for Auto Components~ || Manufacturing Localization in Russia~ || Market for Auto Components~ || Market for Auto Components by Key Categories~ || SWOT Analysis—Light Vehicles Market~ | Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action~ || TIES Project—5 Major Growth Opportunities~ || Strategic Imperatives for Conferencing Service Providers~ | Conclusions and Future Outlook~ || Key Conclusions~ || Legal Disclaimer~ | Appendix~ || Abbreviations and Acronyms Used~ || Market Engineering Methodology~ || List of Exhibits~
List of Charts and Figures 1. Light Vehicle Market: Key Characteristics by Federal Districts, Russia, 2017~ 2. Light Vehicle Market: Used Car Sales—Key Characteristics by Federal Districts, Russia, 2017~ 3. Light Vehicle Market: Key Findings and Future Outlook, Russia, 2017 and 2023~ 4. Light Vehicle Market: Key Market Drivers, Russia, 2018–2023~ 5. Light Vehicle Market: Key Market Restraints, Russia, 2018–2023~ 6. Key Metrics Projections, Russia, 2016, 2017, and 2023 (Optimistic Scenario)~ 7. Macroeconomics of the Federal Districts, Russia, 2017~ 8. Excise Tax Evolution (RUB per Horse Power), Russia, 2009, 2012, and 2015–2017~ 9. Gasoline and Diesel Prices, Russia, November 2017~ 10. Light Vehicle Market: Overview of the Key Dealers in Russia, 2016~ 11. Automotive Industry: State Support Allocation, Russia, 2015–2018~ 12. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Production Overview, Russia, 2017~| 1. Light Vehicle Market: Key Takeaways, Russia, 2017–2023~ 2. GDP Constant Prices, Russia, 1993–2017~ 3. LV Sales Volume Forecast, Russia, 2012–2023~ 4. Light Vehicle Market: Best Selling Models, Russia, 2017~ 5. Light Vehicle Market: Key Technology Trends, Russia, 2017–2023~ 6. GDP, Inflation, and Real Wage—Growth Rates, Russia, 2012–2017~ 7. Currency Fluctuation USD and Euro Versus RUB, 2012–2017~ 8. Working Age Population Dynamics, Russia, 2017 and 2023~ 9. Top 5 Largest Cities in Russia by Population, 2016~ 10. Rate of Urbanization, Russia, 2017~ 11. Inflow of Immigrants from CIS Countries, 2013–2015~ 12. Geography of Federal Districts, Russia, 2017~ 13. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicle Parc Dynamics, Russia, 2013–2017~ 14. Light Vehicle Market: Geographical Distribution of LV Parc Versus Car Density, Russia, 2017~ 15. Light Vehicle Market: Light Vehicles (PC+LCV) Parc Age Breakdown, Russia, Moscow and St. Petersburg, 2017~ 16. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, Russia, 2017~ 17. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, Moscow, 2017~ 18. Light Vehicle Market: LV Parc Breakdown by Make, St. Petersburg, 2017~ 19. Light Vehicle Market: Key Influencing Trends, Russia, 2017–2023~ 20. Import Tariff Evolution, Russia, 2011–2020~ 21. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis, Russia, 2012–2023~ 22. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Distribution Trend by Federal Districts, Russia, 2010–2017~ 23. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Distribution by Key Sub-Regions/Cities, Russia, 2010–2017~ 24. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2013~ 25. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2016~ 26. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2017~ 27. Light Vehicle Market: LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2023~ 28. Light Vehicle Market: Segment Dynamics—Premium Versus Mass, Russia, 2013–2023~ 29. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2016~ 30. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2023~ 31. Light Vehicle Market: Powertrain, Engine Size, and Fuel Prices, Russia, 2017~ 32. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Chinese Brands—Frost & Sullivan Scenario, Russia, 2013, 2017, and 2023~ 33. Light Vehicle Market: Chinese Brands Market Share Dynamics, Russia, 2017and 2023~ 34. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Electric Car Registrations, Russia, 2012–2017~ 35. Light Vehicle Market: Electric Cars UIO Regional Distribution, Russia, 2017~ 36. Light Vehicle Market: Percent Unit Shipment by Key Segments, Russia, 2013, 2017 and 2023~ 37. Light Vehicle Market: Volume Dynamics of Russian Brands—Frost & Sullivan Scenario, 2013, 2017 and 2023~ 38. Light Vehicle Market: Russian Brands Market Share Dynamics, Russia, 2017 and 2023~ 39. Light Vehicle Market: Snapshot of the Fleet & Leasing, Russia, 2017~ 40. Light Vehicle Market: Fleet Sales in the Top Regions, Russia, 2012–2017~ 41. Light Vehicle Market: Fleet Versus Retail Sales Forecast, Russia, 2013–2023~ 42. Light Vehicle Market: Key Dealer Trends, Russia, 2017~ 43. Key Russian Dealers by Revenue, Russia, 2015 and 2016 (Trillion Rubles)~ 44. Key Russian Dealers by Number of Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2015 and 2016 (Thousand Units)~ 45. Light Vehicle Market: Used Versus New Vehicle Sales, Russia, 2013–2023~ 46. Light Vehicle Market: Used Car Value Chain Structure, Russia, 2017~ 47. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2013~ 48. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2016~ 49. Light Vehicle Market: Used LV Sales Breakdown by Make (Top 10), Russia, 2017~ 50. Light Vehicle Market: Age Structure of Used Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2013~ 51. Light Vehicle Market: Age Structure of Used Vehicles Sold, Russia, 2017~ 52. Automotive Industry as Percent of GDP, Russia, 2013–2017~ 53. Light Vehicle Market: LV Production Forecast Conservative Scenario Analysis, Russia, 2013–2023~ 54. Light Vehicle Market: Share of Imported and Locally Produced Auto Components, Russia, 2014 and 2016~ 55. Light Vehicle Market: Auto Components by Key Categories Original Equipment Versus Aftermarket, Russia, 2016–2017~ 56. Light Vehicle Market: Market for Auto Components Breakdown, Russia, 2016–2017~ 57. Light Vehicle Market: SWOT Analysis, Russia, 2017~ 58. Light Vehicle Market: Key Conclusions, Russia, 2017–2023~
Author Anna Ozdelen
Industries Automotive
WIP Number MC38-01-00-00-00
Keyword 1 Light Vehicle
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9674-A6,9694,9800-A6,9801-A6,9883-A6,9AF6-A6,9B02-A6