South African Electricity Market—2016 Snapshot

South African Electricity Market—2016 Snapshot

Changing Economy and Expanding Renewable Energy Set to Alter Future of the Electricity Supply Industry

RELEASE DATE
08-May-2017
REGION
Africa
Research Code: MCCE-01-00-00-00
SKU: EG01751-AF-MR_19990

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Description

The electricity sector in South Africa has witnessed dynamic changes over the past few years. Sharp increases in electricity tariffs have been a prominent feature of the electricity supply industry in South Africa. Declining global commodity prices and increasing electricity prices have had a detrimental impact on the mining and manufacturing industry, which have experienced sluggish growth. The economy of South Africa is witnessing a gradual change with increased contribution from the services sector. As such, the demand for electricity has reduced. Decreasing costs of renewable energy technologies, regulatory reforms, market restructuring, coupled with the risks and delays associated with base-load coal and nuclear power will largely determine the future of the electricity sector in South Africa.

Table of Contents

Key Findings

Scope of Study

South Africa—Country Overview

Economic Outlook

GDP Contribution by Sector

Electricity Supply Industry—Market Structure

Sector Overview

Key Organisations

Current Installed Capacity—Technology and Ownership

Current Installed Capacity—Fuel Type and Owner

Evolution of Installed Capacity

Electricity Generation

Introduction to REIPPPP

REIPP Procurement Programme

REIPPPP—Procured and Operational Capacity

REIPPPP—Technology-wise Capacity Allocation per Bid Window

Current Installed Capacity Under REIPPP (Feb 2016)

Declining Prices of RE Power Projects per BW

Comparison of Power Generation Technologies Based on Unit Cost of Energy

Concerns Surrounding REIPPP and Future Build

Future Generation Mix as per IRP

Future Generation Plan for TDP 2016–2025

IRP 2016 in Numbers (New Build Options 2021–2050)

IRP 2016 Update—Frost & Sullivan Analysis

Existing Transmission Infrastructure

Transmission Development Plan—Major Planned Projects

Future Transmission Assets

Distribution Responsibilities (Eskom and Municipalities)

Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Trends

Electricity Sales per Customer Category

Electricity Sales in Southern Africa (Export)

IRP Projections 2010 and Update Base Case 2013

IRP Projections 2010 and 2013 Update (Anticipated Energy Consumption)

IRP Projections and Actual Situation

Understanding Various IRP Scenarios

CSIR Forecasts Using Sectoral Regression Model—Basis for IRP 2016 Base Case

Need for Annual IRP Updates

Eskom Tariff and Inflation

Evolution of Electricity Tariffs (Eskom Tariffs as per Consumer Category)

Evolution of Electricity Tariffs

Drivers

Restraints

Growth Opportunity 1—Power Generation

Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth

The 3 Big Predictions

Legal Disclaimer

Acronyms

List of Figures
  • 1. Macroeconomic Indicators, South Africa, FY2016
  • 2. Ministerial Determination for Development of Renewable Energy Projects, South Africa, 2011–2015
  • 3. Future Requirements for Transmission Equipment, South Africa, 2016–2025
  • 4. Electricity Market: Market Drivers, South Africa, 2017–2022
  • 5. Electricity Market: Market Restraints, South Africa, 2017–2022
List of Charts
  • 1. Quarter-on-Quarter Economic Growth, Real GDP Growth, South Africa, Q1 2012–Q3 2016
  • 2. GDP Contribution and Growth Rate, South Africa, Q3 2016
  • 3. Sector-wise Contribution to GDP, South Africa, 2014
  • 4. Nominal Capacity Available to Grid by Technology, South Africa, 2016
  • 5. Nominal Capacity Available to Grid by Ownership, South Africa, 2016
  • 6. Eskom Nominal Capacity, South Africa, 2016
  • 7. IPP Nominal Capacity, South Africa, 2016
  • 8. Installed Capacity and Peak Demand on Eskom Network, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
  • 9. Electricity Output by Fuel Type, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
  • 10. Status of REIPPPP, South Africa, 2016
  • 11. Operational Capacity Under REIPPPP, South Africa, Q3 2014–Q4 2016
  • 12. Technology-wise Capacity Allocation for Renewable Energy, South Africa, 2016
  • 13. Commercial Capacity Operational by Technology, South Africa, 2016
  • 14. Commercial Capacity Operation by Region, South Africa, 2016
  • 15. Renewable Energy Price Path, South Africa, 2011–2016
  • 16. Lifetime Cost per Energy Unit for Different Generation Technologies, South Africa, 2016
  • 17. Proposed Generation Capacity by 2030 as per IRP 2010, South Africa, 2016
  • 18. Proposed Generation Capacity by 2030 as per IRP 2013 (Updated), South Africa, 2016
  • 19. New Generation Capacity as per Eskom TDP, South Africa, 2016–2025
  • 20. Planned Power Station Capacity, South Africa, 2025
  • 21. Proposed New Build Power Generation as per IRP 2016 Draft, South Africa, 2021–2050
  • 22. Contribution by Installed Capacity, South Africa, 2020–2050
  • 23. Contribution by Generating Capacity, South Africa, 2020–2050
  • 24. Planned Transmission Infrastructure, South Africa, 2025
  • 25. Electricity Sales and Peak Demand, South Africa, 2006/07–2015/16
  • 26. Electricity Sales by Customer Category, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
  • 27. Electricity Export by Country, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
  • 28. Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2010 Scenario, South Africa, 2010–2030
  • 29. Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2013 Scenario, South Africa, 2013–2030
  • 30. Energy Consumption as per IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 Scenarios, South Africa, 2010–2030
  • 31. IRP Projections vs. Actual Energy Consumption, South Africa, 2010–2016
  • 32. Energy and Peak Demand Forecasts as per IRP 2016, South Africa, 2016–2030
  • 33. Average Eskom Tariffs, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16
Related Research
The electricity sector in South Africa has witnessed dynamic changes over the past few years. Sharp increases in electricity tariffs have been a prominent feature of the electricity supply industry in South Africa. Declining global commodity prices and increasing electricity prices have had a detrimental impact on the mining and manufacturing industry, which have experienced sluggish growth. The economy of South Africa is witnessing a gradual change with increased contribution from the services sector. As such, the demand for electricity has reduced. Decreasing costs of renewable energy technologies, regulatory reforms, market restructuring, coupled with the risks and delays associated with base-load coal and nuclear power will largely determine the future of the electricity sector in South Africa.
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Table of Contents | Executive Summary~ || Key Findings~ | Introduction~ || Scope of Study~ | South Africa—Introduction~ || South Africa—Country Overview~ || Economic Outlook~ || GDP Contribution by Sector~ | Regulatory Framework and Organisations~ || Electricity Supply Industry—Market Structure~ || Sector Overview~ || Key Organisations~ ||| Department of Energy (DOE)~ ||| National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA)~ ||| Eskom~ ||| IPP~ ||| Municipalities~ ||| SAPP~ | Electricity Generation~ || Current Installed Capacity—Technology and Ownership~ || Current Installed Capacity—Fuel Type and Owner~ || Evolution of Installed Capacity~ || Electricity Generation~ || Introduction to REIPPPP~ || REIPP Procurement Programme~ || REIPPPP—Procured and Operational Capacity~ || REIPPPP—Technology-wise Capacity Allocation per Bid Window~ || Current Installed Capacity Under REIPPP (Feb 2016)~ || Declining Prices of RE Power Projects per BW~ || Comparison of Power Generation Technologies Based on Unit Cost of Energy~ || Concerns Surrounding REIPPP and Future Build~ || Future Generation Mix as per IRP~ || Future Generation Plan for TDP 2016–2025~ || IRP 2016 in Numbers (New Build Options 2021–2050)~ || IRP 2016 Update—Frost & Sullivan Analysis~ | Electricity Transmission~ || Existing Transmission Infrastructure~ || Transmission Development Plan—Major Planned Projects~ || Future Transmission Assets~ | Electricity Distribution and Supply~ || Distribution Responsibilities (Eskom and Municipalities)~ || Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Trends~ || Electricity Sales per Customer Category~ || Electricity Sales in Southern Africa (Export)~ | Peak Demand and Energy Projections~ || IRP Projections 2010 and Update Base Case 2013~ || IRP Projections 2010 and 2013 Update (Anticipated Energy Consumption)~ || IRP Projections and Actual Situation~ || Understanding Various IRP Scenarios~ || CSIR Forecasts Using Sectoral Regression Model—Basis for IRP 2016 Base Case~ || Need for Annual IRP Updates~ | Electricity Tariffs~ || Eskom Tariff and Inflation~ || Evolution of Electricity Tariffs (Eskom Tariffs as per Consumer Category)~ || Evolution of Electricity Tariffs~ | Drivers and Restraints~ || Drivers~ ||| Renewable energy potential of South Africa~ ||| Decreasing costs of RE technologies~ ||| Opportunities for localisation and job creation~ || Restraints~ ||| Shrinking economy and a reduced demand for electricity~ ||| No level playing field for private participants~ ||| Initial progress problems with the industry~ | Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action~ || Growth Opportunity 1—Power Generation~ || Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth~ | The Last Word~ || The 3 Big Predictions~ || Legal Disclaimer~ | Appendix~ || Acronyms~ | The Frost & Sullivan Story~
List of Charts and Figures 1. Macroeconomic Indicators, South Africa, FY2016~ 2. Ministerial Determination for Development of Renewable Energy Projects, South Africa, 2011–2015~ 3. Future Requirements for Transmission Equipment, South Africa, 2016–2025~ 4. Electricity Market: Market Drivers, South Africa, 2017–2022~ 5. Electricity Market: Market Restraints, South Africa, 2017–2022~| 1. Quarter-on-Quarter Economic Growth, Real GDP Growth, South Africa, Q1 2012–Q3 2016~ 2. GDP Contribution and Growth Rate, South Africa, Q3 2016~ 3. Sector-wise Contribution to GDP, South Africa, 2014~ 4. Nominal Capacity Available to Grid by Technology, South Africa, 2016~ 5. Nominal Capacity Available to Grid by Ownership, South Africa, 2016~ 6. Eskom Nominal Capacity, South Africa, 2016~ 7. IPP Nominal Capacity, South Africa, 2016~ 8. Installed Capacity and Peak Demand on Eskom Network, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ 9. Electricity Output by Fuel Type, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ 10. Status of REIPPPP, South Africa, 2016~ 11. Operational Capacity Under REIPPPP, South Africa, Q3 2014–Q4 2016~ 12. Technology-wise Capacity Allocation for Renewable Energy, South Africa, 2016~ 13. Commercial Capacity Operational by Technology, South Africa, 2016~ 14. Commercial Capacity Operation by Region, South Africa, 2016~ 15. Renewable Energy Price Path, South Africa, 2011–2016~ 16. Lifetime Cost per Energy Unit for Different Generation Technologies, South Africa, 2016~ 17. Proposed Generation Capacity by 2030 as per IRP 2010, South Africa, 2016~ 18. Proposed Generation Capacity by 2030 as per IRP 2013 (Updated), South Africa, 2016~ 19. New Generation Capacity as per Eskom TDP, South Africa, 2016–2025~ 20. Planned Power Station Capacity, South Africa, 2025~ 21. Proposed New Build Power Generation as per IRP 2016 Draft, South Africa, 2021–2050~ 22. Contribution by Installed Capacity, South Africa, 2020–2050~ 23. Contribution by Generating Capacity, South Africa, 2020–2050~ 24. Planned Transmission Infrastructure, South Africa, 2025~ 25. Electricity Sales and Peak Demand, South Africa, 2006/07–2015/16~ 26. Electricity Sales by Customer Category, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ 27. Electricity Export by Country, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~ 28. Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2010 Scenario, South Africa, 2010–2030~ 29. Peak Demand Projections as per IRP 2013 Scenario, South Africa, 2013–2030~ 30. Energy Consumption as per IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 Scenarios, South Africa, 2010–2030~ 31. IRP Projections vs. Actual Energy Consumption, South Africa, 2010–2016~ 32. Energy and Peak Demand Forecasts as per IRP 2016, South Africa, 2016–2030~ 33. Average Eskom Tariffs, South Africa, 2011/12–2015/16~
Author Neeraj Sanjay Mense
Industries Energy
WIP Number MCCE-01-00-00-00
Keyword 1 South African Electricity
Keyword 2 Electricity Supply Industry in SA
Keyword 3 electricity sector in South Africa
Is Prebook No