5G Open and Virtual RAN Market, Global, 2024–2028

The fifth generation of wireless technology (5G) has arrived and is being rolled out globally. 5G is possible because of the contributions of previous generations of wireless communications and a number of disruptive technologies, each of which must be understood at least at a high level to paint a full picture of the industry. This study centers on open and virtual radio access network (RAN); while this subject impacts all generations of cellular technologies, the primary focus will remain on 5G. A communication service provider (CSP) network requires many RANs to cover a city, state, or region compared to a relatively few core networks. Prior to the open and virtual RAN movement, 5 global suppliers (Ericsson, Huawei, Nokia, Samsung, and ZTE) accounted for more than 90% of the RAN market. Frost & Sullivan estimates that CSPs in 2021 invested nearly $60 billion in their mobile and wireless network infrastructure—on public networks of all generations. The majority of that spend was on the RAN, with a smaller spend on the transport and core networks. Historically, the network infrastructure market has grown at a low, single-digit rate. With the transition to 5G, the growth rate has been higher but is beginning to return to historical norms. Competition leads to innovation and lower prices, which is a primary driver for key members of the CSP community in the O-RAN Alliance. Lowering costs is important to CSPs because RAN expenses account for the largest percentage of their network cost. However, Frost & Sullivan thinks that additional innovation resulting from a higher level of competition will return higher dividends in the long term. Innovations have already come out of the O-RAN Alliance in their proposed architectural changes to the RAN that build upon 3GPP standards.

Author: Troy Morley