Coatings for On-Road Commercial Vehicles, Global, 2024–2031

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the On-Road CVs Coatings

Geopolitical Chaos

• Why
  • In early 2025, the US imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, China, and other countries, creating cost uncertainties for coating manufacturers as well as CV OEMs and fleet operators.
  • These tariffs will likely contribute to a decline in new vehicle orders and cautious fleet expansion, as companies face higher input costs and operational risks. Furthermore, Canada, Mexico, and China are major suppliers of raw materials such as resins, solvents, and coating additives. The tariffs are likely to disrupt supply chains, potentially causing further project delays.
• Frost Perspective
  • OEMs are looking at multiple business models, such as feature-on-demand and pay-as-you-use services based on subscription models.
  • This is giving consumers the ability to use features that would have been unavailable traditionally, and OEMs are looking to capitalize on this trend.

Transformative Megatrends

• Why
  • Sustainability, autonomous driving, and vehicle electrification are key megatrends influencing the CV market.
  • Vehicle designs are evolving to integrate advanced features such as sensors, cameras, and mirrors aimed at improving driver assistance.
• Frost Perspective
  • Although the CV sector is slower to adopt these technologies compared to passenger cars, the share of such vehicles will likely grow significantly during the forecast period.
  • OEMs and refining coating suppliers must align their products and services with these evolving trends to remain viable and relevant.

Competitive Intensity

• Why
  • The increasing adoption of vehicle wraps is reshaping branding strategies in commercial fleets and redefining the competitive dynamics of the coatings market.
  • Wraps offer fleet operators a fast, flexible, and environmentally friendly alternative to traditional repainting—especially in segments like urban logistics, leasing, and shared mobility where frequent branding updates are required.
  • Rising pressure to meet sustainability and ESG goals is driving the adoption of wraps, as they emit no VOCs.
• Frost Perspective
  • The rise of wraps has attracted non-coating players such as vinyl manufacturers and digital printing companies into the ecosystem, diverting part of the market away from traditional refinish coatings.
  • While OEM coatings remain essential for structural durability and performance, wraps are increasingly capturing aftermarket demand, altering repaint economics, and reducing the volume of conventional refinishing jobs.

Key Competitors

Competitive Environment

Growth Drivers

• Growth in the production of CVs
• Vehicles getting slightly larger over time
• Increased use and development of higher-priced premium coating systems driving revenue growth

Growth Restraints

• Use of primer-less coatings and replacement of basecoat/clearcoat systems with monocoats contributing to the decline in coatings volume
• Rise in use of advanced coatings that require lower volumes of product usage
• Changing trends in substrates used in vehicles and the need for coating those surfaces
• Growth in pre-owned vehicles