Eastern Europe and CIS Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends, H2 2018

Description

The growth outlook for the economies in the Eastern Europe and The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) remains moderate. While the economic growth in the Eastern European countries such as The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland is gaining momentum, Turkey is expected to plunge into a near-zero growth situation by the end of Q4 2018. Czech economy is expected to stay upbeat in H2 2018 driven by healthy labor market situation underpinning strong growth in domestic consumption. GDP growth in Q4 2018 is expected to average at 3.5% with unemployment falling to a level lowest in more than a decade. With the global economy going through political and economic uncertainty, the external sector is likely to remain vulnerable to soft global demand. The Hungarian economy also appears to grow on a strong footing with GDP growth crossing the 5.0% mark in Q3 2018. Upbeat business confidence, strong growths in the domestic consumption as well as continued inflow of EU structural funds have benefitted the solid growth of the economy. In Russia, following negative GDP growth in 2015 and 2016 owing to lower oil prices and Western sanctions which is still in place, growth came back on track in 2017. Slip in growth expected in 2019 amidst expected oil production cuts, weaker oil prices, and a planned value added tax (VAT) hike. VAT rate hike, from 18% to 20% in January 2019 might cause inflationary pressures. With mounting up of external debt and high current account deficit, Turkey will face stagflationary pressure in 2019. Consumer price inflation rate in Turkey might average 15.2% in 2019, with Turkish lira collapsing in value. This is likely to cause business confidence to mute with rapid job losses and fall in foreign investment inflows in Turkey. Kazakh economy in 2019 is also expected to stay upbeat supported by strong export growth and solid labor market conditions.
Country Coverage – Eastern Europe and CIS
·     The Czech Republic
·     Hungary
·     Kazakhstan
·     Poland
·     Russia
·     Turkey
·     Ukraine

Sector Coverage:
Economic Indicators, Demographics, Energy, Manufacturing, Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Plastics, Mining, Electricity, Construction, Agriculture, Healthcare, Information, and Communication Technologies.

Indicator coverage:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components, GDP Growth, Export & Import, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, Business Confidence, Population & Demographics, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Value Add by Industry, Trade by Industry, IIP by Industry, Production of Important Commodities, Oil Production & Consumption, Oil Export & Import, Renewable Energy, Emissions, Coal Production & Consumption, Healthcare Spending, Internet and Mobile Subscription.
Regional GDP Growth calculation

Year, Quarter, and Month Coverage
• Yearly Data: 2015–2022
• Quarterly Data: Q1 2015–Q3 2020
• Monthly Data: January 2015–December 2018