Global Cellular IoT and Low-Power Wide-Area Network (LPWAN) Market, Forecast to 2030

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Cellular IoT and LPWAN Industry

Disruptive Technologies

• Why: GenAI tools are being increasingly integrated into IoT infrastructures. Private MEC, a private mobile network deployment with edge computing capabilities custom-built for enterprises, has expanded globally over the past 2 years.
• Frost Perspective: Frost & Sullivan's 2024 Global IT Decision Maker (ITDM) Survey revealed that 44% of organizations utilize AI in IoT hardware and processors. Frost & Sullivan expects a CAGR of 64.9% for private MEC in telecommunications through 2029, reaching a global annual revenue of $6.82 billion.

Innovative Business Models

• Why: eSIM development enables innovative IoT business models by supporting remote SIM provisioning (RSP), multi-profile capabilities, and advanced orchestration. These features allow new companies to scale globally by remotely managing connectivity, switching between operators, and automating the device life cycle.
• Frost Perspective: According to the new GSM Association (GSMA) SGP.32 specification, MNOs will no longer manage profile monitoring in IoT devices. Instead, eSIM providers or device manufacturers will offer this service. MNOs innovating in eSIM services focus on the consumer segment. eSIM offerings for IoT will grow in the next 2–5 years.

Industry Convergence

• Why: Massive cellular IoT (NB-IoT and LTE-M) and massive non-licensed LPWAN (LoRaWAN) integration with satellites enables wider area coverage in remote locations. The proliferation of LEO* satellites enables direct-to-device connectivity, reducing costs on gateways and infrastructure.
• Frost Perspective: The convergence of different connectivity standards is giving rise to the network-of-networks trend, allowing customers to leverage various terrestrial, satellite, and high-altitude platform striving (HAPS) platforms. Ecosystem collaboration will drive new use cases across agriculture, logistics, and environmental monitoring.

Scope of Analysis

Growth Drivers

• China’s massive growth in IoT connections in 2024 and 2025 is pushing the traditional cellular IoT ecosystem forward.
• Enterprises making significant investments in IoT, particularly in the automotive, transportation, and logistics sectors, are driving the adoption of 4G and 5G connectivity.
• An eSIM makes it easier to activate and manage IoT devices without a physical SIM card and its logistics. The new SGP.32 GSMA standard will accelerate cellular IoT adoption.
• The rise of 5G private networks with MEC in manufacturing enables real-time automation and machine communication, supporting applications such as autonomous mobile robots (AMRs), augmented reality (AR) for quality inspections and predictive maintenance, and digital twins.
• Telcos and vehicle manufacturers are launching solutions for the automotive and transportation industry with 4G/5G. Cellular IoT ensures connectivity when Wi-Fi and Ethernet are unavailable, enabling applications such as EV charging, infotainment, navigation, telematics, and vehicle diagnosis.

Growth Restraints

• The commoditization of traditional cellular IoT connectivity service pricing is eroding ARPU. The commoditization of connectivity services puts downward pressure on average revenue per unit, even as adoption rises.
• The global growth slowdown from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 is expected under a baseline tariff scenario. Economic deceleration in advanced markets, including the United States and China, coupled with retaliatory tariffs, primarily targeting chipsets and semiconductors, is affecting supply chains.
• 5G Standalone (SA) and network slicing require significant infrastructure costs, and businesses lack the expertise to deploy and manage networks internally.
• The development of 5G for IoT is still slow across the Americas, Europe, and APAC. Markets are currently focusing on integrating 5G into fixed wireless access and smartphones.
• Underdeveloped vertical ecosystems are limiting the scalability of cellular IoT as industries lack standardized solutions and integration partners.