Global Oil Markets Outlook, 2017

Global Oil Markets Outlook, 2017

Gasoline demand is likely to be driven by emerging markets while developed economies move toward fuel efficient / electric vehicles

RELEASE DATE
21-Sep-2017
REGION
South Asia, Middle East & North Africa
Research Code: 9AB4-00-17-00-00
SKU: EG01819-GL-MR_20772

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Description

With the current drop in crude oil prices, major suppliers of crude oil are looking to diversify their oil and gas portfolios to include refinery products and petrochemicals. Some older refineries in Europe have also temporarily become profitable to operate. Further, the success of Shale Gas and Oil has created self-sufficiency in the US and is pushing it toward increased exports. All these have resulted in major changes in the trade flow of many refinery products across the globe. Demand, driven by Asian countries, and implementation of regulations related to sulphur and other pollutants, especially in the developed economies, is further expected to change the global oil and gas landscape. This study critically examines all the factors that are expected to shape the global market for oil products till 2030 and forecasts the changes the market is expected to witness.

Table of Contents

Scope & Limitations

Middle Class and wage-earning population in emerging markets is expected to create energy demand in the future

Crude oil is expected to play a key role in global economic growth, especially contributing to the transport sector

To cater to rising demand, Asia is adding refining capacity, importing crude oil from the Middle East and North America

Petroleum products are expected to grow in demand except for fuel oil, which is under regulatory scrutiny

Gasoline demand growth is to be driven by emerging markets while developed economies move toward fuel efficient / electric vehicles

As energy efficient vehicles become the norm in the US and the EU, these regions are expected to have gasoline surpluses

N. America and Middle East will dominate gasoline exports targeting Latin America and Asia, respectively

Diesel demand growth is expected to be driven by Asia, especially India & China, and is linked to growth in their industrial sectors

Shale boom contributes to North America’s production increase while Europe faces capacity constraints

North America and Middle East are likely to dominate diesel exports with Europe being the key target market

Penetration of low cost air carriers in emerging markets and growth in the Chinese airlines market likely to power jet fuel demand

Stagnating demand for jet fuel in North America is expected to bring excess capacity which may be taken up by growing markets

Middle East and China, with ambitious plans for their aviation sectors, set to be the target for Other Asian countries and Europe

Environmental and regulatory concerns will likely lead to fuel oil demand drop in all markets except Africa and Middle East

Though there is an expected demand drop for fuel oil, Asia is expected to face a large deficit

Even with an overall demand decline, fuel oil trade is expected to be robust as demand exists in pockets across regions

Asia is expected to be a major consumer of LPG driven by demand for residential fuel and chemical feedstock

Middle East will continue to be a major producer of LPG with an estimated 50% as surplus

Exporters are likely to see increased competition due to excess supply and lack of alternatives

Naphtha demand is expected to rise but renaissance of gas-based petrochemical production causes challenges

Middle East emerges as a key market for naphtha, in the long term, driven by increasing demand for petrochemical products

Shale gas boom is expected to change the dynamics of naphtha trade pitting it against LPG

Emerging markets are expected to power growth of oil products…

… while US shale influences major changes in global trade dynamics

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Related Research
With the current drop in crude oil prices, major suppliers of crude oil are looking to diversify their oil and gas portfolios to include refinery products and petrochemicals. Some older refineries in Europe have also temporarily become profitable to operate. Further, the success of Shale Gas and Oil has created self-sufficiency in the US and is pushing it toward increased exports. All these have resulted in major changes in the trade flow of many refinery products across the globe. Demand, driven by Asian countries, and implementation of regulations related to sulphur and other pollutants, especially in the developed economies, is further expected to change the global oil and gas landscape. This study critically examines all the factors that are expected to shape the global market for oil products till 2030 and forecasts the changes the market is expected to witness.
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Author David Elango Anil Kumar
Industries Energy
WIP Number 9AB4-00-17-00-00
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