Middle East and Africa (MEA) Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends, H1 2018

Economic recovery in Saudi Arabia will continue to be supported by pick up in oil production to compensative for output decline in Iran. While Aramco privatization is delayed, Saudi aims to generate $11 billion non-oil revenue through privatization program by 2020. The killing of journalist Khashoggi heightened capital flight in October 2018, as there was a threat of sanctions on Saudi. This might dent investment outlook in non-oil sectors in the short term.
Qatar is on a resilient economic growth path despite economic blockade, with the construction sector remaining the key growth driver. Qatar’s first special economic zone in Umm Al Houl is expected to be opened up for private investment by Q1 2019. Qatar’s withdrawal from OPEC starting January 2019 might have a little impact on oil prices; however it could lead to political uncertainty within OPEC. Qatar is set to introduce VAT from January 1, 2019, to expand its tax base. The country is expected to record large fiscal surplus (6.2%) in 2019. US Sanctions will drag Iran into recession with record depreciation and high inflation in 2018 and 2019, as per the Solar Hijri calendar. Oil production fell to 3.2 million b/d in October 2018 and is likely to fall to 2.8 million in 2019. Oil export will also fall to 1.2 million b/d in 2019 from 2.5 million b/d in 2017. Non-oil sector predominantly the service sector will continue to expand. Both Egypt and Israel recorded accelerated growth thanks to robust domestic demand and government spending. They are expected to perform well in 2019 too, owing to downslide in oil prices and impending oil production cut. On the other hand in South Africa fiscal stimulus is expected to alter the recessionary effect and lift the economy in 2019.

Country Coverage – Middle East and Africa:
•     Saudi Arabia
•     United Arab Emirates
•     Egypt
•     Algeria
•     Nigeria
•     Qatar
•     Israel
•     Iran
•     South Africa

Sector Coverage:
Economic Indicators, Demographics, Energy, Manufacturing, Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Plastics, Mining, Electricity, Construction, Agriculture, Healthcare, Information and Communication Technologies.

Indicator Coverage:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components, GDP Growth, Export & Import, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, Business Confidence, Population & Demographics, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Value Add by Industry, Trade by Industry, IIP by Industry, Production of Important Commodities, Oil Production & Consumption, Oil Export & Import, Renewable Energy, Emissions, Coal Production & Consumption, Healthcare Spending, Internet and Mobile Subscription.
Regional GDP Growth calculation

Year, Quarter, and Month Coverage
• Yearly Data: 2015–2022
• Quarterly Data: Q1 2015–Q2 2020
• Monthly Data: January 2015–June 2018