Light Commercial Vehicle Market, Volume Forecast and Growth Opportunities, Europe, 2024 - 2032

Light Commercial Vehicle Market, Volume Forecast and Growth Opportunities, Europe, 2024 - 2032

Strong Decarbonization Measures are Driving Transformational Growth in Electric Vehicles toward Penetration of 60% by 2032

RELEASE DATE
17-Sep-2024
REGION
Global
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Market Research
Research Code: PFM1-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU_2024_1021
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Light Commercial Vehicle Market, Volume Forecast and Growth Opportunities, Europe, 2024 - 2032
Published on: 17-Sep-2024 | SKU: AU_2024_1021

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Frost & Sullivan expects the overall light commercial vehicle (LCV) market size to reach 2.4 million units by 2032. The European LCV market is on track to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2023 and 2032. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration will increase to reach 60.0% during this period, up from 6.9% in 2023.

The overall size of the LCV market in Europe in 2023 was 1.9 million units. Vans held the largest volume at 1.7 million units and contributed 92.4% of the total LCV volumes. The less than 3.5t segment held 99.1% of the overall volume, and the greater than 3.5t segment made up the remaining share.

One out of every 3 LCVs sold in Europe belongs to the Stellantis Group. Next comes Ford at a distant second, with a market share of 18.0%, followed closely by Renault-Nissan Group at 15.0%. German manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz with a combined share of 21.5% complete the top five players.

Diesel is the primary powertrain technology for LCVs, powering 86.0% of them. Diesel powers 86.1% of the vehicles in the less than 3.5t segment, and even less in the higher-weight class of the greater than 3.5t segment, with a 75.0% share, due to the significant presence of EVs.

Pickups in Europe are almost entirely used for personal applications. Meanwhile, 32.9% of vans are used for parcel and delivery applications. Utilities, mobile services, and construction applications make up 37.0% of van sales, with personal and passenger applications holding a combined share of 30.2%.

The study period for this European LCV research service is 2023 to 2032.

Author: Marshall Martin

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the size of the Europe LCV market in 2023? What are the market's future growth prospects?
  • Who are the key OEMs, and what are the major applications in the LCV segment?
  • What are the prospects for electrification in the market, and who are the key players driving it?
  • How does the total cost of ownership for eLCVs compare with that of ICE LCV?
  • What is the volume of the eLCV market expected to be in the future? What are the drivers for the growth of this market? 

 

Research Highlights

LCV Market: Volume and xEV Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032

Europe light commercial vehicle unit forecast

 

Research Scope

Scope
Geographic CoverageEurope
Study Period2023-2032
Base Year2023
Forecast Period2024-2032
Market SegmentsPickups, Vans, Cab-Over-Engine (COE) Trucks

 

LCV Market Segmentation

GVWR < 6 tons LCV: 

  • Pickups: Compact, Mid-size, Full-size, and Heavy-Duty (HD)
  • Vans: Small, Medium, and Large
  • Cab-over-engine (COE) Trucks: Mini, Small, and Light

Powertrain Types:

  • Gasoline
  • Diesel
  • Natural Gas
  • Electric Vehicle (represented as both EV and xEV in this study)

 

Top 3 Strategic Imperatives impacting the European LCV Market

Industry Convergence

Why:

  • Collaborations among automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), Tier I suppliers, and tech companies will likely address common challenges in emissions, safety, and connectivity.
  • Synergies will allow stakeholders to develop innovative solutions faster, cut costs, and mitigate risks.

Frost Perspective:

  • Partnerships between automotive and tech companies are already happening and will become more common.
  • The confluence of ideas from diverse area and expertise is expected to transform the next decade.

Internal Challenges

Why:

  • The trucking industry, dominated by legacy companies with old ideas and resistance to change, has attracted interest from tech-savvy start-ups in recent years.
  • These young companies are rewriting the rules of the game through high-level technology and artificial intelligence (AI).

Frost Perspective:

  • The following 2 to 5 years will see many new participants entering the market, especially in electrification.
  • Numerous technology companies want a piece of the trucking pie and are working on connectivity, freight brokerage, and autonomous driving.

Transformative Megatrends

Why:

  • Frost & Sullivan’s Mobility Revolution Megatrend considers how autonomous mobility, green transportation, and new mobility models will shape the future.
  • In the trucking industry, the keywords are connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE).
  • Each will contribute to a cleaner, safer, and more sustainable environment.

Frost Perspective:

  • Connected and shared technologies in the form of telematics and digital freight brokerage are in the nascent stage but already in deployment.
  • Frost & Sullivan expects a proliferation of electric trucks in this decade.
  • Depending on the level, autonomous driving is still 5 to 10 years away.

 

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) Industry

Key Findings

LCV Sales Volume and Application Share

LCV Powertrain Split

Volume Forecast and EV Penetration

Research Scope

LCV Market Segmentation

Europe—Regional Outlook

LCV Volumes

LCV Powertrain Split

LCV OEM Market Share

Major LCV Applications

Key LCV Applications Share

Country Insight—Germany

Country Insight—France

Country Insight—Italy

Country Insight—Spain

Country Insight—United Kingdom

Electrification Use Cases—Pickups

Electrification Use Cases—Vans

eLCV Technology Roadmap

Drivetrain Architecture Mapping—OEMs

eLCV Models by Vehicle Size

eLCV Models by Vehicle Size (continued)

Electric Platforms of Key OEMs

Key Metrics for Electric Pickups

Mileage Range of Electric Vans

Price Range of Electric Vans

Volume Forecast and EV Penetration

Small Electric Vans—Battery Capacity and Motor Power

Medium Electric Vans—Battery Capacity and Motor Power

Large Electric Vans—Battery Capacity and Motor Power

Key eLCV Launches

EV Incentives—Select Countries

EV Incentives—Select Countries (continued)

Volume Forecast by Segment

Powertrain Share Forecast

Electric Powertrain Share Forecast

Pickup Volume Forecast and EV Penetration

Van Volume Forecast and EV Penetration

COE Truck Volume Forecast and EV Penetration

LCV Future Outlook by Body Style

TCO Analysis—Key Assumptions

Large Vans—TCO Share and per Mile Cost

Large Vans—Payback Period

Large Vans—TCO Components

Small Vans—TCO Share and per Mile Cost

Small Vans—Payback Period

Small Vans—TCO Components

Growth Opportunity 1—Challenging Macro-economic Conditions

Growth Opportunity 1—Challenging Macro-economic Conditions (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2—Pickups to Compensate for Decline in Cab-over-Engine (COE) Trucks

Growth Opportunity 2—Pickups to Compensate for Decline in Cab-over-Engine (COE) Trucks (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3—Growing Electric Vehicle (EV) Ecosystem

Growth Opportunity 3—Growing Electric Vehicle (EV) Ecosystem (continued)

Best Practices Recognition

Frost Radar

Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities

Next Steps

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

List of Figures
  • LCV Market: Key Findings, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: Sales Volume and Application Share, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Powertrain Split, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Volume and xEV Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: Regional Outlook, Europe, 2023–2033
  • LCV Market: LCV Volumes, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: LCV Powertrain Split, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: OEM Share, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Major LCV Applications, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Key LCV Applications Share, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Country Insight, Germany, 2023
  • Total Sales by Body Style, Germany, 2023
  • Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, Germany, 2023
  • Total Sales by Body Style, France, 2023
  • LCV Market: Country Insight, France, 2023
  • Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, France, 2023
  • LCV Market: Country Insight, Italy, 2023
  • Total Sales by Body Style, Italy, 2023
  • Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, Italy, 2023
  • LCV Market: Country Insight, Spain, 2023
  • Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, Spain, 2023
  • Total Sales by Body Style, Spain, 2023
  • LCV Market: Country Insight, United Kingdom, 2023
  • Total Sales by Body Style, United Kingdom, 2023
  • Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, United Kingdom, 2023
  • LCV Market: Electrification Use Cases – Pickups, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Electrification Use Cases – Vans, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: eLCV Technology Roadmap, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: Drivetrain Architecture Mapping, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: eLCV Models by Vehicle Size, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Electric Platforms of Key OEMs, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Key Metrics for Electric Pickups, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Mileage Range of Electric Vans, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Price Range of Electric Vans, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Volume and xEV Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: Small Electric Vans–Battery Capacity and Motor Power, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Medium Electric Vans–Battery Capacity and Motor Power, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Large Electric Vans–Battery Capacity and Motor Power, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: Key eLCV Launches, Europe, 2023
  • LCV Market: EV incentives: Select Countries, Europe, 2024
  • LCV Market: Volume Forecast by Segment, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: Powertrain Share Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: Electric Powertrain Share Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: Pickup Volume Forecast and EV Penetration, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: Van Volume Forecast and EV Penetration, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: COE Truck Volume Forecast and EV Penetration, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: LCV Future Outlook by Body Style, Europe, 2023–2032
  • LCV Market: TCO Analysis, Key Assumptions, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Large Vans–TCO Share, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Large Vans–Cost per Mile, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Large Vans–Payback Period: No Incentives, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Large Vans–Payback Period: With Incentives, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Large Vans–TCO Components, Europe, 2024 and 2038
  • LCV Market: Small Vans – TCO Share, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Small Vans–Cost per Mile Cost, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Small Vans–Payback Period: No Incentives, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Small Vans–Payback Period: With Incentives, Europe, 2024–2038
  • LCV Market: Small Vans–TCO Components, Europe, 2024 and 2038
Purchase includes:
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  • Growth Dialog™ with our experts

Growth Dialog™

A tailored session with you where we identify the:
  • Strategic Imperatives
  • Growth Opportunities
  • Best Practices
  • Companies to Action

Impacting your company's future growth potential.

Frost & Sullivan expects the overall light commercial vehicle (LCV) market to reach 2.4 million units by 2032. This market is on track to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% between 2023 and 2032. Electric vehicle (EV) penetration will increase to reach 60.0% during this period, up from 6.9% in 2023. The overall size of the LCV market in Europe in 2023 was 1.9 million units. Vans held the largest volume at 1.7 million units and contributed 92.4% of the total LCV volumes. The less than 3.5t segment held 99.1% of the overall volume, and the greater than 3.5t segment made up the remaining share. One out of every 3 LCVs sold in Europe belongs to the Stellantis Group. Next comes Ford at a distant second, with a market share of 18.0%, followed closely by Renault-Nissan Group at 15.0%. German manufacturers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz with a combined share of 21.5% complete the top five players. Diesel is the primary powertrain technology for LCVs, powering 86.0% of them. Diesel powers 86.1% of the vehicles in the less than 3.5t segment, and even less in the higher-weight class of the greater than 3.5t segment, with a 75.0% share, due to the significant presence of EVs. Pickups in Europe are almost entirely used for personal applications. Meanwhile, 32.9% of vans are used for parcel and delivery applications. Utilities, mobile services, and construction applications make up 37.0% of van sales, with personal and passenger applications holding a combined share of 30.2%. The study period for this research service is 2023 to 2032.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the size of the Europe LCV market in 2023? What are the market's future growth prospects?
  • Who are the key OEMs, and what are the major applications in the LCV segment?
  • What are the prospects for electrification in the market, and who are the key players driving it?
  • How does the total cost of ownership for eLCVs compare with that of ICE LCV?
  • What is the volume of the eLCV market expected to be in the future? What are the drivers for the growth of this market? 

Author: Marshall Martin

More Information
Deliverable Type Market Research
Author Marshall Martin
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
List of Charts and Figures LCV Market: Key Findings, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: Sales Volume and Application Share, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Powertrain Split, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Volume and xEV Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: Regional Outlook, Europe, 2023–2033~ LCV Market: LCV Volumes, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: LCV Powertrain Split, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: OEM Share, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Major LCV Applications, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Key LCV Applications Share, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Country Insight, Germany, 2023~ Total Sales by Body Style, Germany, 2023~ Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, Germany, 2023~ Total Sales by Body Style, France, 2023~ LCV Market: Country Insight, France, 2023~ Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, France, 2023~ LCV Market: Country Insight, Italy, 2023~ Total Sales by Body Style, Italy, 2023~ Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, Italy, 2023~ LCV Market: Country Insight, Spain, 2023~ Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, Spain, 2023~ Total Sales by Body Style, Spain, 2023~ LCV Market: Country Insight, United Kingdom, 2023~ Total Sales by Body Style, United Kingdom, 2023~ Market Share of Top 5 OEMs, United Kingdom, 2023~ LCV Market: Electrification Use Cases – Pickups, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Electrification Use Cases – Vans, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: eLCV Technology Roadmap, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: Drivetrain Architecture Mapping, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: eLCV Models by Vehicle Size, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Electric Platforms of Key OEMs, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Key Metrics for Electric Pickups, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Mileage Range of Electric Vans, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Price Range of Electric Vans, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Volume and xEV Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: Small Electric Vans–Battery Capacity and Motor Power, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Medium Electric Vans–Battery Capacity and Motor Power, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Large Electric Vans–Battery Capacity and Motor Power, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: Key eLCV Launches, Europe, 2023~ LCV Market: EV incentives: Select Countries, Europe, 2024~ LCV Market: Volume Forecast by Segment, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: Powertrain Share Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: Electric Powertrain Share Forecast, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: Pickup Volume Forecast and EV Penetration, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: Van Volume Forecast and EV Penetration, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: COE Truck Volume Forecast and EV Penetration, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: LCV Future Outlook by Body Style, Europe, 2023–2032~ LCV Market: TCO Analysis, Key Assumptions, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Large Vans–TCO Share, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Large Vans–Cost per Mile, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Large Vans–Payback Period: No Incentives, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Large Vans–Payback Period: With Incentives, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Large Vans–TCO Components, Europe, 2024 and 2038~ LCV Market: Small Vans – TCO Share, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Small Vans–Cost per Mile Cost, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Small Vans–Payback Period: No Incentives, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Small Vans–Payback Period: With Incentives, Europe, 2024–2038~ LCV Market: Small Vans–TCO Components, Europe, 2024 and 2038~
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