Strategic Analysis of the European and North American Market for Automated Driving

Every Major OEM Group to Commercialize Semi- and Highly-automated Vehicles by 2020

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This study investigates the OEM go-to-market strategy for automated cars as compared to non-automotive efforts such as Google’s. Key automakers and potential new entrants are looking to make driverless vehicles a reality by 2020. An overall philosophy towards automated cars is provided, focusing on a targeted level of automation and introduction timelines, including key technology trends, enablers, and outlooks for automated driving-related technologies. Market size and forecasts by OEM and by region—2014 to 2020—are outlined. Business cases and OEM profiles as well as an actionable set of recommendations for aspiring OEMs looking to enter the market are offered. The base year is 2013; forecasts run 2014

Table of Contents

Executive SummaryExecutive Summary—Key FindingsMacro-level Outlook of Automated Driving—Driver InvolvementMarket Size AnalysisTraditional vs. Non-traditional Automated Driving ApproachOEM Comparative Analysis—Overall Automated Driving StrategySensor Portfolio for Automated Driving: Comparative AnalysisKey Technology Enablers for Automated DrivingValue Proposition of Automated CarsAutomated Driving Business ModelsExecutive Summary—Associated MultimediaResearch Scope, Objectives, Background, and MethodologyResearch ScopeResearch Aims and ObjectivesKey Questions this Study Will AnswerResearch MethodologyKey OEM/Player Groups Compared in this StudyIntroduction, Market Overview, and Key TrendsNational Highway and Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Automated Driving DefinitionsClassification and Definition of Automated Driving Benefits of Vehicle AutomationBusiness Models around Automated DrivingIndustry ChallengesMacro-level Outlook of Automated Driving—Application ConvergenceApplications Required for Various Levels of Vehicle AutomationConvergence of ADAS and ConnectivityOEM Comparative Analysis—AD Specifics ComparisonOEM Comparative Analysis—AD Specifics Comparison (continued)OEM Comparative Analysis—Automated Driving Cost and PackagingOEM Comparative Analysis—Automated Driving Cost and PackagingOther Applications for Automated Driving VehiclesOther On-highway Applications for Automated Driving VehiclesOff-highway Applications for Autonomous Driving VehiclesDefense Applications for Autonomous Driving VehiclesImplications of Human Machine Interface and Control of Automated VehiclesQuestions about Key Human FactorsSystem Characteristics and HMI DevelopmentManaging Control and SupervisionHuman Factors in Fully-automated VehiclesSensors and Applications RoadmapThe Automated Vehicle EE Architecture RoadmapCommunications Technology RoadmapLocalisation RoadmapLocalisation Technology RoadmapComparative Analysis of Various Automotive sensors Communication Networks EvolutionAutomated Driving—Application RoadmapDesign, Testing, and Validation of Automated CarsMeeting the Design Challenges of Automated Vehicles Cyber Security and Data EncryptionDesign of Automated VehiclesThe Need for System Resilience Design of Automated VehiclesRequirements for the Design Process of Automated VehiclesSystems Engineering Framework for Automated VehiclesValidation and Testing of Automated VehiclesSystem Assurance and Design ValidationMarket Potential Analysis for Automated DrivingAutomated Vehicles Forecast—North AmericaNorth American Automated Vehicle Forecast DiscussionAutomated Vehicles Forecast: EuropeEuropean Automated Vehicle Forecast DiscussionComparative Analysis—Automated Driving Cost & Packaging AnalysisMercedes-Benz Optional Assistance PackageOEM Profiles—Vehicle Automation Snapshot Vehicle Automation Snapshot—AudiAudi Electronic HorizonAudi Traffic Assist Activation and Manual TakeoverAudi’s Sensor SuiteVehicle Automation Snapshot—BMWProposed Architecture for highly-automated Driving (HAD) Structure—BMWBMW’s HAD ModuleBMW’s Planned Fail-safe or Fail-operational ArchitecturesVehicle Automation Snapshot—General MotorsCadillac’s Approach to Automated DrivingVehicle Automation Snapshot—Mercedes-BenzCategorization of Automated Scenarios—Mercedes-BenzMercedes-Benz—Automated Driving FeaturesOverview of Mercedes-Benz Attention AssistMercedes-Benz Electronic HorizonMercedes-Benz aims to Utilize Stereo-vision to Protect Road-users Vehicle Automation Snapshot—VolkswagenVolkswagen Electronic HorizonVolkswagen Temporary Auto Pilot (TAP)Vehicle Automation Snapshot—VolvoVolvo Electronic Horizon Volvo Autonomous ParkingGoogle Car ProjectGoogle Car—Sensors and Technologies UsedKey Innovations from Suppliers Active in Automated DrivingKey Innovations from BoschKey Innovations from ContinentalExample Architectures of Highly- and Fully-automated VehiclesKey Innovations from ValeoSuppliers’ Automated Driving Capabilities PositioningConclusions and Future OutlookMulti-faceted Implications of Automated DrivingPurpose and Functional Requirements of Fully-automated Vehicles Future Outlook and So-what AnalysisThe Last Word—3 Big PredictionsLegal DisclaimerAppendixFirst States to Allow Automated Cars on Public Roads in the USTable of Acronyms UsedLearn More—Next StepsRelevant ResearchMarket Engineering Methodology

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