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Donald Trump's ascendancy to President of the United States promises to bring big change for business. Controversial campaign rhetoric targeting topics as diverse as trade, deregulation, the environment, and healthcare coupled with Trump's long list of unconventional government appointees has created an environment of uncertainty. Citizens, businesses, and governments around the world are trying to separate the hyperbolic from the probable by asking what policies Trump will actually pursue and what preparations can be made.Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States helps provide clarity. This study examines how President Trump’s top 10 policy areas will affect business and industries in the next 4 years. Policy areas include trade, immigration, tax reform, foreign policy and defense, deregulation, budget cuts, budget increases, healthcare, the Supreme Court, and wages and education. For each area, the study outlines Trump's campaign and current position, and provides a scenario of policy implementation. Discussions for each area highlight implications for business, as well as those industries (and in some cases, countries and citizen groups) most likely to win and lose. Key questions addressed include:• What are the economic, political, and social issues that will animate Trump’s administration and what is the probability of Trump’s administration being able to enact policy changes?• How should business prepare for Trump’s policy positions?• Who stands to gain and lose the most from implementation of likely scenarios?• What are the risks and opportunities that will arise as Trump’s policies converge?Key features include:• Extensive research covering 10 policy areas central to the Trump campaign and administration• Synthesis of research areas into the top 5 impacts for each area that business should be aware of• Summary of 5 Mega Scenarios showcasing how the convergence of policies will define the United States in the near term—each scenario has a central motif, key characteristics, and strategic perspectivesKey topics include: • Trade: the North American Free Trade Agreement, trade with China, the US-Korean trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership• Immigration: Unauthorized immigration from Mexico, immigration from terror-prone nations, H-1B Visas• Tax reform: Individual tax restructuring, corporate tax restructuring• Foreign policy and defense: Russia reset, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, cyber terrorism• Deregulation: Environmental deregulation, financial deregulation• Budget cuts: The Penny Plan, environmental budget cuts• Budget increases: Infrastructure spending, defense spending• Healthcare: The Affordable Care Act, Medicare• The Supreme Court: A conservative tilt• Wages and education: Minimum wage, school choice, and Common CoreThe study time frame is from 2017 to 2020.
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