Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States

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Donald Trump's ascendancy to President of the United States promises to bring big change for business. Controversial campaign rhetoric targeting topics as diverse as trade, deregulation, the environment, and healthcare coupled with Trump's long list of unconventional government appointees has created an environment of uncertainty. Citizens, businesses, and governments around the world are trying to separate the hyperbolic from the probable by asking what policies Trump will actually pursue and what preparations can be made.

Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States helps provide clarity. This study examines how President Trump’s top 10 policy areas will affect business and industries in the next 4 years. Policy areas include trade, immigration, tax reform, foreign policy and defense, deregulation, budget cuts, budget increases, healthcare, the Supreme Court, and wages and education. For each area, the study outlines Trump's campaign and current position, and provides a scenario of policy implementation. Discussions for each area highlight implications for business, as well as those industries (and in some cases, countries and citizen groups) most likely to win and lose.

Key questions addressed include:
•     What are the economic, political, and social issues that will animate Trump’s administration and what is the probability of Trump’s
administration being able to enact policy changes?
•     How should business prepare for Trump’s policy positions?
•     Who stands to gain and lose the most from implementation of likely scenarios?
•     What are the risks and opportunities that will arise as Trump’s policies converge?

Key features include:
•     Extensive research covering 10 policy areas central to the Trump campaign and administration
•     Synthesis of research areas into the top 5 impacts for each area that business should be aware of
•     Summary of 5 Mega Scenarios showcasing how the convergence of policies will define the United States in the near term—each scenario
has a central motif, key characteristics, and strategic perspectives

Key topics include:
•     Trade: the North American Free Trade Agreement, trade with China, the US-Korean trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
•     Immigration: Unauthorized immigration from Mexico, immigration from terror-prone nations, H-1B Visas
•     Tax reform: Individual tax restructuring, corporate tax restructuring
•     Foreign policy and defense: Russia reset, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, cyber terrorism
•     Deregulation: Environmental deregulation, financial deregulation
•     Budget cuts: The Penny Plan, environmental budget cuts
•     Budget increases: Infrastructure spending, defense spending
•     Healthcare: The Affordable Care Act, Medicare
•     The Supreme Court: A conservative tilt
•     Wages and education: Minimum wage, school choice, and Common Core

The study time frame is from 2017 to 2020.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary—Mega Scenarios and Top Impacts
Executive Summary—Mega Scenarios
Interactions will be Driven by the Dynamics of Self-Determination
The Politics of Nostalgia will Meet Modernized Solutions
Polarization will Become Even More Pronounced
Soundbite Messaging will Direct Engagements
America First will Redefine Global Order
Impact on GDP—Increased Growth is Expected through 2018
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Trade
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Immigration
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Tax Reform
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Deregulation
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Cuts
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Increases
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Healthcare
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on the Supreme Court
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Wages and Education
2. Research Methodology, Objectives, and Definitions
Research Scope
Aims and Objectives
Research Background
Research Methodology—From Macro-to-micro
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
3. Trump on Trade
Trump on Trade—Issues Discussed
Trump on NAFTA
NAFTA has Forged Intricate Economic Links
NAFTA has Both Displaced and Created Jobs
Canada Stands to Gain and Lose from NAFTA Renegotiations
NAFTA has Bolstered US Services Exports
Implications of Trump on NAFTA
Trump on NAFTA—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on Trade with China
Is China Currently Manipulating its Currency to Improve Exports?
China’s Response to Trade Targeting
The RCEP and China’s Global Standing
How a Trade War with China and Mexico Would Affect the US Economy
Implications of Trump on Trade with China
Trump on Trade with China—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on KORUS
US Trade Deficits have Risen Since KORUS was Passed
Implications of Trump on KORUS
Trump on KORUS—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on the TPP
Without the TPP, the United States Loses a Major Foothold in Asia
Implications of Trump on the TPP
Trump on the TPP—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on the TTIP
The TTIP Would Have Faced Criticism from Both Sides of the Pond
Implications of Trump on the TTIP
Trump on the TTIP—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Trade
4. Trump on Immigration
Trump on Immigration—Issues Discussed
Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico
Trends in Unauthorized Immigration to the United States
Sanctuary Cities at the Center of Economic Tension
Building a Wall will Contribute to an Expanding Border Patrol Budget
Implications of Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico
Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries
Immigration from Terror-prone Countries
Immigrants are Vital to Small Business Growth in the United States
Implications of Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries
Trump Immigration from Terror-prone Countries—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on H-1B Visas
Characteristics of H-1B Visa Recipients
The H-1B Controversy is a Matter of Geography
Implications of Trump on H-1B Visas
Trump on H-1B Visas—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Immigration
5. Trump on Tax Reform
Trump on Tax Reform—Issues Discussed
Overview of Proposed Tax Reforms
Trump on Individual Tax Reforms
Estimated Impact of Individual Tax Reforms
The Goal of Lower Taxes is to Stimulate Consumer Spending
Implications of Trump on Individual Tax Restructuring
Trump on Individual Tax Restructuring—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on Corporate Tax Reform
Estimated Impact of Corporate Tax Reforms
Reforms are Needed to Increase Global Competitiveness
Overseas Cash Repatriation Would Have Mixed Effects
Implications of Trump on Corporate Tax Reform
Trump on Corporate Tax Reforms—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Tax Reform
6. Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense
Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense—Issues Discussed
Trump on a Russian Reset
Better Relations with Russia will Hinge on Trump’s Use of Sanctions
Implications of Trump on a Russian Reset
Trump on a Russian Reset—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on NATO
The United States is the Highest Contributor of NATO Funding
Implications of Trump on NATO
Trump on NATO—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on Cyber Terrorism
Cyber Crimes Have been Plaguing the United States
Implications of Trump on Cyber Terrorism
Trump on Cyber Terrorism—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense
7. Trump on Deregulation
Trump on Deregulation—Issues Discussed
Trump on Environmental Deregulation
Trump’s Targeting of Environmental Regulations will Help the Fossil Fuel Industry
Coal Could Stabilize but Face Greater Competition from Natural Gas
Trump will Look to Increase Federal Land Leases
Implications of Trump on Environmental Deregulation
Trump on Environmental Deregulation—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on Financial Deregulation
Three Paths Proposed in US Financial Regulation
Financial Deregulation will Benefit and Weaken Consumers
Financial Service Institutions will Greatly Benefit from Reduced Compliance Costs and Greater Freedom to Maneuver
Implications of Trump on Financial Deregulation
Trump on Financial Deregulation—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Deregulation
8. Trump on Federal Budget Cuts
Trump on Federal Budget Cuts—Issues Discussed
Trump on the Penny Plan
It Remains Uncertain Exactly What Budgets the Penny Plan Would Cut
Implications of Trump on Budget Cuts—The Penny Plan
Trump on the Penny Plan—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts
Trump will Call for Environmental Spending Control
Implications of Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts
Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Cuts
9. Trump on Federal Budget Increases
Trump on Federal Budget Increases—Issues Discussed
Trump on Infrastructure Spending
The United States Needs Greater Infrastructure Investment
Private Investment in Infrastructure Projects will Rise
Implications of Trump on Infrastructure Spending
Federal Budget Increases—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on Defense Spending
Increasing Defense Spending will Put Pressure on Other Discretionary Spending
Implications of Trump on Defense Spending
Trump on Defense Spending—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Increases
10. Trump on Healthcare
Trump on Healthcare—Issues Discussed
Trump on the ACA
The ACA is Embedded in America’s Healthcare Sector
Trump’s ACA Policies would Increase Out-of-pocket Spending
Repealing the ACA Could Cost between $50 Billion and $250 Billion
Implications of Trump on ACA
Trump on the ACA—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on Medicare
The Number of Medicare Recipients will Continue to Grow
Trump’s ACA Repeal Policy Would Increase Direct Federal Spending
Implications of Trump on Medicare
Trump on Medicare—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Healthcare
11. Trump on the Supreme Court
Trump on the Supreme Court—Issues Discussed
Trump on a Conservative Tilt
An Influx of New Justices Could Shape SCOTUS for the Next Decade
SCOTUS will Tackle Patent Infringement Venues in 2017
A Trump SCOTUS Nominee Could Impact 23 Cases on the 2017 Docket
Implications of Trump on a Conservative Tilt
Trump on a Conservative Tilt—Potential Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on the Supreme Court
12. Trump on Wages and Education
Trump on Wages and Education—Issues Discussed
Trump on Minimum Wage
Minimum Wages across the United States
Implications of Trump on the Minimum Wage
Trump on the Minimum Wage—Potential Winners and Losers
Trump on School Choice and Common Core
Charter Schools Have Shown Consistent Growth
Implications of Trump on School Choice and Common Core
Trump on School Choice—Winners and Losers
Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Wages and Education
13. The Last Word
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
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Infographic



List of Figures & Charts

1. Overview of Recent US-Canada Trade Issues, US and Canada, as of 2016
2. Trump on NAFTA: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
3. Perspectives on US Trade with China, 2009–2016
4. Pending Trade Relationships with China, Global, 2016
5. Trump on Trade with China: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
6. Top Trade Categories, US, 2015
7. Trump on KORUS: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
8. Participating TPP Nations, Global, 2016
9. Trump on the TPP: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
10. Participating TTIP Nations, Global, 2016
11. Trump on the TTIP: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
12. Annual State and Local Tax Contribution of Unauthorized Immigrants, Contiguous US, 2016
13. Unauthorized Immigrant Population by State and Prominent Sanctuary Cities, Contiguous US, 2014 and 2016*
14. US Customs and Border Patrol 2017 Budget Request Highlights
15. Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
16. Proportion of Refugees in Immigrant Population, US, 2015
17. Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
18. Trump on H-1B Visas: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
19. Trump-proposed Tax Reforms, US, 2017–2020
20. Trump on Individual Income Tax Cuts: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
21. Trump on Corporate Tax Reform: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
22. Trump on a Russian Reset: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
23. Trump on NATO: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
24. Trump on Cyber Terrorism: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
25. Environmental Regulations that Trump is Expected to Target, US, 2016
26. Map of Onshore Federal and Indian Lands, US, 2015
27. Trump on Environmental Deregulation: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
28. Trump on Financial Deregulation: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
29. Trump on The Penny Plan: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
30. Probability of Environment-Related Budget Cuts by Department, US, 2017
31. Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
32. Overview of PPP Projects, US, 2005–2014
33. Trump on Infrastructure Spending: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
34. Projected Targets by Defense Departments and Estimated Costs During Presidential Term, US, 2016–2020
35. Trump on Defense Spending: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
36. Estimated Economic Impact of Repealing the ACA with no Replacement Plan, US, 2019–2029
37. Impact of Repealing the ACA on the Federal Budget, US, 2017–2026
38. Impact of Replacing the ACA* on the Federal Budget, US, 2018
39. Trump on ACA: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
40. Impact of Repealing the ACA’s Medicare Provisions on the Federal Budget, US, 2017–2026
41. Trump on Medicare: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
42. Supreme Court Make-Up, US, as of 2016
43. Supreme Court Precedents and Cases Likely to Impact Business*, US, 2016–2017 term
44. Trump’s Impact on SCOTUS Timeline, US, 2016–2017 Term
45. Trump on the Supreme Court: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
46. Trump on the Minimum Wage: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020
47. Map of Common Core Adoption by State, US, 2016
48. Trump on School Choice: Impact Analysis, US, 2017–2020


? 1. Projected Change in Real GDP, US and Global, 2016–2018
2. Projected Change in Real GDP, Impacted Economies and Global, 2016–2018
3. Commodity Trade, US Perspective, 1992–2015
4. FDI to Mexico from Canada and the US, 1992–2015
5. Manufacturing Productivity versus Employment, US, 1992–2016
6. US Services Trade Surplus with Canada and Mexico, 1999–2015
7. Nominal Effective Exchange Rates of the Dollar versus the Yuan, US and China, 2005–November 2016
8. Trend Impact on US GDP Based on Trade War Scenarios, Global, 2015–2025
9. Total Trade* with South Korea, US Perspective, 2011–2015
10. Unauthorized Immigrants, US, 2014
11. Unauthorized Immigrant Share of Workers by Industry, US, 2014
12. Immigrant Share of Total Population, US, 2015
13. Refugee Admissions by Religion, US, 2002–2016
14. Small Business Owner Share of Labor Force by Country of Origin, US, 2010
15. Share of Foreign-born Small Business Owners by Establishment Type, US, 2010
16. Number of Filed versus Approved H-1B Visas by Approval Type, US, FY2013–FY2015*
17. Breakdown of Approved H-1B Visas by Country of Origin and Occupation, US, FY2014*
18. Salary Range of Top 2 Occupations for H-1B Recipients versus All Workers—25th to 75th Percentile, US, FY2014
19. Total Estimated Effect of Trump’s Tax Plan for Individuals on Tax Revenues, US, 2017–2020
20. Annual Average Estimated Federal Tax Savings under House GOP and Trump Proposals by Income Quintile, US, 2017–2020
21. Post-Tax Discretionary Spending Ability* by Income Decile, US, 2015
22. Total Estimated Effect of Trump’s Tax Plan for Businesses on Tax Revenue, US, 2017–2020
23. Combined Corporate Income Tax Rates, Selected Economies, 2016
24. Percentage of CFOs Noted as Having a Specific Plan for Spending Repatriated Cash, US, Q4 2016
25. Top Priority of Companies for Capital Allocations in 2017, Global, Q4 2016*
26. GDP, Russia, 2000–2016
27. Defense Expenditure as a Share of GDP*, NATO Nations, 2014-2016
28. Total Defense Expenditure**, NATO, 2016
29. Cybercrime Complaints, US, 2011–2015
30. Number of Data Breaches and Records Exposed, US, 2012–2016
31. GHG Emissions Reduction Scenarios, US, 2000–2025
32. Total Electricity Supply Estimates by Source and Scenario, US, 2015, 2022, 2040
33. Levelized Cost Range of Electricity by Source, US, Plants Coming Online in 2022 and 2040*
34. Fossil Fuel Sales of Production by Land Ownership, US, FY2003–FY2014
35. Average Credit Score for Fannie Mae Loans, US, 2000–2015
36. Assets in IRAs, US, 2010 and 2015
37. SPDR XPF Closing Share Price, US, 2016–2017
38. Reduction in Caps For Non-defense Discretionary Budget As Per The Penny Plan, US, 2016–2026
39. Distribution of Federal Spending, US, 2015
40. Infrastructure Spending Relative to GDP, US, 1960–2014
41. Trends in Infrastructure Spending and Unemployment, US, 2000–2014
42. Discretionary Spending, US, 2010–2020
43. Breakdown of Non-defense Discretionary Spending by Large Spending Areas, US, 2016
44. Number of Uninsured Americans with ACA, ACA Repeal, and ACA Replace with Trump Proposals, US, 2018
45. Estimated Impact on Average Annual Out-of-Pocket Spending for Individual Market Enrollees* based on Trump Proposals, US, 2018
46. Trends in Medicare Spending and the Population of Medicare-Eligible Citizens, US, 2000–2020
47. States with Minimum Wages Higher than Federal Mandates, US, 2016
48. Industry Share of Minimum Wage Workers, US, 2015
49. Number of Charter Schools and Students, US, School Year 2010/11– 2014/15



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Release Date : 20-Oct-17

Region : North America

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