The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Alternative Fuels Industry

Transformative Megatrends

• Why

  • The transport industry accounts for 30% of the global energy demand, of which 90% comprises oil products.
  • Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transport sector amount to about 8 gigatonnes a year, about one-seventh of global emissions.
  • Mandates on using low-carbon fuels, such as biofuels, biogas, and e-fuels, are changing globally, with the support of government policies and legislation to achieve net-zero targets.
• Frost Perspective
  • As governments globally develop blending mandates for alternative fuels, the demand for fuels such as biodiesel, renewable diesel, bio-liquefied natural gas (LNG), and e-fuels will double by 2030.
  • Technological advancements in processes and new feedstocks will increase the adoption rate during the next 3–5 years.
  • Renewable diesel, or hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), has the same chemical and physical properties as conventional diesel but a low carbon content, reducing emissions.

Disruptive Technologies

• Why

  • Sustainability trends, such as reducing carbon emissions and deploying electrifying processes, are gaining importance globally.
  • New disruptive technologies, such as AI, the Internet of Things, and robotics, are revolutionizing oil and gas operations.
  • These technologies will complement human labor and enable oil and gas companies to increase safety, efficiency, and productivity in their fuel transformation activities.
• Frost Perspective
  • Technological advances and economies of scale make renewable energy production and electrolyzer capital and operational costs more competitive.
  • Research and development (R&D) activities will enhance their competitiveness and adoption.

Industry Convergence

• Why

  • Alternative fuels find applications in all industries where greenhouse gases (GHGs) are evident and difficult to abate. Achieving climate goals is impossible without cross-industry support.
  • Increased adoption of alternative fuels is facilitated by sharing the lessons various industries have learned throughout their pilot phases.
  • This will provide technology developers and service providers opportunities to explore new avenues and industries, offering a broader operational space.
• Frost Perspective
  • Cross-industry convergence is inevitable in the alternative fuels market, with many oil and gas companies already collaborating with airline companies to develop a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market.
  • Airline companies are collaborating with technology developers to design and develop engines for low-carbon fuels.
  • The alternative fuels sector is piloting synthetic fuels from Shell and ExxonMobil using green hydrogen and captured CO2.

Scope of Analysis

• The market comprises 3 main segments: biofuels, Gases (biogas and biomethane), and eFuels. The industry sometimes refers to eFuels as synthetic fuels and SAF as bio-jet fuel.

• The study calculates the total production capacity of alternative fuels using standard conversion units and normalizes figures to MTPA. It converts biogas capacity from billion cubic meters or Mtoe to MTPA, using standard conversion units.
• The report covers 4 regions:
  • The Americas—The United States, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay
  • Europe—Germany, the Netherlands, France, Norway, the United Kingdom, Finland, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and Portugal
  • Asia-Pacific (APAC)—India, China, Japan, and Australia
  • The Rest of the World (RoW)—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ukraine, Turkey, Morocco, and the Czech Republic
• The research calculates the market value for each segment using the production cost of each subsegment, applying appropriate currency conversions and US dollar normalization where necessary.

Segmentation 

Alternative Fuels

• Biofuels

  • Biodiesel
  • Biomethanol
  • Bioethanol
  • Renewable Diesel
  • SAF
  • Biobutanol
• Gases
  • Biogas
  • Biomethane
  • R-CNG
  • Bio-LNG
• eFuels
  • eMethane
  • eMethanol
  • eSAF
  • eDiesel
  • eGasoline
  • eAmmonia
  • eHydrogen

Competitive Environment

Key Competitors 

Global

• Shell
• BP
• Chevron
• ExxonMobil
• Total Energies
• Eni Spa
• Suncor
• Raizen
• Imperial Oil
• ConocoPhillips
• Engie SA
• PlanET Biogas

North America

• Occidental
• Twelve
• LanzaTech
• Valero Energy
• PBF Energy
• Petrobras
• Delek US Holdings
• Cargill Inc
• Big River Resource
• Alto LLC
• Diamond Green Diesel
• Montana Renewables
• Marathon Petroleum
• Calumet
• Ag processing Inc
• RBF
• Archer Daniels Midland
• Gevo
• Alder Renewables
• Fulcrum Bioenergy
• 1pointfive

Europe

• Neste
• Equinor
• Topsoe
• Galp Energia
• Verbio
• Vertex Bioenergy
• Synhelion
• Repsol
• La Rabida
• UPM
• Saras
• CEPSA (Cádiz)
• Tidewater
• Preem AB
• S1 and SCA
• Borregaard
• Pck Raffinerie GmbH
• AEV Energy GmbH
• Gasum Ltd

Asia-Pacific

• Petronas
• Sumitomo
• Global Green Chemicals
• Patum Vegetable Oil Co., Ltd.
• New Biodiesel Co., Ltd.
• BBGI Biodiesel Co., Ltd.
• Zhuoyue New Energy
• Zhejiang Jia’ao Environment Protection
• Haixin Energy Technology
• Zhongdiyou New Energy
• Pt. Pertamina (Persero)
• Praj Industries
• Energy Absolute
• AI Energy PCL.
• Energy Absolute PCL.
• PPP Green Complex Co., Ltd.
• Circular Energy Co., Ltd.

RoW

• Saudi Aramco
• Independent Petroleum Laboratory Limited
• Green Energy & Biofuels
• Ultra Motors (Pty) Ltd

Revenue and Production Forecast

Alternative Fuels: Revenue and Production Forecast, Global, 2022–2030

Revenue CAGR = 16.1%