Asia-Pacific Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends, H1 2018

Asia-Pacific Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends, H1 2018

Uneven Economic Growth; Countries Navigate Trade Policy Uncertainties

RELEASE DATE
12-Feb-2019
REGION
Asia Pacific
Research Code: 9A6C-00-18-00-00
SKU: CI00601-AP-DE_22859

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Description

Economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region slumped from 5.2% in Q4 2017 to 5.0% in Q1 2018, as the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States had repercussions for global trade growth. China’s growth is likely to slump further from the 6.2% registered in Q2 2018, as manufacturing output started declining in Q2 2018. Australian economic growth is expected to become slow in the latter half of 2018, dragged by a reduction in consumer spending. India has continued on its high growth trajectory driven by the resumption of investment activities and strong consumption. India’s government has increased the budget for infrastructure spending, which is expected to further drive growth. In Q1 2018, growth lagged slightly in Indonesia to 5.1% from 5.2% in Q4 2017, mainly due to slower than expected growth in household consumption, investments, and exports. In Thailand, the country's robust export growth, expansion of tourism-related sector, and strong private consumption have been driving growth. However, the continued strengthening of Thai Baht poses a risk to the country’s export driven manufacturing sector. Vietnam’s manufacturing sector is posting strong growth in 2018, which supported an economic growth of 7.1% in Q2 2018. Japan and South Korea with a GDP growth of 1.2% and 2.8% growth respectively recorded the lowest growth in the region. Slow growth in export and private consumption is expected to continue restraining growth in Japan. While in South Korea, growing unemployment and low business confidence have restrained growth. Nepal’s growth is expected to normalize after the sharp growth in 2017, which can be attributed to higher government spending on reconstruction efforts.

Asia-Pacific region remains vulnerable to the policy uncertainty in the United States. While China’s trade is being impacted by higher tariff, countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are likely to witness higher investment as businesses are moving away from China to navigate the ongoing trade war with the United States.

Country Coverage – Asia-Pacific
·     Australia
·     China
·     India
·     Indonesia
·     Japan
·     Malaysia
·     Nepal
·     South Korea
·     Sri Lanka
·     Thailand
·     Vietnam

Sector Coverage:
Economic Indicators, Demographics, Energy, Manufacturing, Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Plastics, Mining, Electricity, Construction, Agriculture, Healthcare, Information, and Communication Technologies.

Indicator coverage:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components, GDP Growth, Export & Import, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, Business Confidence, Population & Demographics, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Value Add by Industry, Trade by Industry, IIP by Industry, Production of Important Commodities, Oil Production & Consumption, Oil Export & Import, Renewable Energy, Emissions, Coal Production & Consumption, Healthcare Spending, Internet, and Mobile Subscription.
Regional GDP Growth calculation

Year, Quarter and Month Coverage
·     Yearly Data: 2012 – 2022
·     Quarterly Data: Q1 2012 – Q2 2020
·     Monthly Data: January 2012 – June 2018

Table of Contents

Asia Pacific Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends H1 2018

Related Research
Economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region slumped from 5.2% in Q4 2017 to 5.0% in Q1 2018, as the escalation of the trade war between China and the United States had repercussions for global trade growth. China’s growth is likely to slump further from the 6.2% registered in Q2 2018, as manufacturing output started declining in Q2 2018. Australian economic growth is expected to become slow in the latter half of 2018, dragged by a reduction in consumer spending. India has continued on its high growth trajectory driven by the resumption of investment activities and strong consumption. India’s government has increased the budget for infrastructure spending, which is expected to further drive growth. In Q1 2018, growth lagged slightly in Indonesia to 5.1% from 5.2% in Q4 2017, mainly due to slower than expected growth in household consumption, investments, and exports. In Thailand, the country's robust export growth, expansion of tourism-related sector, and strong private consumption have been driving growth. However, the continued strengthening of Thai Baht poses a risk to the country’s export driven manufacturing sector. Vietnam’s manufacturing sector is posting strong growth in 2018, which supported an economic growth of 7.1% in Q2 2018. Japan and South Korea with a GDP growth of 1.2% and 2.8% growth respectively recorded the lowest growth in the region. Slow growth in export and private consumption is expected to continue restraining growth in Japan. While in South Korea, growing unemployment and low business confidence have restrained growth. Nepal’s growth is expected to normalize after the sharp growth in 2017, which can be attributed to higher government spending on reconstruction efforts. Asia-Pacific region remains vulnerable to the policy uncertainty in the United States. While China’s trade is being impacted by higher tariff, countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia are likely to witness higher investment as businesses are moving away from China
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Rituparna Majumder
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number 9A6C-00-18-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9A6C