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Electric Drive Train Systems Technology Evolution and Global Market Potential in Commercial Vehicles, Forecast to 2030
Battery, Motor, and Power Electronics Market will Gain Growth Momentum, and the Revenue is Estimated to be $44.72 Billion by 2030
04-Nov-2019
Global
Market Research
Electrification in Commercial Vehicles (CV) will increase globally with the framing of strict emission regulations. The growing electric CV market will open up opportunities for new technologies and components that drive the vehicle. This study provides an overview of the key technology trends in electric drive train component market and also provides the component market revenue forecast between 2018 and 2030. Several architectures and types of drive train components in electric CV are studied in brief. Frost & Sullivan analysts predict that the electric drive train market for CV will reach $44.72 billion in revenue in 2030 globally, growing at a CAGR of 17.7% between 2018 and 2030. This research study covers battery, motors, inverters, and wiring harness used in electric CVs.
China will clearly dominate, with approximately 64.8% share of the global market by 2030, driven mainly by aggressive incentive structures for electric vehicles, technology readiness, and the installation of recharging stations in large scale. Europe and North America are expected to be the next largest markets after China, with more number of product line-ups planned by native manufacturers.
Batteries will be the largest segment by value, with revenue crossing $40.82 billion by 2030. With the increasing demand for batteries, the price is expected to fall to below $100 per KWh by 2030 and the lower battery cost will make the trucks commercially viable for fleets. CVs will largely adopt the Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) battery chemistry due to high discharge capacities and optimal pricing. Mostly, light-duty trucks follow central motor architecture and medium- and heavy-duty trucks follow the wheel hub architecture, that will adopt in-wheel architecture in the future. Permanent magnet motors will be widely used in small GVWR segments and induction motors will be preferred in large GVWR segments. Switched reluctance motors will gain popularity after 2025. The xEV motor market’s revenue is estimated to be $2.46 billion in 2030, with China leading the market.
Power electronics is another large segment in the EV component market. Silicon Carbide (SiC) and Gallium Nitride (GaN) semiconductors will be preferred over silicon semiconductors for improved performance and packaging benefits in designing inverters. The inverter market is estimated to grow to $1.32 billion in 2030 from $0.28 billion in 2018. Single and multicore wire harness made from aluminium or copper alloys with high-end fluoro rubber insulation will be the key technologies to address high-voltage safety and durability at higher voltages. OEMs are looking for new wiring harness technologies that help in weight reduction. Frost and Sullivan forecasts the wiring harness market to be $130 million in 2030.
Along with technology acquisition, intense competition is foreseen among component manufacturers to adopt technologies and gain market share. With the increasing potential, OEMs will soon start manufacturing the components in-house, rather than sourcing from Tier-1 manufacturers. With growing demand for electric trucks and buses, the component industries in Europe and China are expanding their production goals and investment strategies, as the market value is expected to be more than $44.72 billion by 2030.
Key Findings
Evolution of Electrically Driven Commercial Mobility
Factors Driving Electrification
Factors Driving Electrification (continued)
Factors Driving Electrification (continued)
EV Technology Roadmap
Global Electric CV Market Forecast—Overview
Global Electric CV Drivetrain Component Market—Revenue Forecast
Key Joint Ventures in Battery and Fuel Cell—2019
Electric Drive Train Component Supplier Analysis
C.A.S.E.ification—Conclusions and Implications
Research Scope
Powertrain Technology Segmentation
Definitions
Electric Motors in Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Key Questions this Study will Answer
Research Background
Research Methodology
Partial List of Industry Participants
Key Factors Impacting Electrification
Legislative Factors Analysis
Economic Factors Analysis
Economic Factors Analysis (continued)
Infrastructure Factors Analysis
Technological Factors Analysis
Electric CV—Unit Forecast Scenario Analysis
Global Electric CV Market Forecast—Overview
Electric CV Market Potential—2030
Global Uptake of xEV in CV
Electric LDT Unit Forecast by Region and Powertrain Type
Electric MDT Unit Forecast by Region and Powertrain Type
Electric HDT Unit Forecast by Region and Powertrain Type
Electric Bus Unit Forecast by Region and Powertrain Type
Schematic Representation of Battery Placement in Electric CV
Future of Battery Chemistries
Lithium Ion Batteries Look Promising
NMC Battery Chemistry Gains Popularity
Li-ion Battery Cost Breakdown
Li-ion Battery Cell Cost Breakdown by Chemistry
Battery Pack Cost Analysis
Battery Capacity and Revenue Forecast by Region
Battery Production Scenario—Regional Overview
Battery Production Capacity by Manufacturer
OEM—Battery Capacity Analysis
Vehicle Range and Battery Capacity
Battery Chemistry Analysis—Key OEMs
OEM—Supplier Mapping
Electric Motor Roadmap
Schematic Representation of Electric Driveline Configurations
Electric Driveline Architecture
Electric Driveline Architecture Benchmarking
Rare Earth Metals in Permanent Magnets
Induction Motor to Gain Popularity by 2025
Electric Motor Benchmarking
North America—Unit Motor Forecast by Segment
North America—Unit Forecast by Motor Type and Power Rating (kW)
Europe—Unit Motor Forecast by Segment
Europe—Unit Forecast by Motor Type and Power Rating (kW)
China—Unit Motor Forecast by Segment
China—Unit Forecast by Motor Type and Power Rating (kW)
India—Unit Motor Forecast by Segment
India—Unit Forecast by Motor Type and Power Rating (kW)
Global Electric CV Motor Revenue Forecast
Analysis of Motor Rating Broken Down by Power Range
Supplier-Motor Type Mapping—North America
Supplier-Motor Type Mapping—Europe
Schematic Representation of Power Electronics Components
Power Electronics Roadmap
Future of Automotive Inverters
Inverter Capacity and Revenue Forecast by Region
Automotive Wire Harness Material Roadmap
Cable Construction for a High Voltage xEV Application
Current and Future Insulator Material in Wire Harness
Revenue Forecast by Region of Wire Harness Forecast
xEV Power Electronics—Supplier Mapping
Growth Opportunity
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
Electric Drive Train Component Future Outlook
Key Conclusion
The Last Word—3 Big Predictions
Legal Disclaimer
Market Engineering Methodology
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
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| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| No Index | No |
| Podcast | No |
| Author | Darwin Sebas |
| Industries | Automotive |
| WIP Number | K3A0-01-00-00-00 |
| Is Prebook | No |
| GPS Codes | 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6 |