European Sustainable Aviation Fuel Growth Opportunities, 2024 2030

Scope of analysis

• The aviation industry accounts for 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions, prompting a shift towards sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to mitigate environmental impact.
• SAF can potentially reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 94%, depending on the production pathway and feedstock.
• SAF is produced from various non-petroleum feedstocks, including waste oil, solid waste, crops, waste gas, and algae.
• ASTM International has approved 11 SAF production pathways, with more methods under consideration.
• The transition to SAF accelerated after the approval of up to 50% blended SAF in aircraft operations in 2011.
• The ICAO and IATA have set ambitious goals for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
• Virgin Atlantic's transatlantic flight powered entirely by SAF in November 2023 marks a significant milestone.
• SAF has been used in over 400,000 commercial flights, primarily as a drop-in fuel.
• The blending limit for SAF currently ranges from 5% to 50%, which affects scalability and emission reduction potential.
• The report analyzes the European SAF industry, focusing on production pathways, feedstocks, and market trends until 2030.

Segmentation

SAF

• Fischer-Tropsch (FT)
  • This method consists of the conversion of syngas into SAF and other liquid hydrocarbons. Syngas is obtained from various waste sources.
  • Hydrogen and CO2 can be synthesized into syngas and then further processed into fuel by this pathway, producing power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels, the most sustainable yet costly alternative.
  • Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ)
  • Plants currently under development draw attention to this pathway, which is expected to gain prominence.
  • It involves converting alcohol into jet fuel, facilitated by existing ethanol production infrastructure.
• Hydroprocessed Esters & Fatty Acids (HEFA)
  • HEFA is the dominant pathway due to lower costs and technology maturity.
  • HEFA uses feedstock such as used cooking oil, animal fat, and other lipid-rich materials. As other industries also use these, feedstock limitations turn HEFA into one of the least scalable and sustainable pathways.
• Other Production Pathways
  • These include less commercially relevant pathways, such as direct sugars to hydrocarbons, catalytic hydrothermolysis jet fuel, and co-processing.
  • Usually, scalability concerns in terms of feedstock or technology restrict these pathways’ usage.

Competitive Environment