Global 5G IoT NTN Connectivity Growth Opportunities, 2024 2028

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the 5G IoT NTN Industry

Segmentation

Industry Segmentation

• 5G NR-NTN D2C Services
  • NTNs ensure D2C services, including the expansion of cellphone mobile coverage in hard-to-reach locations and rural settings. Broadband internet expansion to home in remote locations is also included in D2C services.
  • Main applications: Emergency and messaging services, disaster response, and recovery operations.

• IoT NTN (mMTC)

  • NB-IoT (NB-NTN) and LTE-M (eMTC) terrestrial networks are integrated with NTNs to ensure connectivity over long distances.
  • These are designed to specifically provide connectivity for massive IoT deployments (5G mMTC).

• Unlicensed LPWAN-based Satellite Connectivity

  • The integration of LPWAN protocols with NTNs is growing for IoT use cases.
  • These integrated technologies enable applications that required reduced energy consumption and long-distance connectivity.

• Satellite IoT Connectivity

  • This category enables the provision of wireless connectivity and data services to remote and rural communities.
  • This type of service is not standards-based; proprietary technology is used instead.
  • Key applications: agriculture, transportation, military, asset tracking, fleet monitoring, energy, emergency response, and manufacturing.

Growth Drivers 

• 5G NR technology development and 5G network availability across regions are enabling new use cases. 5G brings multiple benefits to NTNs, including service delivery in areas that lack coverage and the ability to move devices used for M2M/IoT applications.
• The acceleration of the satellite launch industry is facilitating the proliferation of LEO satellites at scale. Ecosystem collaboration around NTNs is growing fast. Hardware makers, system integrators, satellite vendors, and MNOs/MVNOs are working together for testing and evaluation. NTN commercial services are expected to accelerate.
• Terrestrial and satellite network integration provides greater coverage in remote geographic areas. This integration enables large-scale IoT deployments.
• New standardized manufacturing techniques and automation enable the fast and cost-efficient production of LEO satellites. 

Growth Restraints

• The operational and deployment costs for sending constellations into space remain high, requiring business cases with numerous connected devices to make the project profitable. Financial constraints resulted in satellite operators and start-ups incurring financial insolvencies.
• Major advanced economies are facing a recession, which results in less capital for investments in space start-ups. Frost & Sullivan's study revealed that the major investors in space, including China and the United States, are experiencing a growth slowdown.
• The 5G IoT NTN connectivity industry is highly fragmented with more than 30-60 satellite operators that deliver NTN services for IoT and smartphones. This fragmentation may result in fierce competition, pushing new companies into a difficult scenario to compete with traditional satellite IoT connectivity providers.
• Testing applications in space is difficult as it requires complex infrastructure development and coordination, including ground stations, IoT devices, satellites, and networks.

Competitive Environment