Global Medium-Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2019

Global Medium-Heavy Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2019

2019 to be a Defining Year for the Evolution of New Business Models Around Electric Trucks and Digital Services

RELEASE DATE
12-Apr-2019
REGION
Global
Research Code: K353-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU01825-GL-MO_23020

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Description

Global medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) trucks sales grew 4.5% in 2018 from 2017 due to sustained growth in top truck markets of North America, China (Heavy duty truck sales stayed above 1 million mark), along with continual growth in India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia. In 2019, growth in North America, South America, Russia, India, Indonesia is expected to continue to be positive, while China, although over the 1 million mark in 2019, will be a smaller market than in 2018. However, speedy implementation of "Blue Sky" regulations, announced in July 2018, resulting in the rapid phasing out of 1 Million China III compliant trucks in 2019 itself can boost medium-heavy duty (MD-HD) truck sales in 2019.

Electric powertrain, autonomous driving, connected devices and digital services continued to receive great interest (and investor dollars) in 2018 and is expected to continue to rise into 2019. While electric powertrains are beginning to be adopted in niche applications like refuse trucks where their total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) is already lower than diesel powered counterparts, the TCO parity in other applications will take as much as 2025. Autonomous technology too while fast developing with technology giants like NVIDIA throwing their weight behind it combining with start-ups like tuSmiple, drive.ai and Embark, SAE Level4 autonomous is still a decade out. Telematics devices however are experiencing double digit growth year-after-year including in TRIAD markets as well as China. By end of 2019, Among digital services, alongside the continued growth of telematics devices and services, digital freight brokerage solutions also received a hug boost with nearly $2.346 Billion invested across North America, South America, Europe, China, India and Russia.

Although battery electric powertrains receive great attention in trade shows and new channels,natural gas (NG) is a quietly growing alternative powertrain option especially in Europe and China where there is great regulatory pressure to cut emissions. Even in North America, roll out of California air resource board's (CARB) ultra-low NOx regulations will propel NG adoption in MD-HD trucks since current diesel engines cannot meet the proposed NOx limits. While 2017 was a very good year for NG trucks in China since diesel cost 30% more than NG. Despite the fact that LNG truck cost about 60,000 yuan higher than diesel truck, truck fleets estimated they could save about 3000 yuan per trip on back hauls and hence make good the extra cost within an year. However towards end of 2017 government policy forced industrial power generation to switch from coal to NG, resulting in the increase of LNG price by 90% from $5.8 in august 2017 to $ 11 in January 2018. This resulted in China NG MD-HD truck sales crashing nearly 62% in 2018 to 34,267 units compared to 90,047 units in 2017.

Some of the key trends to watch out for in 2019 will be the proliferation of digital freight brokerage solutions, increased funding and employee base electric and autonomous driving solutions, alongside a slew of new product launches by truck OEMs which include Freightliner Cascadia Level 2 autonomous vehicle in North America as well as IVECO New Stralis NP460 LNG in Europe.

This study covers sales forecasts for 2019 and trends into 2025 across- North America, South America, Europe, China, India, Russia, Next 11 and rest-of-the-world.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What will be the size of the global truck market in 2019?
  • Which truck markets are expected to grow in 2019 and which will contract? Why?
  • What are some of the new product launches expected in 2019?
  • What are some of the key trucking related trends in 2018's leading non-TRIAD markets- China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia?
  • What are the key new technologies in powertrain, components, and soft technologies?
  • What is the projected penetration of powertrain technologies across regions?

Author: Silpa Paul

Table of Contents

2018 Key Highlights

Global GDP and Commercial Trucks—Growth Outlook 2019

Global GDP and Commercial Trucks—Growth Outlook 2019 (continued)

Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast—Overview

TCO Comparison for Breakeven of Electrification

CES 2019—Truckers at a Consumer Technology Platform

Top 6 Predictions of 2019

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Key Questions this Study will Answer

Research Background

Research Methodology

Key OEMs Compared in this Study

Top 2018 Global Economic Trends

Top 2019 Global Economic Predictions

Top 2019 Global Economic Predictions (continued)

Top 2019 Predictions—Advanced Economies

Top 2019 Predictions—Emerging Economies

World GDP Growth Snapshot

World’s 20 Fastest Growing Economies in 2018 and 2019

Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast—By Weight Segment

2018 MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance

2019 Powertrain Technology Forecast

Alternative Fuel Powertrain Market—Regional Market Share Analysis

Key 2019 Market Introductions—Thrust on Alternative Powertrains

Connected Trucks—Key Features

Identifying Key Industry Pain Points—How Telematics Can Help

Global Installed Base of Connected Trucks by Region—A Snapshot

Regional MD-HD Truck Telematics Penetration

Global MD-HD OEMs’ Connected Truck Solutions—A Snapshot

OEM Solutions and Dedicated Providers—Synergy Developments

OEM Solutions and Dedicated Providers—Synergy Developments (continued)

Tier 1 Suppliers’ Continued Run in the Connected Fleet Industry

Brokerage Market Size 2018–2019

2018—A Record Year for Digital Technologies

Global Landscape of Digital Freight Brokerage

Top 10 Global Automated On-demand Freight Brokerage Solutions

New Digital Brokerage Business Models

Unique Characteristics of the Freight Market

Challenges in Real-time

Case Studies

2018—Key Developments in the Electric Truck Market

Technology in Electric Trucks

Lithium-ion Batteries Continue to Make Promising Gains

Battery Production Capacity to 2025

Electric Truck Market—2025 Outlook of Key Regions

China—Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap

China—Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap (continued

North America—Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap

North America—Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap (continued)

Europe—Product Portfolio and Launch Roadmap

Global Regulations Outlook-GHG and Tailpipe Emissions

Vehicle Energy Consumption Calculation Tool (VECTO)

Diesel Engine Powertrain Trends for 2019 and Beyond

Diesel Engine Powertrain—Technology Penetration

Alternate Diesel Engine Architectures

Key OEM Powertrain Strategies

Autonomous Truck Market Value—2025, 2030 and 2035

Value Map by Ecosystem Segments

Autonomous Truck Driving Ecosystem

Autonomous On-highway Driving Roadmap

Legislative Initiatives for Key US State Testing of Automated CVs

EU Member States’ Initiatives for Testing of Automated CVs

Asia-Pacific and Oceania Initiatives for Testing of Automated Vehicles

Key Growth Opportunities in Chinese Truck Market

China Tailpipe Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Standards

China Commercial Vehicle Market—Powertrain Split

Alternate Powertrain Charging Stations in China Provinces

MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance

Truck Segment Analysis—Price Positioning of Commercial Trucks

Key Growth Opportunities in Indian Truck Market

Upcoming Truck Regulations in Indian CV Market

Future Industrial Corridors in Indian Market

Telematics in CVs

Industry Structure—Goods Carrier

MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance

Case Study—Tata Motors Growth in Market Share

Case Study— Man Truck and Bus (MTB) Exits India

Total Commercial Vehicles Market Sales Snapshot

Commercial Vehicles Market—Sales Breakdown by Region

Commercial Vehicles Fleet Type and Size

Emission Norms and Legislations

MD Segment—Key Best Selling Models

HD Segment—Key Best Selling Models

Total Commercial Vehicles Market Sales Snapshot

Commercial Vehicles Market—Sales Breakdown by States

Commercial Vehicles Fleet Type and Size

Emission Norms and Legislations

MD Truck Segment—Key Best Selling Models

HD Truck Segment—Key Best Selling Models

Growth Opportunity 1—M&A, JVs in Electric Ecosystem

Strategic Imperatives

Key Conclusions and 2019 Outlook

Legal Disclaimer

Table of Acronyms Used

Upcoming Topics in the Commercial Vehicles Research Program

Legacy Content in the Commercial Vehicles Research Program

Market Engineering Methodology

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Related Research
Global medium-duty (MD) and heavy-duty (HD) trucks sales grew 4.5% in 2018 from 2017 due to sustained growth in top truck markets of North America, China (Heavy duty truck sales stayed above 1 million mark), along with continual growth in India, Brazil, Russia and Indonesia. In 2019, growth in North America, South America, Russia, India, Indonesia is expected to continue to be positive, while China, although over the 1 million mark in 2019, will be a smaller market than in 2018. However, speedy implementation of "Blue Sky" regulations, announced in July 2018, resulting in the rapid phasing out of 1 Million China III compliant trucks in 2019 itself can boost medium-heavy duty (MD-HD) truck sales in 2019. Electric powertrain, autonomous driving, connected devices and digital services continued to receive great interest (and investor dollars) in 2018 and is expected to continue to rise into 2019. While electric powertrains are beginning to be adopted in niche applications like refuse trucks where their total-cost-of-ownership (TCO) is already lower than diesel powered counterparts, the TCO parity in other applications will take as much as 2025. Autonomous technology too while fast developing with technology giants like NVIDIA throwing their weight behind it combining with start-ups like tuSmiple, drive.ai and Embark, SAE Level4 autonomous is still a decade out. Telematics devices however are experiencing double digit growth year-after-year including in TRIAD markets as well as China. By end of 2019, Among digital services, alongside the continued growth of telematics devices and services, digital freight brokerage solutions also received a hug boost with nearly $2.346 Billion invested across North America, South America, Europe, China, India and Russia. Although battery electric powertrains receive great attention in trade shows and new channels,natural gas (NG) is a quietly growing alternative powertrain option especially in Europe and China where there is great
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Predecessor K275-01-00-00-00
Author Silpa Paul
Industries Automotive
WIP Number K353-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6