Global Medium/Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020

Global Medium/Heavy-duty Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook, 2020

A Global Recession, Induced by the COVID-19 Pandemic, is Expected to Reduce MD/HD Truck Sales by 28.5% Y-o-Y, with Moderate Recovery in the Latter Half of the Year

RELEASE DATE
09-Jun-2020
REGION
Global
Research Code: K48D-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02006-GL-MO_24465

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Description

In 2019, global heavy-duty truck sales grew strongly in North America and South America and moderately in Europe and China, while declining in India. Currently, the COVID-19 pandemic is causing a wide-scale global supply chain disruption in all industries. The impact will be strongly felt across the US and European MD-HD markets, with a decline in freight demand due to lower industrial production and sharp economic contraction. China and India are expected to recover faster than developed nations on the backdrop of stricter measures and social distancing norms in place to mitigate the pandemic. However, strong stimulus packages with sector-specific incentives will help to reduce the economic impact of the COVID pandemic in different countries.

In the connected trucks market, telematics adoption will decrease, as OEMs’ sales decline and revenue growth stall in many countries at least until the second half of 2020. China will record single-digit growth rates for the first time owing to the COVID-19. The connected trucks section in this study highlights the key global regulations governing this space, installed base across trucks in different regions, regional telematics penetration, and top focus markets for key global telematics service providers.

Alternate powertrain technologies, including natural gas and electric, will be prioritized by major OEMs to mitigate the growing stringency of the upcoming greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations. However, low oil price and revenue impact due to the COVID pandemic will lead to fleets toward the diesel powertrain in the short term. The alternate powertrain section covers key OEM product platforms, use case analysis and market outlook for natural gas, electric trucks, and electric charging infrastructure.

On the autonomous front, Level 4 technology is still at a testing phase. As major OEMs compete to introduce driverless trucks in freight sections such as long haul and port, the market also has several start-ups showcasing their technology capabilities. Although the COVID-19 outbreak has halted many self-driving pilot programs and near-term investments of OEMs, in the long term, it will accelerate innovation in autonomous vehicles to compensate for labor shortages and for sanitizing streets. The autonomous section highlights the global legislative initiatives for the testing of autonomous commercial vehicles (CVs), use case analysis, OEM product platforms, and strategic partnerships among OEMs and suppliers for technology development.

The truck leasing market is witnessing the foray of major leasing companies into xEV leasing in partnership with traditional OEMs as well as new-age electric and fuel cell OEMs to gain an early-mover advantage in electric truck leasing space. With the implementation of IFRS 16, a new financial accounting standard from January 2019, multinational companies reporting under IFRS will account operational leases similar to financial leases. Leasing companies have started offering customers with extensive product portfolios through multiple touchpoints ranging from on-demand truck care to full supply chain services.

Additionally, the study includes sales forecasts for 2020 and trends into 2025 across North America, South America, Europe, China, India, Russia, Next 11, and Rest of the World.

Author: Saideep Sudhakar

RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC

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Table of Contents

Key Highlights—2019

Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast—Overview

CES Highlights from Truck OEMs

Top 6 Predictions for 2020

Research Scope

Research Aims and Objectives

Key Questions this Study will Answer

Research Background

Research Methodology

Key OEMs Compared in this Study

COVID-19 Global Economic Impact—Visioning Scenarios

Global Economic Outlook 2020—Top 5 Predictions

Global Economic Outlook 2020—Top 5 Predictions (continued)

2020 World GDP Growth Snapshot

Major Economies—Key Predictions for 2020

Global MD and HD Trucks Market Forecast by Region

2019 MD-HD Trucks OEM Sales Performance

2020 Powertrain Technology Forecast

Alternative Fuel Powertrain Market—Regional Market Share Analysis

COVID-19 Impact on MD-HD Sales in US, China, India, and Brazil

COVID-19 Impact on MD-HD Sales in EU Countries

COVID Impact—EU

COVID Impact—US, China, and UK

COVID Impact—India and Brazil

Key Trends in the CV Telematics Market

Global Regulation and Mandates Influencing CV Telematics

Global Installed Base of Connected Trucks by Region—A Snapshot

Regional MD-HD Telematics Penetration

Regional Connected Truck Telematics Market—Service Revenue Analysis

Top Global TSPs—Focus Markets

Key Trends—Electric Trucks Market

Global Incentives for EV Purchase

Use Case Analysis for Electric Trucks

Electric Truck Outlook of Key Regions

OEM Product Platforms—Powertrain Flexibility Comparison

DC Charger Types and Standards

Factors Driving EV Infrastructure Development

Global Electric Charging Infrastructure Incentives

Key Participants in the EV Charging Infrastructure Value Chain

Use Case Analysis for Charging Types

Charging Equipment Market Demand—2025 Outlook of Key Regions

Charging Ecosystem—Value Mapping

Key Trends in the Natural Gas Trucks Market

Global Natural Gas Incentives Landscape

Use Case Analysis—Natural Gas Truck

Natural Gas Truck Market—2025 Outlook of Key Regions

OEM Product PlatformsPowertrain Flexibility Comparison

Key Trends in the Diesel Powertrain Market

Global Tractor Truck Standards for CO2 Reduction

Regional Market Differentiation

GHG and Fuel Efficiency—Technology Penetration

Key OEM Fuel Efficiency Strategies

Implementation Roadmap for Autonomous rucks by Use ase

Global Legislative Initiatives for Testing of Autonomous CVs

Logistics

Autonomous L1 and L2 Vehicles Forecast—North America and Europe, 2025

Strategic Partnerships in the Industry

Product Pipeline of Major OEMs—ADAS and Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous Companies to Look out for—A Frost & Sullivan Perspective

Truck Funding and Mobility Solutions

Key Trends in Leasing Market

IFRS 16—New Financial Accounting Standard

MD, HD and Trailer Fleet Leasing Outlook

Leasing Providers Foray in xEV Leasing

Product Offerings—Leasing and Rental Companies

Growth Opportunity Regulations and New Revenue Opportunities

Strategic Imperatives

Key Conclusions and 2020 Outlook

Legal Disclaimer

Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used

Partial List of Abbreviations/Expansions Used (continued)

Market Engineering Methodology

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Related Research
In 2019, global heavy-duty truck sales grew strongly in North America and South America and moderately in Europe and China, while declining in India. Currently, the COVID-19 pandemic is causing a wide-scale global supply chain disruption in all industries. The impact will be strongly felt across the US and European MD-HD markets, with a decline in freight demand due to lower industrial production and sharp economic contraction. China and India are expected to recover faster than developed nations on the backdrop of stricter measures and social distancing norms in place to mitigate the pandemic. However, strong stimulus packages with sector-specific incentives will help to reduce the economic impact of the COVID pandemic in different countries. In the connected trucks market, telematics adoption will decrease, as OEMs’ sales decline and revenue growth stall in many countries at least until the second half of 2020. China will record single-digit growth rates for the first time owing to the COVID-19. The connected trucks section in this study highlights the key global regulations governing this space, installed base across trucks in different regions, regional telematics penetration, and top focus markets for key global telematics service providers. Alternate powertrain technologies, including natural gas and electric, will be prioritized by major OEMs to mitigate the growing stringency of the upcoming greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations. However, low oil price and revenue impact due to the COVID pandemic will lead to fleets toward the diesel powertrain in the short term. The alternate powertrain section covers key OEM product platforms, use case analysis and market outlook for natural gas, electric trucks, and electric charging infrastructure. On the autonomous front, Level 4 technology is still at a testing phase. As major OEMs compete to introduce driverless trucks in freight sections such as long haul and port, the market also has several start-ups showcasing their technology capabilities. Although the COVID-19 outbreak has halted many self-driving pilot programs and near-term investments of OEMs, in the long term, it will accelerate innovation in autonomous vehicles to compensate for labor shortages and for sanitizing streets. The autonomous section highlights the global legislative initiatives for the testing of autonomous commercial vehicles (CVs), use case analysis, OEM product platforms, and strategic partnerships among OEMs and suppliers for technology development. The truck leasing market is witnessing the foray of major leasing companies into xEV leasing in partnership with traditional OEMs as well as new-age electric and fuel cell OEMs to gain an early-mover advantage in electric truck leasing space. With the implementation of IFRS 16, a new financial accounting standard from January 2019, multinational companies reporting under IFRS will account operational leases similar to financial leases. Leasing companies have started offering customers with extensive product portfolios through multiple touchpoints ranging from on-demand truck care to full supply chain services. Additionally, the study includes sales forecasts for 2020 and trends into 2025 across North America, South America, Europe, China, India, Russia, Next 11, and Rest of the World. Author: Saideep Sudhakar
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Saideep Sudhakar
Industries Automotive
WIP Number K48D-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9800-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9AF6-A6