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Growth Opportunities in Distributed Energy, Forecast to 2030
Growth Opportunities in Distributed Energy, Forecast to 2030
Nearly $1 Trillion is Expected to be Invested Over the Course of the Decade as the Power Sector Continues to Transition to a More Decarbonised and Flexible System
05-May-2020
Global
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Description
Investments into distributed energy resources (DER) technologies reached $53.14 billion in 2019. Total capacity commissioned was 51.04 GW, meaning the total global installed capacity for DER increased by 10% in the year to 528.93 GW. Strong growth is expected for the global market across the decade as a whole. About $846.12 billion is forecast to be invested in new DER capacity over the next decade (2020–2030). The investment will be driven by a combination of favourable regulations, declining project and technology costs, high electricity and demand charges, availability of funding, and new financing models that offset initial investment barriers. Solar PV will dominate global investment throughout the decade, accounting for 88.2% of the funding. Of this, residential solar PV will account for 49.3% of the total investments, and commercial and industrial (C&I) solar PV the remaining 38.9%. By the end of the next decade, Asia will account for approximately 48% of the total investment, followed by North America (approximately 17.5% share) and Europe (approximately 16%). Total distributed generation (DG) installed capacity is projected to reach 1182.00 GW by 2030, accounting for 10% of the global installed power generation in the year.
The DER model will play an increasingly pivotal role in the global power mix, as part of a wider drive to decarbonise the sector. Frost & Sullivan firmly believes that participants in the power generation market must consider the impact of DER and should adapt accordingly.
Behind-the-meter energy storage is set to become a game changer for DER as it enhances its value proposition and enables revenue stacking. The cost of the energy storage system is forecast to decline by 35% over the course of the decade, making it an increasingly attractive proposition. New solar PV customers will opt for a solar + storage system as standard and existing customers will increasingly look to add a storage system to their existing solar PV DER units.
Prosumers will continue to invest in DER projects to mitigate energy cost uncertainty, and avoid increases in demand charges. They will also increasingly benefit from selling electricity back to the grid and from participating in the wholesale electricity, capacity and ancillary service markets.
The transition from a pure pay-and-purchase model to operation and output based OPEX contracts that include maintenance, performance guarantees, and availability of the installed equipment will increasingly be preferred by residential and C&I consumers.
Security of supply will become a key factor for investing in DERs, as major climate incidents increase. DERs that can operate in microgrid mode will bring increased resiliency to local grids.
Author: Maria Benintende
RESEARCH: INFOGRAPHIC
This infographic presents a brief overview of the research, and highlights the key topics discussed in it.Click image to view it in full size
Table of Contents
Key Findings
Top Predictions for the Decade Ahead
Impact of COVID-19
DER and its Role in the Internet of Energy
Key Growth Opportunities for Market Participants
Key Regional Growth Opportunities
Global Distributed Energy—Annual Capacity Installation Forecast
Global Distributed Energy—Annual Investment Forecast
Global Distributed Energy Forecast
Research Scope
Market Definitions
Geographic Segmentation
Key DER Market Trends
Storage as a Key Enabler for Renewable DERs
DER Aggregation—New Revenue Streams from the Provision of Grid Services
Blockchain will Bring Flexibility to DER Transactions
XaaS is Shaping and Driving the Deployment of DERs
Growth in Microgrids
Energy Supply and Demand Services
Market Drivers
Drivers Explained
Drivers Explained (continued)
Market Restraints
Restraints Explained
Restraints Explained (continued)
Technology Analysis—Overview
Technology Analysis—Distributed Solar PV
Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Distributed Solar PV Investment Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Technology Analysis—Diesel Gensets
Diesel Gensets Installed Capacity Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Diesel Gensets Investment Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Technology Analysis—Gas Gensets
Gas Gensets Installed Capacity Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Gas Gensets Investment Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Technology Analysis—Industrial Turbines (<30MW)
Industrial Turbines Installed Capacity Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Industrial Turbines Investment Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Technology Analysis—Distributed Wind
Distributed Wind Installed Capacity Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Distributed Wind Investment Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Technology Analysis—Small Hydro Power
Small Hydro Installed Capacity Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Small Hydro Investment Forecast—The Decade Ahead
Regional Analysis—DER Investment Growth
North America—Regional Overview
North America—Capex by Technology
North America—Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
North America—Country Highlights
Europe—Regional Overview
Europe—Capex by Technology
Europe—Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
Europe—Country Highlights
Asia—Regional Overview
Asia—Capex by Technology
Asia—Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
Asia—Country Highlights
Latin America—Regional Overview
Latin America—Capex by Technology
Latin America—Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
Latin America—Country Highlights
Africa and Middle East—Regional Overview
Africa and Middle East—Capex by Technology
Africa and Middle East—Annual Capacity Additions by Technology
Africa and Middle East—Country Highlights
DER Market Ecosystem
DER Market Participants and Strategic Focus—Traditional Energy Participants
DER Market Participants and Strategic Focus—Newer Participants
Key Growth Opportunities for Market Participants
Growth Opportunity 1—Risk-Gain Share Models and M&A: New Opportunities for Technology OEMs
Companies to Action—Case Study
Companies to Action—Case Study (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—Expanding Current Solution Offering: New Opportunities for System Integrators & Installers
Companies to Action—Case Study
Companies to Action—Case Study (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3—Consumer to Prosumer: New Opportunities for End Users
Companies to Action—Case Study
Growth Opportunity 4—Market Entry to DER: New Opportunities for Utilities
Companies to Action—Case Study
Growth Opportunity 5—Expanding Solution Offering: New Opportunities for ESCOs
Companies to Action—Case Study
Strategic Imperatives for Distributed Energy
Key Conclusions
Legal Disclaimer
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
The Frost & Sullivan Story
Value Proposition—Future of Your Company & Career
Global Perspective
Industry Convergence
360º Research Perspective
Implementation Excellence
Our Blue Ocean Strategy
Popular Topics
| No Index | No |
|---|---|
| Podcast | No |
| Author | Maria Benintende |
| Industries | Energy |
| WIP Number | MF1A-01-00-00-00 |
| Is Prebook | No |
| GPS Codes | 9AFF-A4,9B00-A4,9851 |
