Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Global Power & Energy Industry

Impact Of The Russo-Ukrainian War On The North America Power & Energy Industry – Growth Opportunities, Analysis, Forecast, Global, 2022

Disruptive Technology And Strategic Partnering That Determine Competitiveness,Global Energy Market,Power And Energy Industry,Energy Industry

RELEASE DATE
05-Dec-2022
REGION
Global
Research Code: MG7F-01-00-00-00
SKU: EG02289-GL-MR_27193
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Description

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused significant disruption to global energy markets. Europe has felt the biggest impact as a significant buyer of oil, and particularly gas, from Russia. In fact, Russia accounted for 35.5% of Europe’s gas supply in 2021. As the volume of gas coming from Russia has fallen, Europe has been scrambling to secure supplies on the wider global market. This has boosted the fortunes of liquid natural gas (LNG) suppliers such as Australia, Qatar, and the United States, all of whom have seen revenues increase substantially, which has boosted the business case for further investment in liquefaction terminals in these countries to increase exports. In Europe, countries have boosted investment in LNG regasification terminals, with demand for floating terminals, which can be brought online very fast.

Even before the invasion, investment in renewable energy was forecast to be high, but the invasion has led a number of countries to increase their spending. In fact, the European Union has mandated the acceleration of renewable energy. China and India have both increased their renewable investment programs. Southeast Asian countries that had plans to make gas a significant part of their energy mix are now reconsidering this strategy and focusing more on renewable energy. In the United States, passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which is essentially a support package for renewable energy, will lead to significantly higher investment (this could well have occurred even if the invasion had not happened). These increases in renewable investment will also boost investment in grid technologies such as transformers, switchgear, and technologies that facilitate renewable energy coming online.

Nuclear is another low-carbon power source that has also seen accelerated investment activity since the invasion. A number of European countries that were going to close plants in the coming years have either decided to extend the lifetime of plants or will likely do so in 2023. In Eastern Europe countries such as Poland, whose plans for nuclear plants were slowly progressing for some years, have now accelerated them, with contracts being awarded. In the longer term, coal must decline because of its emission levels, and incentive programs are increasingly offered to less developed economies to enable earlier closures. However, the invasion is likely to see more coal plants remain online for longer, as countries are concerned about supply security.

This study focuses on the main implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War in core global regions for the most important sectors within the energy industry, including oil and gas, coal, nuclear, renewable energy, digital grids, and energy storage. The forecast period is 2023–2030 using a base year of 2022.

Author: Jonathan Robinson

Table of Contents

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Global Power & Energy Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Main Findings

Main Findings (continued)

Implications for the Oil and Gas Industry

Implications for the Power Industry

Implications for Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Customers

Scope of Analysis

Europe’s Energy Crisis: a Significant Gas Supply Deficit

Europe’s Energy Crisis: High Historical Dependence on Russia

Europe’s Energy Crisis: LNG Largely Under-utilized Pre-War

Europe’s Energy Crisis: Soaring Electricity Prices

Growth Drivers

Growth Restraints

Eight Implications of the Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the Global Power & Energy Industry

1. Reduction in Energy Demand

2. Rebalancing the Global Supply: European Domination of the Short-term LNG Market

2. Rebalancing Global Supply: Strong Investment Growth and Acceleration

3. Increased Gas Storage: the Result of Aggressive European Action

4. Acceleration of Renewables: Global Forecast Increases

4. Acceleration of Renewables: the Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact

4. Acceleration of Renewables: Sharp European Forecast Increases

4. Acceleration of Renewables: Can Europe Solve its Permit Challenge?

5. Short-term Lifeline for Coal Power: Decommissioning Delays in 2022–23

5. Short-term Lifeline for Coal Power: Western Europe Keeping Plants Online

5. Short-term Lifeline for Coal Power: Eastern Europe Remains Committed to Coal

6. Nuclear Re-think: Supply Security Paramount

6. Nuclear Re-think: Status in Europe

6. Nuclear Re-think: Status in Europe (continued)

7. Importance of Grid Resiliency and Intelligence: Decentralized Solar Growth

7. Importance of Grid Resiliency and Intelligence: Double-digit Growth for Digital Grid Solutions

7. Importance of Grid Resiliency and Intelligence: Soaring Battery Energy Storage Capacity

8. Increasing Focus on Cybersecurity

8. Increasing Focus on Cybersecurity (continued)

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on Energy in Europe

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on North America

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on Latin America

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on the Middle East

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on China

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on India and the Rest of South Asia

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on APAC

The Russo-Ukrainian War’s Impact on Africa

Growth Opportunity 1: Expanding Current Solution Offerings: New Opportunities for System Integrators and Installers

Growth Opportunity 1: Expanding Current Solution Offerings: New Opportunities for System Integrators and Installers (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Consumer to Prosumer: New Opportunities for End Users

Growth Opportunity 2: Consumer to Prosumer: New Opportunities for End Users (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Distributed Cybersecurity for Grid Reliability 

Growth Opportunity 3: Distributed Cybersecurity for Grid Reliability (continued) 

List of Exhibits

Legal Disclaimer

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused significant disruption to global energy markets. Europe has felt the biggest impact as a significant buyer of oil, and particularly gas, from Russia. In fact, Russia accounted for 35.5% of Europe’s gas supply in 2021. As the volume of gas coming from Russia has fallen, Europe has been scrambling to secure supplies on the wider global market. This has boosted the fortunes of liquid natural gas (LNG) suppliers such as Australia, Qatar, and the United States, all of whom have seen revenues increase substantially, which has boosted the business case for further investment in liquefaction terminals in these countries to increase exports. In Europe, countries have boosted investment in LNG regasification terminals, with demand for floating terminals, which can be brought online very fast. Even before the invasion, investment in renewable energy was forecast to be high, but the invasion has led a number of countries to increase their spending. In fact, the European Union has mandated the acceleration of renewable energy. China and India have both increased their renewable investment programs. Southeast Asian countries that had plans to make gas a significant part of their energy mix are now reconsidering this strategy and focusing more on renewable energy. In the United States, passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which is essentially a support package for renewable energy, will lead to significantly higher investment (this could well have occurred even if the invasion had not happened). These increases in renewable investment will also boost investment in grid technologies such as transformers, switchgear, and technologies that facilitate renewable energy coming online. Nuclear is another low-carbon power source that has also seen accelerated investment activity since the invasion. A number of European countries that were going to close plants in the coming years have either decided to extend the lifetime of plants or will likely do so in 2023. In Eastern Europe countries such as Poland, whose plans for nuclear plants were slowly progressing for some years, have now accelerated them, with contracts being awarded. In the longer term, coal must decline because of its emission levels, and incentive programs are increasingly offered to less developed economies to enable earlier closures. However, the invasion is likely to see more coal plants remain online for longer, as countries are concerned about supply security. This study focuses on the main implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War in core global regions for the most important sectors within the energy industry, including oil and gas, coal, nuclear, renewable energy, digital grids, and energy storage. The forecast period is 2023–2030 using a base year of 2022. Author: Jonathan Robinson
More Information
New Title Impact Of The Russo-Ukrainian War On The North America Power & Energy Industry – Growth Opportunities, Analysis, Forecast, Global, 2022
New Subtitle Disruptive Technology And Strategic Partnering That Determine Competitiveness,Global Energy Market,Power And Energy Industry,Energy Industry
Author Jonathan Robinson
Industries Energy
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Keyword 1 global energy market
Keyword 2 power and energy industry
Keyword 3 energy industry
Podcast No
WIP Number MG7F-01-00-00-00