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The Electrification and Decarbonization of Residential Heating are Driving Transformational Growth
09-Sep-2026
Global
Market Research
PLM4-01-00-00-00
EG_2026_34873
The global residential heat pump (HP) market is forecast to reach 21.2 million units by 2035, up from 11.4 million in 2025. Market definitions are important to the market forecast, and Frost & Sullivan excludes the sale of HPs for air conditioning. Market revenues are forecast to reach $113.79 billion by 2035, up from $43.86 billion in 2025. In 2025, APAC was the largest region in terms of sales, and this is forecast to continue to be the case by 2025, although Europe and North America will have higher growth rates. HPs offer several advantages, including higher efficiency and the acceleration of heat decarbonization, as renewable electricity powers them. However, challenges include market- and site-dependent suitability and factors such as the age of households and insulation that require evaluation. Installation costs, especially for existing properties, are significant, and HPs have higher capital costs than gas boilers. Additionally, wider investment is necessary to ensure that HPs do not strain local electricity grids. Skilled installers and consultants are lacking in some markets, and the public is hesitant because of their familiarity with boiler technology.
Author: Neha Tatikota
Scope of Analysis
Market Overview and Definitions
Segmentation: Heat Pumps by Technology
Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Residential Heat Pump (HP) Industry
Key Insights
Growth Metrics
Distribution Channels
Competitive Environment
Key Competitors
Heat-as-a-Service
Fossil-Fuel Bans Across Europe
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in New Buildings
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in Renovated Buildings
Growth Restraints
Forecast Considerations
The European Race for Heat Pumps
Heat Pumps Installed Base—Europe
Residential HP Revenue & Unit Shipment Forecast
Residential HP Unit Shipment Forecast by Technology
Residential HP Revenue Forecast by Technology
ASHP (ATA) Application Unit Shipment and Revenue Forecast
ASHP (ATW) Application Unit Shipment and Revenue Forecast
Residential HP Unit Shipment Forecast by Region
Residential HP Revenue Forecast by Region
Revenue and Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis by Region
Residential HP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
ASHP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
ASHP (Air-to-Air) Application Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
ASHP (Air-to-Water) Application Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
GSHP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
Residential HP Revenue Forecast by Country
ASHP Revenue Forecast by Country
ASHP (Air-to-Air) Application Revenue Forecast by Country
ASHP (Air-to-Water) Application Revenue Forecast by Country
GSHP Revenue Forecast by Country
Residential HP Market—France
Residential HP Market—United Kingdom
Residential HP Market—Germany
Residential HP Market—Italy
Residential HP Market—Sweden
Residential HP Market—Denmark
Residential HP Market—Finland
Residential HP Market—Spain
Residential HP Market—Netherlands
Residential HP Market—Belgium
Residential HP Market—Norway
Residential HP Market—Poland
Residential HP Market—United States
Revenue Share
Revenue Share Analysis
Growth Opportunity 1: Life Cycle Heating Solutions (Heat-as-a-Service & Recurring Services)
Growth Opportunity 2: Residential Energy Ecosystem Integration
Growth Opportunity 3: Intelligent & Grid-Interactive Heat Pumps
Growth Opportunity 4: Next-Generation Residential Heat Pumps
Growth Opportunity 5: Residential Retrofit & Electrification
Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
Next Steps
Legal Disclaimer
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Author: Neha Tatikota
| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
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| Predecessor | PFK6-01-00-00-00 |
| WIP Number | PLM4-01-00-00-00 |
Residential Heat Pumps Industry, Global, 2025–2035
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