India’s Economic and Social Transformation

India’s Economic and Social Transformation

Future Growth Potential Driven by Robust Medium-term GDP and Expansive Working-age and Middle-class Populations

RELEASE DATE
08-Jan-2021
REGION
South Asia, Middle East & North Africa
Research Code: 9AE5-00-33-00-00
SKU: CI00734-SA-MT_25145
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Description

India is among the fastest-growing major economies, advantaged by an expanding middle class and working-age population. While signs of a slowdown were evident in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has catapulted the economy into a deep recession, similar to the global trend. This research examines the country’s outlook for the next decade and evaluates its socio-economic growth trajectory and transformation.

Looking more closely at the impact of COVID-19 and future outlook, full gross domestic product (GDP) recovery is expected by the early part of fiscal year 2022–2023. Potential unravelling caused by a second wave of the pandemic would likely delay full recovery by a quarter or two. Thereafter, about 6% growth levels are expected. Concerted structural reforms, if implemented, should help put India on a higher growth trajectory during the forecast period of 2020–2030.

In terms of city-based trends, with metros facing saturated markets and resource pressure, the next wave of growth will arise from tier II cities. Several of these cities are expected to outpace Indian metros in regards to economic growth during the next decade. In this scenario, businesses should look to cater to higher middle-class demand, with the number of Indian middle-class households expected to grow from 293 million in 2018 to 386 million by 2030.

On the demographic front, India is enjoying the benefits of a growing working-age population and size, a trend expected to continue for the next decade, in contrast to a declining trend in China. Overall, population density across India is expected to increase. Mumbai, in particular, stands out, ranked as the second-most densely populated city on a global level according to 2017 data.

Healthcare trends reveal a growing incidence of non-communicable diseases amongst the Indian population. While health insurance coverage in the country has typically been low, it appears to have improved following national rollout of the government's Ayushman Bharat scheme back in 2018. Potential expansion of the scheme among the non-poor would help lift health insurance coverage rates.

This research also explores growth opportunities tied to economic and social transformation expected during the next decade, including factors such as manufacturing prospects and population characteristics.

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the 2025–2026 GDP growth outlook for India?
  • What are some of India’s key macroeconomic growth opportunities for the next decade?
  • What are the expectations for Indian middle-class growth?
  • How will global events and trends such as the US elections and supply chain diversification impact India?
  • How will India’s population structure evolve up to 2030?
  • What does India’s communicable and non-communicable disease profile look like?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

Table of Contents

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Economic and Social Environment in India

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

India Economic and Social Environment—An Overview

Key Growth Metrics for the Economic and Social Environment in India

Socio-Economic Growth Drivers in India

Socio-Economic Growth Restraints in India

GDP Growth

GDP by City

Middle-class Growth

COVID-19 Impact on Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Fiscal Analysis

Trade Analysis

Trade Analysis (continued)

Impact of Global Economic Trends and Events

Positioning on Global Performance Indices

Population Structure

Population Size and Density

Generational Population Sizing

Disease Profile—Communicable Diseases

Disease Profile—Non-Communicable Diseases

Health Insurance and Out-of-Pocket Expenditures

Health Insurance—Analysis by State and Insurance Type

Growth Opportunity 1: Domestic Production Opportunities Amidst Diversification Away from China

Growth Opportunity 1: Domestic Production Opportunities Amidst Diversification Away from China (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Release of Pent-up Consumer Demand

Growth Opportunity 2: Release of Pent-up Consumer Demand (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Robust Demand in Goods and Services from Tier II Cities

Growth Opportunity 3: Robust Demand in Goods and Services from Tier II Cities (continued)

Growth Opportunity 4: Ageing Population and Demand-supply Gap

Growth Opportunity 4: Ageing Population and Demand-supply Gap (continued)

Growth Opportunity 5: Working-age and Middle-class Boom and Associated Demand Growth

Growth Opportunity 5: Working-age and Middle-class Boom and Associated Demand Growth (continued)

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

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India is among the fastest-growing major economies, advantaged by an expanding middle class and working-age population. While signs of a slowdown were evident in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic has catapulted the economy into a deep recession, similar to the global trend. This research examines the countrys outlook for the next decade and evaluates its socio-economic growth trajectory and transformation. Looking more closely at the impact of COVID-19 and future outlook, full gross domestic product (GDP) recovery is expected by the early part of fiscal year 2022–2023. Potential unravelling caused by a second wave of the pandemic would likely delay full recovery by a quarter or two. Thereafter, about 6% growth levels are expected. Concerted structural reforms, if implemented, should help put India on a higher growth trajectory during the forecast period of 2020–2030. In terms of city-based trends, with metros facing saturated markets and resource pressure, the next wave of growth will arise from tier II cities. Several of these cities are expected to outpace Indian metros in regards to economic growth during the next decade. In this scenario, businesses should look to cater to higher middle-class demand, with the number of Indian middle-class households expected to grow from 293 million in 2018 to 386 million by 2030. On the demographic front, India is enjoying the benefits of a growing working-age population and size, a trend expected to continue for the next decade, in contrast to a declining trend in China. Overall, population density across India is expected to increase. Mumbai, in particular, stands out, ranked as the second-most densely populated city on a global level according to 2017 data. Healthcare trends reveal a growing incidence of non-communicable diseases amongst the Indian population. While health insurance coverage in the country has typically been low, it appears to have improved following national rollout of the government's Ayushman Bharat scheme back in 2018. Potential expansion of the scheme among the non-poor would help lift health insurance coverage rates. This research also explores growth opportunities tied to economic and social transformation expected during the next decade, including factors such as manufacturing prospects and population characteristics.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • What is the 2025–2026 GDP growth outlook for India?
  • What are some of India’s key macroeconomic growth opportunities for the next decade?
  • What are the expectations for Indian middle-class growth?
  • How will global events and trends such as the US elections and supply chain diversification impact India?
  • How will India’s population structure evolve up to 2030?
  • What does India’s communicable and non-communicable disease profile look like?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

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Author Neha Anna Thomas
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number 9AE5-00-33-00-00
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GPS Codes 9A6B