Kenyan Logistics Market, Forecast to 2020

Supported by Its Political Commitment, Young Population and Infrastructure Developments, Kenya is a Rising Star in East Africa

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Kenya displays significant potential for economic growth due to its strategic location in East Africa. Even though Kenya’s growth has been slower than that of the African region, its Vision 2030 strategy is expected to enable its growth to World Bank’s second rung of countries with highest gross national income. Two out of three Kenyans are estimated to have access to the Internet, which is higher than the African regional average of 18%, making ICT one of the rising sectors in the country. Opportunities to grow exist in the services sector. Its business, telecommunication, tourism and finance sectors have prospered over the last year. The increase in private consumption will enable the services sector to contribute more to the GDP in the future. Infrastructural developments in the transport and energy sectors, favorable business climate and growth of renewable energy sector are expected to spur GDP growth in the long term. While imports have been steady, the trade deficit has been affected by imports from East Asia into the East African market. The trade deficit is expected to continue despite expected growth through exploration of oil reserves and completion of infrastructural projects. While refined petroleum is a major source of energy in the country, Kenya’s recent discovery of oil in the Turkana region is expected to reduce its dependence on imported petroleum products and narrow the country’s trade deficit in the long term. Continual increase in private consumption and public infrastructural investments have aided in spurring economic growth in the country, exceeding the average among sub-Saharan African region over the previous eight years. In addition to making it an ideal investment destination, mega infrastructure projects planned for the future are expected to boost economic growth and position the country as a major economic hub in the Eastern African region in the medium term. While FDI decreased in 2016, the country has recorded the fastest increase in FDI across diverse domains such as real estate, renewable and geothermal energy, rail and roadways. Kenya’s improved ranking of 92 in Ease of Doing Business for 2017 is expected to help it attract more foreign investment, aided by its strong links through various trade agreements with countries in Europe, the Caribbean Basin, APAC, as well as other third-world countries. The country’s strategic location in East Africa, proposed infrastructure developments, move towards renewable energy, increase in private consumption and growth of eCommerce will propel Kenya in its economic growth and establish it as one of the key countries in the region.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Key Findings
GDP Forecast
Exports and Imports Forecast
Kenya—Technological Indicators
Logistics Performance Index and Ease of Doing Business
Growth Opportunity—Current Offerings, Value-add Services and Portfolio Expansion
2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
Research Scope, Aims and Objectives
3. Economic Trends and Indicators
GDP Per Capita and GDP Growth
GDP by Activity Growth Rate (2010 to 2016)
GDP by Sector
GDP Forecast
4. International Trade Performance
Contribution of Export-Import to GDP
Exports and Imports Forecast
Top Ten Export/Import Partners by Value
Key Trade Commodities
5. Social and Technological Indicators
Population Growth and Structure
Technological Indicators
Social Indicators
6. Transportation and Logistics Sector Overview
Key Developments in Transportation and Their Implications
Transportation and Storage Value of Output
Kenya—New Infrastructure Developments
Transportation Infrastructure
Business Environment and Investment Attractiveness
Key Trade Agreements
Kenya and EAC
Ease of Doing Business in 2017—Sub-Parameters
7. Growth Opportunities and Companies to Action
Growth Opportunity—Current Offerings, Value-add Services and Portfolio Expansion
Strategic Imperatives for Success and Growth
8. Conclusions and Future Outlook
Conclusions
Legal Disclaimer
9. The Frost & Sullivan Story

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List of Figures & Charts

1. Logistics Market: Key Findings, Kenya, 2010–2020
2. Segment-wise Breakup of Industry Sector, Kenya, 2016
3. Segment-wise Breakup of Services Sector, Kenya, 2016
4. Export/Import Partners by Value, Kenya, 2016
5. Logistics Market: Transportation and Storage Value of Output, Kenya, 2010–2016
6. Logistics Market: New Infrastructure Developments, Kenya, 2016 and 2017
7. Key Trade Agreements, Kenya, 1964–2016
8. Ease of Doing Business, Kenya, 2017


1. GDP Forecast, Kenya, 2010–2020
2. Export/Import Forecast, Kenya, 2010–2020
3. Technological Indicators, Kenya, 2010–2016
4. Smart Phone Penetration, Kenya, 2015–2016
5. Logistics Market: Logistics Performance Index Score, Kenya, 2014 vs 2016
6. Logistics Market: Ease of Doing Business, Kenya, 2017
7. GDP Per Capita, Kenya, 2010–2016
8. GDP by Activity Growth Rate, Kenya, 2010–2016
9. GDP by Sector, Kenya, 2016
10. GDP Forecast, Kenya, 2010–2020
11. Logistics Market: Export/Import Share in GDP, Kenya, 2010–2016
12. Export/Import Forecast, Kenya, 2010–2020
13. Key Trade Commodities, Kenya, 2016
14. Population Growth and Structure, Kenya, 2010–2016
15. Population Break up in Percentage, Kenya, 2016
16. Gender Break up in Percentage, Kenya, 2016
17. Technological Indicators, Kenya, 2010–2016
18. Smart Phone Penetration, Kenya, 2015–2016
19. Social Indicators, Kenya, 2010, 2015, and 2016
20. Logistics Market: Transportation Infrastructure, Kenya, 2016
21. FDI Inflows, and Domestic Credit as Percent of GDP, Kenya, 2010–2016
22. Ease of Doing Business Study, Kenya, 2017
23. East African Community, Kenya, 2016



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