Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in EU 27: Long Haul—Hub to Hub

Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in EU 27: Long Haul—Hub to Hub

Future TAAM Growth Potential of 1,167btkm with 206K Long-haul Driverless Trucks Operational on the European Ten-Ts by 2040

RELEASE DATE
11-Jul-2023
REGION
Europe
Research Code: PE81-01-00-00-00
SKU: TEMP_2023_18
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Description

Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operations could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but “by when?” and “starting where?” remain key questions.

In this study, the objective is to derive the total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption in the addressable market (SAAM). To achieve this, Frost & Sullivan has developed a detailed model built bottom-up and consisting of an overlay of the 1154 NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics, NUTS) regions and the 9 Ten-Ts (Trans European Transport Network) as the base upon which multiple autonomous factors are applied. Then each of these corridors were applied an autonomous score, based on which they were segregated into three different phases of implementation (Phase 1, 2023–2028; Phase 2, 2029–2034; Phase 3, 2035–2040). Then, the TAAM and SAAM derived (by phase) to understand the total market potential of L4 autonomous trucks in EU over the next two decades.

Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, ~30,600 kms of road length could be autonomous ready; this covers a total addressable autonomous freight market (TAAM) of ~1,167 billion ton-km and nearly 206k driverless long-haul trucks could be operational on European roads.

Author: Christus Divyan

Table of Contents

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Level 4 (L4) Autonomous Truck Market

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Levels of Vehicle Automation

Benefits of High-level Vehicle Automation

Different Territorial Avenues for Automation

Research Scope

Autonomous Technology Segmentation

The L4 Autonomous Industry in Europe, 2023

Growth Drivers

Growth Restraints

Growth Metrics

Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS)

Trans-European Transport Network (Ten-T)

L4 Autonomous Trucks: Forecast Logic

The Atlantic Corridor

The Baltic-Adriatic Corridor

The Mediterranean Corridor

The North Sea-Mediterranean Corridor

The North Sea- Baltic Corridor

The Orient-East Med Corridor

The Rhine-Danube Corridor

The Rhine-Alpine Corridor

The Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor

NUTS-3 Ten-T Overlay

Freight Intensity

Economic Activity

Safety

Weather

Truck OEM Base

Autonomous Score: The Atlantic Corridor

Autonomous Score: The Baltic-Adriatic Corridor

Autonomous Score: The Mediterranean Corridor

Autonomous Score: The North Sea-Mediterranean Corridor

Autonomous Score: The North Sea-Baltic Corridor

Autonomous Score: The Orient-East Med Corridor

Autonomous Score: The Rhine-Danube Corridor

Autonomous Score: The Rhine-Alpine Corridor

Autonomous Score: The Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor

Ten-T Corridors: Top Autonomous Scores

Phase 1: 2023–2028

Phase 1: 2023–2028 (continued)

Phase 2: 2029–2034

Phase 3: 2035–2040

Summary of Corridor Segregation by Phase

Total Autonomous Addressable Market (TAAM)

Share of Autonomous Adoption in Addressable Market (SAAM)

Level 4 Autonomous Long Trucks: Unit-in-Operation Forecast

Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity 1: Fleet Owner Partnership Pilots

Growth Opportunity 1: Fleet Owner Partnership Pilots (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Autonomous Freight

Growth Opportunity 2: Autonomous Freight (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Application and Operation Expansion

Growth Opportunity 3: Application and Operation Expansion (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

Legal Disclaimer

Autonomous trucks have long been considered the solution to overburdened road freight networks and inefficient logistics chains. At a time of acute driver shortages, autonomous trucks also promise safety, 24/7 operation, resource usage optimization, and uninterrupted commodity flow. With L4 automation capabilities, the overall cost of long and regional haul operations could drop significantly due to reduced driver costs, improved productivity, efficient energy management, and better safety. L4 autonomous trucks could provide operational benefits to fleet owners while helping drivers stay closer to their homes and improving the overall safety of vehicle, goods, and pedestrians. The L4 autonomous truck is sure to transform the trucking industry, but “by when?” and “starting where?” remain key questions. In this study, the objective is to derive the total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption in the addressable market (SAAM). To achieve this, Frost & Sullivan has developed a detailed model built bottom-up and consisting of an overlay of the 1154 NUTS 3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics, NUTS) regions and the 9 Ten-Ts (Trans European Transport Network) as the base upon which multiple autonomous factors are applied. Then each of these corridors were applied an autonomous score, based on which they were segregated into three different phases of implementation (Phase 1, 2023–2028; Phase 2, 2029–2034; Phase 3, 2035–2040). Then, the TAAM and SAAM derived (by phase) to understand the total market potential of L4 autonomous trucks in EU over the next two decades. Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, ~30,600 kms of road length could be autonomous ready; this covers a total addressable autonomous freight market (TAAM) of ~1,167 billion ton-km and nearly 206k driverless long-haul trucks could be operational on European roads. Author: Christus Divyan
More Information
Author Christus Divyan
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Keyword 1 Total Addressable Autonomous Freight Market
Keyword 2 Share Of Autonomous Adoption In The Addressable Market
Keyword 3 Trans European Transport Network
Podcast No
WIP Number PE81-01-00-00-00