Middle East and Africa (MEA) Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends, H2 2018

Middle East and Africa (MEA) Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends, H2 2018

Privatization Led Non-oil Sector Growth Drive Economic Growth in the Region

RELEASE DATE
07-Feb-2019
REGION
Africa
Research Code: 9A6E-00-14-00-00
SKU: CI00599-AF-DE_22847

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Description

Economies of the Middle Eastern countries will remain modest due to higher oil exporting revenue being moderately offset by recession in Iran. Higher oil prices are expected to drive oil and gas and hydrocarbon sector in the region, with Saudi Arabia leading the pack in 2019. OPEC oil production dipped in November 2018 due to fall in Iranian production. OPEC will slash output by 1.2 million bpd to tackle supply glut in 2019 and oil prices from plunging. This will affect the growth outlook of the oil exporting countries. Possibility of a supply gut in 2019 driven by low global oil demand and large increases in US shale oil production might potentially compel OPEC for another round of production cut. Robust private investment in non-oil sectors in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in areas of education and health is likely to continue to aid growth. In the aftermath of low oil price period, gulf countries are on a path of a revolutionary fiscal reform in the form of introduction of value added tax (VAT). Saudi and UAE already have implemented VAT and other gulf countries are to follow in 2019 and 2020. More than 10-fold rise in public spending is expected in Saudi and UAE to spur growth; however spending remains vulnerable to future oil price shocks. Higher interest rates in key countries are expected to boost banking growth, but weigh on non-oil sector activity. Sanctions against Iran were reinstated on metals, automotive, and aviation by the US government in August 2018 and on energy and finance followed in November 2018. Companies will stay cautious in doing a business with Iran with concerns surrounding breach of sanction. Iranian Rial will hover above 100,000 per dollar in 2019 due to deep recession and slow trade

Country Coverage – Middle East and Africa:
•     Saudi Arabia
•     United Arab Emirates
•     Egypt
•     Algeria
•     Nigeria
•     Qatar
•     Israel
•     Iran
•     South Africa

Sector Coverage:
Economic Indicators, Demographics, Energy, Manufacturing, Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals, Plastics, Mining, Electricity, Construction, Agriculture, Healthcare, Information and Communication Technologies.

Indicator Coverage:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components, GDP Growth, Export & Import, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, Business Confidence, Population & Demographics, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Value Add by Industry, Trade by Industry, IIP by Industry, Production of Important Commodities, Oil Production & Consumption, Oil Export & Import, Renewable Energy, Emissions, Coal Production & Consumption, Healthcare Spending, Internet and Mobile Subscription.
Regional GDP Growth calculation

Year, Quarter, and Month Coverage:
• Yearly Data: 2015–2022
• Quarterly Data: Q1 2015–Q3 2020
• Monthly Data: January 2015–December 2018

Table of Contents

Middle East and Africa (MEA) Economic Tracker—Insights and Trends, H2 2018

Related Research
Economies of the Middle Eastern countries will remain modest due to higher oil exporting revenue being moderately offset by recession in Iran. Higher oil prices are expected to drive oil and gas and hydrocarbon sector in the region, with Saudi Arabia leading the pack in 2019. OPEC oil production dipped in November 2018 due to fall in Iranian production. OPEC will slash output by 1.2 million bpd to tackle supply glut in 2019 and oil prices from plunging. This will affect the growth outlook of the oil exporting countries. Possibility of a supply gut in 2019 driven by low global oil demand and large increases in US shale oil production might potentially compel OPEC for another round of production cut. Robust private investment in non-oil sectors in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in areas of education and health is likely to continue to aid growth. In the aftermath of low oil price period, gulf countries are on a path of a revolutionary fiscal reform in the form of introduction of value added tax (VAT). Saudi and UAE already have implemented VAT and other gulf countries are to follow in 2019 and 2020. More than 10-fold rise in public spending is expected in Saudi and UAE to spur growth; however spending remains vulnerable to future oil price shocks. Higher interest rates in key countries are expected to boost banking growth, but weigh on non-oil sector activity. Sanctions against Iran were reinstated on metals, automotive, and aviation by the US government in August 2018 and on energy and finance followed in November 2018. Companies will stay cautious in doing a business with Iran with concerns surrounding breach of sanction. Iranian Rial will hover above 100,000 per dollar in 2019 due to deep recession and slow trade Country Coverage – Middle East and Africa: • Saudi Arabia • United Arab Emirates • Egypt • Algeria • Nigeria • Qatar • Israel • Iran • South Africa Sector Coverage: Economic Indicators, Demographics, Energy, Manufacturing, Food and Beverage
More Information
No Index No
Podcast No
Author Rituparna Majumder
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number 9A6E-00-14-00-00
Is Prebook No
GPS Codes 9A6E