Oil Price Sensitivity Analysis and Macroeconomic Opportunities

Oil Price Sensitivity Analysis and Macroeconomic Opportunities

Downward Oil Price Movements Bode Well for Food Products, Chemicals, and Pharmaceuticals Production

RELEASE DATE
03-Feb-2022
REGION
North America
Deliverable Type
Economic and Databases
Research Code: 9AE5-00-3A-00-00
SKU: CI00797-NA-MT_26228
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Description

International crude oil prices are sensitive to oil production policies, geopolitical issues, government regulations, and several other factors. For improved foresight and scenario-planning capabilities, this Frost & Sullivan research service encompasses an oil price forecast model until 2025. The model was developed through a comprehensive scenario-based analysis of demand- and supply-side factors influencing oil prices. Price forecasts until 2025 were generated under 3 scenarios—baseline, high, and low oil prices.

To establish the sensitivity of industry output to oil prices, a comprehensive correlation exercise was undertaken for multiple countries. Food products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, wholesale and retail trade, and finance and insurance demonstrated a strong negative correlation with oil prices. Qualitative findings further support the nature and strength of the correlation between oil prices and these industries.

The study also delves into a scenario-based impact assessment across countries. The impact of the high and low oil prices scenarios was explored for a combination of net oil exporters and importers, that is, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Kingdom, and India. For the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, GDP growth, inflation, and fiscal deficit outlooks were explored in detail in light of price scenarios. For industries showing a strong negative correlation with oil prices, scenario-based industry forecasts were generated.

Key Issues Addressed

  • How will oil prices evolve until 2025?
  • Which key demand- and supply-side factors are influencing the price trajectory?
  • Will the impact of demand- and supply-side factors on oil prices vary until 2025?
  • How strongly are oil prices correlated with output across various industries?
  • What is Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth outlook under a high and low oil price scenario?
  • How will the US’ fiscal deficit evolve under the baseline oil price scenario?
  • Under a high oil price scenario, what is Russia’s chemicals' IIP outlook?
  • What economic diversification opportunities will oil price movements generate?

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

Table of Contents

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Economy

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Oil Price Sensitivity Modelling and the Global Macroeconomic Transformation—An Overview

Key Metrics—Oil Price Projections by Scenario

Macroeconomic Growth Drivers

Macroeconomic Growth Restraints

Demand and Supply-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices

Demand-side Factors—Scenario Analysis

Demand-side Factors—Scenario Analysis (continued)

Supply-side Factors—Scenario Analysis

Supply-side Factors—Scenario Analysis (continued)

Demand-side Factors—Price Impact Rating

Supply-side Factors—Price Impact Rating

Oil Price Modelling—Methodology

Oil Price Projections by Scenario

Oil Price Scenario Impact on Economies

Oil Price Scenario Impact on Economies (continued)

The United States—GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

The United States—Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

The United States—Fiscal Deficit Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Saudi Arabia—GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Saudi Arabia—Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Saudi Arabia—Fiscal Deficit Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Russia—GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Russia—Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Russia—Fiscal Deficit Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Methodology

Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Results

Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Qualitative Analysis

Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Qualitative Analysis (continued)

Oil Price and Service GDP Correlation—Methodology

Oil Price and Service GDP Correlation—Results

Oil Price and Service GDP Correlation—Qualitative Analysis

Food Products—The United States: Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Chemicals—Russia: Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Pharmaceuticals—Germany: Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Wholesale and Retail Trade—India: Outlook by Oil Price Scenario

Growth Opportunity 1—Higher Oil Revenue to Drive Infrastructure Development for Oil Exporters

Growth Opportunity 1—Higher Oil Revenue to Drive Infrastructure Development for Oil Exporters (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2—Oil Price Volatility and Clean Energy Transition to Drive Non-oil Sector Growth and Renewable Energy Opportunities

Growth Opportunity 2—Oil Price Volatility and Clean Energy Transition to Drive Non-oil Sector Growth and Renewable Energy Opportunities (continued)

Oil Price Modelling—Detailed Methodology

US GDP Growth, Inflation Rate, and Fiscal Deficit

Saudi Arabia GDP Growth, Inflation Rate, and Fiscal Deficit

Russia GDP Growth, Inflation Rate, and Fiscal Deficit

Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Detailed Methodology

Oil Price and IIP Correlations—Results for All Industries

Oil Price and Service GDP Correlation—Detailed Methodology

Oil Price and Service GDP/GVA Correlations—Results for All Industries

Industry Outlook

Industry Outlook (continued)

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

International crude oil prices are sensitive to oil production policies, geopolitical issues, government regulations, and several other factors. For improved foresight and scenario-planning capabilities, this Frost & Sullivan research service encompasses an oil price forecast model until 2025. The model was developed through a comprehensive scenario-based analysis of demand- and supply-side factors influencing oil prices. Price forecasts until 2025 were generated under 3 scenarios—baseline, high, and low oil prices. To establish the sensitivity of industry output to oil prices, a comprehensive correlation exercise was undertaken for multiple countries. Food products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, wholesale and retail trade, and finance and insurance demonstrated a strong negative correlation with oil prices. Qualitative findings further support the nature and strength of the correlation between oil prices and these industries. The study also delves into a scenario-based impact assessment across countries. The impact of the high and low oil prices scenarios was explored for a combination of net oil exporters and importers, that is, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Kingdom, and India. For the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, GDP growth, inflation, and fiscal deficit outlooks were explored in detail in light of price scenarios. For industries showing a strong negative correlation with oil prices, scenario-based industry forecasts were generated.--BEGIN PROMO--

Key Issues Addressed

  • How will oil prices evolve until 2025
  • Which key demand- and supply-side factors are influencing the price trajectory
  • Will the impact of demand- and supply-side factors on oil prices vary until 2025
  • How strongly are oil prices correlated with output across various industries
  • What is Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth outlook under a high and low oil price scenario
  • How will the US’ fiscal deficit evolve under the baseline oil price scenario
  • Under a high oil price scenario, what is Russia’s chemicals' IIP outlook
  • What economic diversification opportunities will oil price movements generate

Author: Neha Anna Thomas

More Information
Deliverable Type Economic and Databases
Author Neha Anna Thomas
GPS Codes 9A6B
Industries Cross Industries
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Podcast No
Predecessor NA
WIP Number 9AE5-00-3A-00-00