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Oil Price Sensitivity Analysis and Macroeconomic Opportunities
Downward Oil Price Movements Bode Well for Food Products, Chemicals, and Pharmaceuticals Production
03-Feb-2022
North America
Economic and Databases
9AE5-00-3A-00-00
CI00797-NA-MT_26228
$2,450.00
Special Price $1,837.50 save 25 %
International crude oil prices are sensitive to oil production policies, geopolitical issues, government regulations, and several other factors. For improved foresight and scenario-planning capabilities, this Frost & Sullivan research service encompasses an oil price forecast model until 2025. The model was developed through a comprehensive scenario-based analysis of demand- and supply-side factors influencing oil prices. Price forecasts until 2025 were generated under 3 scenarios—baseline, high, and low oil prices.
To establish the sensitivity of industry output to oil prices, a comprehensive correlation exercise was undertaken for multiple countries. Food products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, wholesale and retail trade, and finance and insurance demonstrated a strong negative correlation with oil prices. Qualitative findings further support the nature and strength of the correlation between oil prices and these industries.
The study also delves into a scenario-based impact assessment across countries. The impact of the high and low oil prices scenarios was explored for a combination of net oil exporters and importers, that is, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Kingdom, and India. For the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, GDP growth, inflation, and fiscal deficit outlooks were explored in detail in light of price scenarios. For industries showing a strong negative correlation with oil prices, scenario-based industry forecasts were generated.
Key Issues Addressed
- How will oil prices evolve until 2025?
- Which key demand- and supply-side factors are influencing the price trajectory?
- Will the impact of demand- and supply-side factors on oil prices vary until 2025?
- How strongly are oil prices correlated with output across various industries?
- What is Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth outlook under a high and low oil price scenario?
- How will the US’ fiscal deficit evolve under the baseline oil price scenario?
- Under a high oil price scenario, what is Russia’s chemicals' IIP outlook?
- What economic diversification opportunities will oil price movements generate?
Author: Neha Anna Thomas
Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Economy
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Oil Price Sensitivity Modelling and the Global Macroeconomic Transformation—An Overview
Key Metrics—Oil Price Projections by Scenario
Macroeconomic Growth Drivers
Macroeconomic Growth Restraints
Demand and Supply-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices
Demand-side Factors—Scenario Analysis
Demand-side Factors—Scenario Analysis (continued)
Supply-side Factors—Scenario Analysis
Supply-side Factors—Scenario Analysis (continued)
Demand-side Factors—Price Impact Rating
Supply-side Factors—Price Impact Rating
Oil Price Modelling—Methodology
Oil Price Projections by Scenario
Oil Price Scenario Impact on Economies
Oil Price Scenario Impact on Economies (continued)
The United States—GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
The United States—Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
The United States—Fiscal Deficit Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Saudi Arabia—GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Saudi Arabia—Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Saudi Arabia—Fiscal Deficit Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Russia—GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Russia—Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Russia—Fiscal Deficit Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Methodology
Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Results
Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Qualitative Analysis
Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Qualitative Analysis (continued)
Oil Price and Service GDP Correlation—Methodology
Oil Price and Service GDP Correlation—Results
Oil Price and Service GDP Correlation—Qualitative Analysis
Food Products—The United States: Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Chemicals—Russia: Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Pharmaceuticals—Germany: Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Wholesale and Retail Trade—India: Outlook by Oil Price Scenario
Growth Opportunity 1—Higher Oil Revenue to Drive Infrastructure Development for Oil Exporters
Growth Opportunity 1—Higher Oil Revenue to Drive Infrastructure Development for Oil Exporters (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2—Oil Price Volatility and Clean Energy Transition to Drive Non-oil Sector Growth and Renewable Energy Opportunities
Growth Opportunity 2—Oil Price Volatility and Clean Energy Transition to Drive Non-oil Sector Growth and Renewable Energy Opportunities (continued)
Oil Price Modelling—Detailed Methodology
US GDP Growth, Inflation Rate, and Fiscal Deficit
Saudi Arabia GDP Growth, Inflation Rate, and Fiscal Deficit
Russia GDP Growth, Inflation Rate, and Fiscal Deficit
Oil Price and IIP Correlation—Detailed Methodology
Oil Price and IIP Correlations—Results for All Industries
Oil Price and Service GDP Correlation—Detailed Methodology
Oil Price and Service GDP/GVA Correlations—Results for All Industries
Industry Outlook
Industry Outlook (continued)
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
List of Exhibits (continued)
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures
- Brent Crude Oil Price by Scenario, Global, 2018—2025
- Macroeconomic Growth Drivers, Global, 2022–2025
- Macroeconomic Growth Restraints, Global, 2022–2025
- Demand and Supply-Side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025
- Scenario Analysis of Demand-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025
- Scenario Analysis of Supply-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025
- Price Impact of Demand-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025
- Price Impact of Supply-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025
- Brent Crude Oil Price by Scenario, Global, 2018–2025
- Impact of Oil Price Scenarios on Select Economies, Global, 2022–2025
- Impact of Oil Price Scenarios on Select Economies, Global, 2022–2025
- GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, US, 2018–2025
- Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, US, 2018–2025
- Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (+/-) by Oil Price Scenario, US, 2018–2025
- GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025
- Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025
- Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (+/-) by Oil Price Scenario, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025
- GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, Russia, 2018–2025
- Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, Russia, 2018–2025
- Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (+/-) by Oil Price Scenario, Russia, 2018–2025
- Oil Price and IIP Correlation, Select Countries, Q1 2010–Q4 2020
- Qualitative Analysis of Oil Price and IIP Correlation in Select Industries, Global, 2021
- Oil Price and Service GDP/GVA Correlation, Select Countries, 2010–2021
- Qualitative Analysis of Oil Price and Service GDP/GVA in Select Industries, Global, 2021
- Food Products’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, US, 2018–2025
- Chemicals’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Russia, 2018–2025
- Pharmaceuticals’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Germany, 2018–2025
- Wholesale and Retail Trade Gross Value Added (GVA) by Oil Price Scenario, India, 2018–2025
- GDP Growth by Oil Price Scenario, %, US, 2018–2025
- Inflation Rate by Oil Price Scenario, %, US, 2018–2025
- Fiscal Deficit by Oil Price Scenario, % of GDP, US, 2018–2025
- GDP Growth by Oil Price Scenario, %, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025
- Inflation Rate by Oil Price Scenario, %, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025
- Fiscal Deficit by Oil Price Scenario, % of GDP, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025
- GDP Growth by Oil Price Scenario, %, Russia, 2018–2025
- Inflation Rate by Oil Price Scenario, %, Russia, 2018–2025
- Fiscal Deficit by Oil Price Scenario, % of GDP, Russia, 2018–2025
- Oil Price and IIP Correlations, Select Countries, Q1 2010–Q4 2020
- Oil Price and Service GVA/GDP Correlations, Select Countries, 2010–2021
- Food Products’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Base Year = 2015, US, 2018–2025
- Chemical and Chemical Products’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Base Year = 2015, Russia, 2018–2025
- Pharmaceutical Products’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Base Year = 2015, Germany, 2018–2025
- Wholesale and Retail Trade GVA by Oil Price Scenario, $ Billion, India, 2018–2025
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Key Issues Addressed
- How will oil prices evolve until 2025
- Which key demand- and supply-side factors are influencing the price trajectory
- Will the impact of demand- and supply-side factors on oil prices vary until 2025
- How strongly are oil prices correlated with output across various industries
- What is Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth outlook under a high and low oil price scenario
- How will the US’ fiscal deficit evolve under the baseline oil price scenario
- Under a high oil price scenario, what is Russia’s chemicals' IIP outlook
- What economic diversification opportunities will oil price movements generate
Author: Neha Anna Thomas
| Deliverable Type | Economic and Databases |
|---|---|
| Author | Neha Anna Thomas |
| GPS Codes | 9A6B |
| Industries | Cross Industries |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| List of Charts and Figures | Brent Crude Oil Price by Scenario, Global, 2018—2025~ Macroeconomic Growth Drivers, Global, 2022–2025~ Macroeconomic Growth Restraints, Global, 2022–2025~ Demand and Supply-Side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025~ Scenario Analysis of Demand-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025~ Scenario Analysis of Supply-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025~ Price Impact of Demand-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025~ Price Impact of Supply-side Factors Influencing Oil Prices, Global, 2022–2025~ Brent Crude Oil Price by Scenario, Global, 2018–2025~ Impact of Oil Price Scenarios on Select Economies, Global, 2022–2025~ Impact of Oil Price Scenarios on Select Economies, Global, 2022–2025~ GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, US, 2018–2025~ Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, US, 2018–2025~ Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (+/-) by Oil Price Scenario, US, 2018–2025~ GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025~ Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025~ Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (+/-) by Oil Price Scenario, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025~ GDP Growth Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, Russia, 2018–2025~ Inflation Outlook by Oil Price Scenario, Russia, 2018–2025~ Fiscal Surplus/Deficit (+/-) by Oil Price Scenario, Russia, 2018–2025~ Oil Price and IIP Correlation, Select Countries, Q1 2010–Q4 2020~ Qualitative Analysis of Oil Price and IIP Correlation in Select Industries, Global, 2021~ Oil Price and Service GDP/GVA Correlation, Select Countries, 2010–2021~ Qualitative Analysis of Oil Price and Service GDP/GVA in Select Industries, Global, 2021~ Food Products’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, US, 2018–2025~ Chemicals’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Russia, 2018–2025~ Pharmaceuticals’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Germany, 2018–2025~ Wholesale and Retail Trade Gross Value Added (GVA) by Oil Price Scenario, India, 2018–2025~ GDP Growth by Oil Price Scenario, %, US, 2018–2025~ Inflation Rate by Oil Price Scenario, %, US, 2018–2025~ Fiscal Deficit by Oil Price Scenario, % of GDP, US, 2018–2025~ GDP Growth by Oil Price Scenario, %, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025~ Inflation Rate by Oil Price Scenario, %, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025~ Fiscal Deficit by Oil Price Scenario, % of GDP, Saudi Arabia, 2018–2025~ GDP Growth by Oil Price Scenario, %, Russia, 2018–2025~ Inflation Rate by Oil Price Scenario, %, Russia, 2018–2025~ Fiscal Deficit by Oil Price Scenario, % of GDP, Russia, 2018–2025~ Oil Price and IIP Correlations, Select Countries, Q1 2010–Q4 2020~ Oil Price and Service GVA/GDP Correlations, Select Countries, 2010–2021~ Food Products’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Base Year = 2015, US, 2018–2025~ Chemical and Chemical Products’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Base Year = 2015, Russia, 2018–2025~ Pharmaceutical Products’ IIP by Oil Price Scenario, Base Year = 2015, Germany, 2018–2025~ Wholesale and Retail Trade GVA by Oil Price Scenario, $ Billion, India, 2018–2025~ |
| Podcast | No |
| Predecessor | NA |
| WIP Number | 9AE5-00-3A-00-00 |