Pro-green Government Policies and Incentives Power the Electric Bus Market

Pro-green Government Policies and Incentives Power the Electric Bus Market

CASE Convergence and Value Chain Integration Will Ensure Transformational Growth

RELEASE DATE
07-Apr-2021
REGION
North America
Research Code: K52D-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU02150-NA-MT_25358

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Description

Electric buses will find traction across major regions driven by emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has enabled global sourcing and supply chain for alternate powertrain buses. The market is witnessing strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. Battery-electric buses are expected to have a larger market share, followed by fuel cell electric buses by 2030. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses, when compared to diesel buses, and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026.

The global electric bus market size is expected to reach more than 210,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9%. The penetration of electric buses in China is expected to reach 80% in 2030 India and LATAM will be the fastest-growing markets between 2020 and 2030 with a CAGR of 38.4% and 28.4%, respectively.

EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses are expected to have strong growth from 2022 to 2025. JIVE projects encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fuelling infrastructure for electric vehicles.

In China, battery electric buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the reduction of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption towards 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports.

Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) is expected to drive the electric bus adoption in Latin America with the focus initially on Medellin, São Paulo, and Mexico City. Major countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation. Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM. The electric bus unit shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.4% from 2020 to 2030.

The increasing need for reducing emissions, especially in highly-populated cities, will necessitate the need for electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities coupled with aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies is expected to increase the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment though it faces stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses.

Author: Saideep Sudhakar

Table of Contents

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on Electric Bus Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Electric Bus Market Scope of Analysis

Product and Technology Segmentation

Key Competitors for Electric Buses

Key Growth Metrics for Global Electric Bus Market

Growth Drivers for the Adoption of Electric Buses

Growth Restraints for the Adoption of Electric Buses

Snapshot of Bus Market by Region in 2030

Global Bus Market—Unit Shipment Forecast by Region

Global Bus Market—Regional Split

Snapshot of xEV Bus Market by Region in 2030

Key Electric Bus Use Cases

Key Forecast Criteria

Key Factors Impacting Electrification

Analysis of Legislative Factors

Analysis of Economic Factors

Analysis of Economic Factors (continued)

Analysis of Infrastructure Factors

Analysis of Technological Factors

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis

Global Electric Bus—Percent Unit Shipment Forecast by Region

Electric Bus Market—Regional Split by Technology, 2030

Electric Transit Bus Regional Pricing Outlook

Electric Coaches Regional Pricing Outlook

Electric Motor Roadmap

Future of Battery Chemistries

CHAdeMO Charging

CHARIN

Pantograph Charging

Induction Charging

Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap—Battery Electric Bus

Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology Roadmap—Fuel Cell Buses

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus, North America

Key Trends, North America

Incentives, North America

Major OEMs Offering xEVs, North America

Transit Bus Market—Powertrain Forecast, North America

Coaches Market—Powertrain Forecast, North America

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, North America

Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, North America

OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping, North America

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus—Europe

Key Trends, Europe

Incentives, Europe

Low Emission Zones (LEZs), Europe

Major OEMs Offering xEVs, Europe

Transit Bus Market—Powertrain Forecast, Europe

Coaches Market—Powertrain Forecast, Europe

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, Europe

Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, Europe

OEM—Motor Type Mapping, Europe

OEM—Battery Chemistry Mapping, Europe

2020 Regional Analysis—Germany

2020 Regional Analysis—France

2020 Regional Analysis—Spain

2020 Regional Analysis—Italy

2020 Regional Analysis—UK

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus—China

Key Trends, China

Incentives, China

Major OEMs Offering xEVs, China

Transit Bus Market—Powertrain Forecast, China

Coaches Market—Powertrain Forecast, China

Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, China

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, China

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus-India

Key Trends, India

Incentives, India—FAME-II

Major OEMs Offering xEVs, India

Transit Bus Market—Powertrain Forecast, India

Coaches Market—Powertrain Forecast, India

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, India

Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, India

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus, Latin America

Key Trends, Latin America

Incentives, Latin America

Major OEMs Offering xEVs, Latin America

Transit Bus Market—Powertrain Forecast, Latin America

Coaches Market—Powertrain Forecast, Latin America

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis, Latin America

Transit Bus and Coach Unit Shipment Split by xEV, Latin America

Operational Cost/Mile Comparison—Assumptions

Diesel Transit Bus—Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown

NG Transit Bus—Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown

Electric Transit Bus—Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown

Fuel Cell Transit Bus—Price, Fuel, and R&M Breakdown

Diesel, NG, Electric, Fuel Cell Transit Bus Operational CPM Comparison

Operational Cost/Mile ($/mile)—Diesel, Electric, NG, Fuel Cell

Growth Opportunity—Expanding the Electric Bus Product Portfolio to Compete with Conventional Fuel-powered Buses

Growth Opportunity—Expanding the Electric Bus Product Portfolio to Compete with Conventional Fuel-powered Buses (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

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Related Research
Electric buses will find traction across major regions driven by emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has enabled global sourcing and supply chain for alternate powertrain buses. The market is witnessing strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. Battery-electric buses are expected to have a larger market share, followed by fuel cell electric buses by 2030. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses, when compared to diesel buses, and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026. The global electric bus market size is expected to reach more than 210,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9%. The penetration of electric buses in China is expected to reach 80% in 2030 India and LATAM will be the fastest-growing markets between 2020 and 2030 with a CAGR of 38.4% and 28.4%, respectively. EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses are expected to have strong growth from 2022 to 2025. JIVE projects encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fuelling infrastructure for electric vehicles. In China, battery electric buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the reduction of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption towards 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports. Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) is expected to drive the electric bus adoption in Latin America with the focus initially on Medellin, São Paulo, and Mexico City. Major countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation. Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM. The electric bus unit shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.4% from 2020 to 2030. The increasing need for reducing emissions, especially in highly-populated cities, will necessitate the need for electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities coupled with aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies is expected to increase the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment though it faces stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses. Author: Saideep Sudhakar
More Information
Author Saideep Sudhakar
GPS Codes 9673-A6,9800-A6,9807-A6,9813-A6,9B01-A6,9963-A6,9882-A6,9965-A6
Industries Automotive
No Index No
Is Prebook No
Podcast No
WIP Number K52D-01-00-00-00