Global Growth Opportunities in the Electric Transit Bus and Coach Market, 2030
Europe, North America, and India Will Experience a Resurgence of the Industry
21-Feb-2024
North America
Market Research
Emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions will drive electric bus growth across the world. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has opened the path for global sourcing and supply of alternate powertrain buses. The industry is fertile ground for strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. By 2023, battery-electric (BEV) buses will attain a larger market share followed by fuel-cell electric buses. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses in comparison to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026.
The global electric bus market size will reach more than 160,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6%.
EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses will experience strong growth from 2022 to 2025. Joint Initiative for Hydrogen Vehicles across Europe (JIVE) projects will encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fueling infrastructure for electric vehicles.
In China, BEV buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the elimination of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However, lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption toward 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports.
Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) will drive electric bus adoption in Latin America with initial kickstarts in Medellin, São Paulo, and Mexico City. Major LATAM countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation, and Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM.
The increasing need to reduce emissions, especially in highly populated cities, will require a greater adoption of electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities and aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies will help in that sense, increasing the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment, albeit with stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses.
Author: Saideep Sudhakar
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Bus Industry
Transformative Mega Trends
- WHY: Factors such as congestion, emissions, safety, and shifting consumer preferences are disrupting the automotive industry. A resultant shift to these market dynamics is causing the convergence of Mega Trends: connected, autonomous, shared, and electric (CASE).
- Frost Perspective: These 4 themes are not new to the industry; however, changing dynamics have amplified the convergence. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will shift toward CASE convergence. Returns on investments will increase toward the end of the decade, with newly developed business models having implications for these Mega Trends.
Disruptive Technologies
- WHY: Technology innovations are important enablers in transforming the commercial vehicle (CV) industry, opening new revenue streams for CV OEMs and suppliers.Service opportunities abound for OEMs in telematics, safety systems, and autonomous systems.
- Frost Perspective: With the industry progressing, the role of Tier I suppliers will become crucial, as they can integrate electric technology into vehicles. The emergence of innovative business models in passenger transportation will increase in the next 2 to 3 years.
Industry Convergence
- WHY: Convergence between OEMs, technology companies, and infrastructure companies is essential for solving future challenges in the mobility industry.
- Frost Perspective: Value-chain integration and ecosystem expansion will be the next focus. Expectations from fleets will increase in the long term, including reduced charging time, increased geographical coverage, higher parking feasibility, more competitive pricing, and more value-added offerings. Customized solutions for customers, based on fleet convenience, will increase electric vehicle (EV) adoption.
Study Scope
Scope
Area | Description |
---|---|
Geographic Coverage | Global |
Study Period | 2022–2030 |
Base Year | 2022 |
Forecast Period | 2023–2030 |
Monetary Unit | US Dollars |
Market/Segment/Program Area | By Bus Application Type: Transit buses (urban/intra-city buses) Coaches (intercity/tourist/luxury buses) By Bus Length: MD buses/midi-buses: 6.1 meters (m)–10m HD buses/large buses: Above 10m, articulated, bi-articulated, rigid, and double-decker |
- This study aims to research, analyze, forecast trends in, and provide insights into the global electric bus market.
- The scope of the study includes:
- Unit shipment sale values for the base year and forecast period for the total bus market
- Key regional trends, such as regulations, incentives, and government targets for introducing electric buses
- Electric bus strategies of major global OEMs
- Forecasts for electric bus sales between 2023 and 2030, considering technology trends, market trends, TCO, and product launches
Electric Bus Market: Total Bus Market Segmentation, Global, 2023
Global Bus Market
- Transit Buses
- Coaches
- School Buses
By size:
- MD Buses/Midi-buses (6.1m–10m)
- HD Buses/Large Buses (Above 10m)
By powertrain:
- Diesel
- Natural Gas (CNG/LPG)
- HEVs
- BEVs
- FCEVs
Growth Drivers for Electric Bus Adoption
Emission Regulations Driving EV Adoption:
The transportation sector creates more than half of the global carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide emissions and almost a quarter of the hydrocarbon emissions. Most countries are strengthening greenhouse gas emission regulations to reduce tailpipe pollutants, and governments are promoting renewable energy sources because automobiles consume roughly 60% of global fossil fuels.
Higher Global Adoption Enabling Economies of Scale:
Introducing and adopting electric transit buses in major global economies has helped global sourcing as well as supply chain and factory line production.
Improved TCO:
With the anticipated reduction in the purchase costs of EVs and EV supply equipment, fuel and maintenance savings will offset the smaller price gap compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Lower electricity costs compared to increasing fuel prices will make EVs more economically viable.
Technology Readiness:
Increased R&D aims to improve battery capacity and density, giving EVs better ranges through high-energy-density or solid-state lithium batteries. Ultra-fast direct current charging stations of more than 350 kilowatts that reduce charging times will require minimal development.
Growth Restraints for Electric Bus Adoption
Restraint |
---|
Market Viability: As ICEs have the highest penetration in trucks, the disruption of EVs could impact the whole supply chain and federal revenues from fuel taxes. How regulators handle this disruption will impact their adoption. Taxes on charging infrastructure and the power supplied may exist eventually, potentially affecting the long-term competitiveness of EVs. |
Economic Woes of Governments in Developed Markets: Raging inflation and recessions have eroded government funding for projects necessary for introducing electric transit buses. The short-to-medium-term global economic outlook remains volatile and will continue to restrain the electric transit bus market. |
High Charging Costs: The substantial capital investment forces charging station operators to keep charging costs high, which will affect TCO and impact fleet viability. This factor could deter fleet owners from shifting to electrification. |
Pricing: : As EV adoption expands, lithium-ion will become the new oil. Electric buses will benefit from the volume of scale that electric passenger cars achieved. The increased demand for rare earth metals, which motors use, may impede EV affordability. Hence, shifting to nonheavy-earth-dependent induction or switched reluctance motors will be vital |

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Bus Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Global Bus Market: Regional Split
Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot
Global Bus Powertrain Outlook
Market Presence of Leading Bus Manufacturers
Electric Bus Market Scope of Analysis
Product and Technology Segmentation
Key Growth Metrics for Global Electric Bus Market
Growth Drivers for Electric Bus Adoption
Growth Restraints for Electric Bus Adoption
Key Forecast Criteria
Key Factors Impacting Electrification
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis
Snapshot of xEV Bus Market by Region in 2030
Electric Bus Market: Regional Split by Technology, 2030
Key Electric Bus Use Cases
Electric Transit Bus Regional Pricing Outlook
Electric Coaches Regional Pricing Outlook
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: North America
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: North America
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: North America
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, North America
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, North America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV and FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping: North America
Battery and Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and NA Regions
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: Europe
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: Europe
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: Europe
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, Europe
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, Europe
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms (continued)
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio (continued)
Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM: Motor Type Mapping, Europe
OEM: Battery Chemistry Mapping, Europe
Regional Snapshot: Germany
Regional Snapshot: France
Regional Snapshot: Spain
Regional Snapshot: Italy
Regional Snapshot: United Kingdom
Battery Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and EU Countries
Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and EU Countries
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: China
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: China
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: China
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, China
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, China
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
Battery Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Chinese Cities
Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Chinese Cities
Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: India
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: India—FAME-II
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: India
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, India
Coach Market: Powertrain Forecast, India
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping: India
Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Indian States
Key Growth Metrics for Overall Bus: LATAM
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: LATAM
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: LATAM
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, Latin America
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, Latin America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping
OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping
Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and LATAM Countries
Growth Opportunity 1: Moving Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation through Electrification
Growth Opportunity 1: Moving Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation through Electrification (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Revenue Opportunities for Value Chain Participant Growth
Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Revenue Opportunities for Value Chain Participant Growth (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3: Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for FCEV Buses Across Segments and Use Cases
Growth Opportunity 3: Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for FCEV Buses Across Segments and Use Cases (continued)
Your Next Steps
Why Frost, Why Now?
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
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- Electric Bus Market: Total Bus Market Unit Shipment Forecast by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Powertrain Standard Overview, Global, 2022–2025
- Electric Bus Market: Total Bus Market Segmentation, Global, 2023
- Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, Global, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Growth Drivers, Global, 2023–2030
- Electric Bus Market: Growth Restraints, Global, 2023–2030
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, Global, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Region, Global, 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Regional Split by Technology, Global, 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Use Case for Electric Buses, Global, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Price Range Forecast for BEV Transit Bus by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Price Range Forecast for FCEV Transit Bus by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Price Range Forecast for BEV Coach by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Price Range Forecast for FCEV Coach by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, NA, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Incentives, NA, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, NA, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, NA, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, NA, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platform, NA, 2022–2025
- Electric Bus Market: Key OEMs FCEV Product Portfolio, North America, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Key BEV OEMs Product Portfolio, North America, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: BEV Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, North America, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: FCEV Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, North America, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, Europe, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Purchase Subsidies and Incentives, Europe, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, Europe, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, Europe, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market : Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, Europe, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platform, Europe, 2022–2026
- Electric Bus Market: Key BEV OEMs Product Portfolio, Europe, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Key FCEV OEMs Product Portfolio, Europe, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, Germany, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, Germany, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, France, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, France, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, Spain, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, Spain, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, Italy, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, Italy, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, UK, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, UK, 2022 and 2030
- Electric Bus Market: Battery Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, EU, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, EU, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, China, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Purchase Incentive by Chinese Central Government, China, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, China, 2022–2030
- Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, China, 2022–2030
- Bus Market: Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, China, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platform, China, 2022–2026
- Electric Bus Market: Key OEMs Product Portfolio, China, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio, China, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Battery Electric Bus Deployment by OEM and City, China, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment by OEM and City, China, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, India, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: FAME Incentives by Vehicle Segment, India, 2022–2025
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, India, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, India, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, India, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platforms, India, 2022–2025
- Electric Bus Market: Key OEMs Product Portfolio, India, 2022-2023
- Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping, India, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market : OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping, India, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, India, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Overall Bus Market Key Growth Metrics, LATAM, 2022
- Electric Bus Market: Incentives, LATAM, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, LATAM, 2022–2030
- Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, LATAM, 2022–2030
- Bus Market: Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, LATAM, 2022–2030
- Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platform, Latin America, 2022–2026
- Electric Bus Market: Key OEMs Product Portfolio, Latin America, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping, LATAM, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping, LATAM, 2022–2023
- Electric Bus Market: Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, Latin America, 2022–2023
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Deliverable Type | Market Research |
---|---|
Author | Saideep Sudhakar |
Industries | Automotive |
No Index | No |
Is Prebook | No |
Keyword 1 | china electric bus market |
Keyword 2 | coach bus market |
Keyword 3 | electric bus market |
List of Charts and Figures | Electric Bus Market: Total Bus Market Unit Shipment Forecast by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Powertrain Standard Overview, Global, 2022–2025~ Electric Bus Market: Total Bus Market Segmentation, Global, 2023~ Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, Global, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Growth Drivers, Global, 2023–2030~ Electric Bus Market: Growth Restraints, Global, 2023–2030~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, Global, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Region, Global, 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Regional Split by Technology, Global, 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Use Case for Electric Buses, Global, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Price Range Forecast for BEV Transit Bus by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Price Range Forecast for FCEV Transit Bus by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Price Range Forecast for BEV Coach by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Price Range Forecast for FCEV Coach by Region, Global, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, NA, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Incentives, NA, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, NA, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, NA, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, NA, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platform, NA, 2022–2025~ Electric Bus Market: Key OEMs FCEV Product Portfolio, North America, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Key BEV OEMs Product Portfolio, North America, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: BEV Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, North America, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: FCEV Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, North America, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, Europe, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Purchase Subsidies and Incentives, Europe, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, Europe, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, Europe, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market : Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, Europe, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platform, Europe, 2022–2026~ Electric Bus Market: Key BEV OEMs Product Portfolio, Europe, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Key FCEV OEMs Product Portfolio, Europe, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, Germany, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, Germany, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, France, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, France, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, Spain, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, Spain, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, Italy, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, Italy, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Percent Share of Participants, UK, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by ZEV, UK, 2022 and 2030~ Electric Bus Market: Battery Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, EU, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, EU, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, China, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Purchase Incentive by Chinese Central Government, China, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, China, 2022–2030~ Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, China, 2022–2030~ Bus Market: Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, China, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platform, China, 2022–2026~ Electric Bus Market: Key OEMs Product Portfolio, China, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio, China, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Battery Electric Bus Deployment by OEM and City, China, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment by OEM and City, China, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Key Growth Metrics, India, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: FAME Incentives by Vehicle Segment, India, 2022–2025~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, India, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, India, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, India, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platforms, India, 2022–2025~ Electric Bus Market: Key OEMs Product Portfolio, India, 2022-2023~ Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping, India, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market : OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping, India, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, India, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Overall Bus Market Key Growth Metrics, LATAM, 2022~ Electric Bus Market: Incentives, LATAM, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Unit Shipment Forecast Scenarios, LATAM, 2022–2030~ Bus Market: Transit Bus Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, LATAM, 2022–2030~ Bus Market: Coaches Forecast of Powertrain Adoption, LATAM, 2022–2030~ Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Platform, Latin America, 2022–2026~ Electric Bus Market: Key OEMs Product Portfolio, Latin America, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping, LATAM, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping, LATAM, 2022–2023~ Electric Bus Market: Electric Bus Deployment by OEMs, Latin America, 2022–2023~ |
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WIP Number | K903-01-00-00-00 |