Global Growth Opportunities in the Electric Transit Bus and Coach Market, 2030

Global Growth Opportunities in the Electric Transit Bus and Coach Market, 2030

Europe, North America, and India Will Experience a Resurgence of the Industry

RELEASE DATE
21-Feb-2024
REGION
North America
Research Code: K903-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU_2024_588
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Description

Emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions will drive electric bus growth across the world. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has opened the path for global sourcing and supply of alternate powertrain buses. The industry is fertile ground for strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. By 2023, battery-electric (BEV) buses will attain a larger market share followed by fuel-cell electric buses. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses in comparison to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026.

The global electric bus market size will reach more than 160,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6%.

EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses will experience strong growth from 2022 to 2025. Joint Initiative for Hydrogen Vehicles across Europe (JIVE) projects will encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fueling infrastructure for electric vehicles.

In China, BEV buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the elimination of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However, lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption toward 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports.

Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) will drive electric bus adoption in Latin America with initial kickstarts in Medellin, São Paulo, and Mexico City. Major LATAM countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation, and Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM.

The increasing need to reduce emissions, especially in highly populated cities, will require a greater adoption of electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities and aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies will help in that sense, increasing the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment, albeit with stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses.

Author: Saideep Sudhakar

Table of Contents

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Bus Industry

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Global Bus Market: Regional Split

Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot

Global Bus Powertrain Outlook

Market Presence of Leading Bus Manufacturers

Electric Bus Market Scope of Analysis

Product and Technology Segmentation

Key Growth Metrics for Global Electric Bus Market

Growth Drivers for Electric Bus Adoption

Growth Restraints for Electric Bus Adoption

Key Forecast Criteria

Key Factors Impacting Electrification

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis

Snapshot of xEV Bus Market by Region in 2030

Electric Bus Market: Regional Split by Technology, 2030

Key Electric Bus Use Cases

Electric Transit Bus Regional Pricing Outlook

Electric Coaches Regional Pricing Outlook

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: North America

Regional Snapshot

Incentives: North America

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: North America

Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, North America

Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, North America

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Key BEV and FCEV OEM Product Portfolio

OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping: North America

Battery and Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and NA Regions

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: Europe

Regional Snapshot

Incentives: Europe

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: Europe

Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, Europe

Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, Europe

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms (continued)

Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio

Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio (continued)

Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio

OEM: Motor Type Mapping, Europe

OEM: Battery Chemistry Mapping, Europe

Regional Snapshot: Germany

Regional Snapshot: France

Regional Snapshot: Spain

Regional Snapshot: Italy

Regional Snapshot: United Kingdom

Battery Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and EU Countries

Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and EU Countries

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: China

Regional Snapshot

Incentives: China

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: China

Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, China

Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, China

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio

Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio

Battery Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Chinese Cities

Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Chinese Cities

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: India

Regional Snapshot

Incentives: India—FAME-II

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: India

Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, India

Coach Market: Powertrain Forecast, India

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio

OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping: India

Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Indian States

Key Growth Metrics for Overall Bus: LATAM

Regional Snapshot

Incentives: LATAM

Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: LATAM

Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, Latin America

Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, Latin America

OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Key OEM Product Portfolio

OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping

OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping

Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and LATAM Countries

Growth Opportunity 1: Moving Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation through Electrification

Growth Opportunity 1: Moving Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation through Electrification (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Revenue Opportunities for Value Chain Participant Growth

Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Revenue Opportunities for Value Chain Participant Growth (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for FCEV Buses Across Segments and Use Cases

Growth Opportunity 3: Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for FCEV Buses Across Segments and Use Cases (continued)

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

Emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions will drive electric bus growth across the world. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has opened the path for global sourcing and supply of alternate powertrain buses. The industry is fertile ground for strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. By 2023, battery-electric (BEV) buses will attain a larger market share followed by fuel-cell electric buses. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses in comparison to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026. The global electric bus market size will reach more than 160,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6%. EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses will experience strong growth from 2022 to 2025. Joint Initiative for Hydrogen Vehicles across Europe (JIVE) projects will encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fueling infrastructure for electric vehicles. In China, BEV buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the elimination of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However, lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption toward 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports. Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) will drive electric bus adoption in Latin America with initial kickstarts in Medellin, S o Paulo, and Mexico City. Major LATAM countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation, and Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM. The increasing need to reduce emissions, especially in highly populated cities, will require a greater adoption of electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities and aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies will help in that sense, increasing the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment, albeit with stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses. Author: Saideep Sudhakar
More Information
Author Saideep Sudhakar
Industries Automotive
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WIP Number K903-01-00-00-00