Growth Opportunities in European Heavy-duty Electric Trucks

Growth Opportunities in European Heavy-duty Electric Trucks

EV Adoption in Regional Haulage to Ensure Future Growth Potential of HD Electric Truck Sales

RELEASE DATE
23-Feb-2024
REGION
Europe
Research Code: PF4C-01-00-00-00
SKU: AU_2024_602
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Description

Countries across the world are moving toward a low-carbon economy. Electric vehicle adoption is gaining traction as a part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market for EV adoption matures and more EVs become available for commercial sale.

In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure. Government incentives and programs, such as the electromobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure.

OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. Battery energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better at power density and durability.

Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift to electric vehicles.

The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market, particularly HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments.

Author: Saideep Sudhakar

Table of Contents

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?

The Strategic Imperative 8™

The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Trucks

Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Key Trends Influencing the Growth of Electric Trucks

Electric MD-HD Trucks: Regional Contribution

OEM Electrification Application Focus

Research Scope

Segmentation

Growth Metrics

Growth Drivers

Growth Restraints

Forecast Criteria

HD Sales Forecast by Region, Europe

Main Factors Impacting Electrification

Impact Analysis: Legislative Factors

Impact Analysis: Economic Factors

Impact Analysis: Economic Factors (continued)

Impact Analysis: Infrastructure Factors

Impact Analysis: Technological Factors

Electrification Use Cases for HD Electric Trucks

Sales and Electric Vehicle Penetration Forecast

Unit Shipment Forecast

Powertrain Split Forecast for HD Trucks

Energy Consumption Forecast

Revenue Forecast for HD Electric Trucks, Europe

Motor Type Mapping by OEM

Battery Capacity Mapping by OEM Model

Growth Metrics

Unit Shipment Forecast

Energy Consumption Forecast

Forecast Analysis

Growth Metrics

Unit Shipment Forecast

Energy Consumption Forecast

Forecast Analysis

Growth Metrics

Unit Shipment Forecast

Energy Consumption Forecast

Forecast Analysis

Growth Metrics

Unit Shipment Forecast

Energy Consumption Forecast

Forecast Analysis

Growth Metrics

Unit Shipment Forecast

Energy Consumption Forecast

Forecast Analysis

DAF Trucks N.V: Strategy and Development Roadmap

AB Volvo: Strategy and Development Roadmap

Renault Trucks: Strategy and Development Roadmap

Daimler Truck AG: Strategy and Development Roadmap

IVECO S.p.A: Strategy and Development Roadmap

Traton-MAN: Strategy and Development Roadmap

Traton-Scania: Strategy and Development Roadmap

TCO Analysis: Key Assumptions

Total Cost of Ownership

HDT Operational Characteristics and User Cycle Overview

Total HDT Lifecycle CO2 Emissions Assessment

Growth Opportunity 1: Dedicated Electric Platform Development

Growth Opportunity 1: Dedicated Electric Platform Development (continued)

Growth Opportunity 2: Electric Charging Infrastructure

Growth Opportunity 2: Electric Charging Infrastructure (continued)

Growth Opportunity 3: Value-added Services

Growth Opportunity 3: Value-added Services (continued)

Abbreviations and Acronyms Used

Your Next Steps

Why Frost, Why Now?

List of Exhibits

List of Exhibits (continued)

List of Exhibits (continued)

Legal Disclaimer

Countries across the world are moving toward a low-carbon economy. Electric vehicle adoption is gaining traction as a part of this shift, with rapid penetration expected beyond 2025 as the market for EV adoption matures and more EVs become available for commercial sale. In Europe, the transition to zero-emission vehicles is an important element of the low-emission mobility strategy. City administrative bodies and local authorities play pivotal roles in this transition by providing incentives for low-emission vehicles and deploying charging infrastructure. Government incentives and programs, such as the electromobility directive from Germany, electric charging funding in France, and the Efficient and Sustainable Mobility Incentives (MOVES) II program in Spain, will drive electrification and the growth of charging infrastructure. OEMs are focusing on urban distribution, refuse, and regional haul as strong use cases for electrification. Battery energy density and cycle life are expected to increase even as costs reduce with the likely commercialization of solid-state lithium and lithium-sulfur technology after 2027. Fuel cell technology is progressively getting better at power density and durability. Crude oil price fluctuations and lower maintenance costs will strongly favor the total cost of ownership of electric trucks as battery prices are expected to decline significantly after 2025. Lower cost of ownership with attractive leasing options for batteries and trucks and greater access to charging infrastructure will encourage smaller fleets to shift to electric vehicles. The study covers the commercial vehicle (CV) market, particularly HD CV: Greater than 16 tons GVWR. The study also provides a total cost of ownership analysis to examine the effect of these factors on the electric MD and HD segments. Author: Saideep Sudhakar
More Information
Author Saideep Sudhakar
Industries Automotive
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Is Prebook No
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WIP Number PF4C-01-00-00-00