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The Need to Decarbonize Residential Buildings is Driving Transformational Growth
04-Dec-2024
Global
Market Research
PFK6-01-00-00-00
EG_2024_1167
The global residential heat pump (HP) market is forecast to reach 17.0 million units by 2035, up from 7.6 million in 2024. Market definitions are important to the market forecast, and Frost & Sullivan excludes the sale of HPs for air conditioning. Market revenues are forecast to reach $80.43 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 8.5% from 2024 to 2035. As of 2024, Europe and the United States are the largest markets, holding 74.6% of global unit sales and 74.0% of global revenues, followed by China and Japan. HPs offer several advantages, including higher efficiency and the acceleration of heat decarbonization, as renewable electricity powers them. However, challenges include market- and site-dependent suitability and factors such as the age of households and insulation that require evaluation. Installation costs, especially for existing properties, are significant, and HPs have higher capital costs than gas boilers. Additionally, wider investment is necessary to ensure that HPs do not strain local electricity grids. Skilled installers and consultants are lacking in some markets, and the public is hesitant because of their familiarity with boiler technology.
Author: Neha Tatikota
Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Residential Heat Pump (HP) Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™
Key Insights
Key Insights (continued)
Scope of Analysis
Market Overview and Definitions
Segmentation
Distribution Channels
Competitive Environment
Key Competitors
Growth Metrics
Market Overview and Definitions
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Heat-as-a-Service
Residential Energy Uses Variances
The European Race for Heat Pumps
Heat Pumps Installed Base
HPs are Cheaper than Gas Boilers—Fact or Fiction? (UK Case Example)
EU Regulatory Outlook Favoring HPs
Fossil Fuel Bans Across Europe
Fossil Fuel Bans Across Europe (continued)
Fossil Fuel Bans Across Europe (continued)
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in New Buildings
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in New Buildings (continued)
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in New Buildings (continued)
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in Renovated Buildings
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in Renovated Buildings (continued)
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in Renovated Buildings (continued)
Support Mechanisms by Country for HPs in Renovated Buildings (continued)
Forecast Considerations
Residential HP Revenue and Unit Shipment Forecast
Residential HP Unit Shipment Forecast by Technology
Residential HP Revenue Forecast by Technology
Unit Shipment and Revenue Forecast by ASHP (ATA) Application
Unit Shipment and Revenue Forecast by ASHP (ATW) Application
Residential HP Unit Forecast by Region
Residential HP Revenue Forecast by Region
Revenue and Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis by Region
Revenue and Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis by Region (continued)
Revenue and Unit Shipment Forecast Analysis by Region (continued)
Competitive Environment—Tier Analysis
Competitive Environment—Analysis
Competitive Environment—Analysis (continued)
Residential HP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
Residential HP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country (continued)
ASHP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
ASHP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country (continued)
Unit Shipment Forecast by ASHP (Air-Air) Application by Country
Unit Shipment Forecast by ASHP (Air-Air) Application by Country (continued)
Unit Shipment Forecast by ASHP (Air-Water) Application by Country
Unit Shipment Forecast by ASHP (Air-Water) Application by Country (continued)
GSHP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country
GSHP Unit Shipment Forecast by Country (continued)
Residential HP Revenue Forecast by Country
Residential HP Revenue Forecast by Country (continued)
ASHP Revenue Forecast by Country
ASHP Revenue Forecast by Country (continued)
Revenue Forecast by ASHP (Air-Air) Application by Country
Revenue Forecast by ASHP (Air-Air) Application by Country (continued)
Revenue Forecast by ASHP (Air-Water) Application by Country
Revenue Forecast by ASHP (Air-Water) Application by Country (continued)
GSHP Revenue Forecast by Country
GSHP Revenue Forecast by Country (continued)
Residential HP Market—France
Installed Base Forecast—France
Residential HP Market—United Kingdom
Residential HP Market—United Kingdom (continued)
Installed Base Forecast—United Kingdom
Residential HP Market—Germany
Installed Base Forecast—Germany
Residential HP Market—Italy
Installed Base Forecast—Italy
Residential HP Market—Sweden
Installed Base Forecast—Sweden
Residential HP Market—Denmark
Installed Base Forecast—Denmark
Residential HP Market—Finland
Installed Base Forecast—Finland
Residential HP Market—Spain
Installed Base Forecast—Spain
Residential HP Market—The Netherlands
Installed Base Forecast—The Netherlands
Residential HP Market—Norway
Installed Base Forecast—Norway
Residential HP Market—Poland
Installed Base Forecast—Poland
Residential HP Market—United States
Residential HP Market—United States (continued)
Residential HP Market—United States (continued)
Installed Base Forecast—United States
Growth Opportunity 1: Heat-as-a-Service
Growth Opportunity 1: Heat-as-a-Service (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2: Industry Convergence
Growth Opportunity 2: Industry Convergence (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3: Smart Heat Pumps
Growth Opportunity 3: Smart Heat Pumps (continued)
Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
Next Steps
List of Exhibits
List of Exhibits (continued)
Legal Disclaimer
List of Figures
- Residential HP: Growth Metrics, Global, 2024
- Residential HP: Growth Drivers, Global, 2025–2035
- Residential HP: Growth Restraints, Global, 2025–2035
- Residential HP: Heat Pumps per Thousand Households, Europe 2018, 2021 & 2023
- Residential HP: Installed Base, Europe, 2024
- Residential HP: Revenue and Unit Forecast, Global, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Unit Forecast by Technology, Global, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Revenue Forecast by Technology, Global, 2022–2035
- ASHP: Unit Forecast by ASHP (ATA) Application, Global, 2022–2035
- ASHP: Revenue Forecast by ASHP (ATW) Application, Global, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Unit Forecast by Region, Global, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Revenue Forecast by Region, Global, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Unit Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- ASHP: Unit Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- ASHP: Unit Shipment Forecast by ASHP (Air-Air) Application by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- ASHP: Unit Shipment Forecast by ASHP (Air-Water) Application by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- GSHP: Unit Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Revenue Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- ASHP: Revenue Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- ASHP: Revenue Forecast by ASHP (Air-Air) Application by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- ASHP: Revenue Forecast by ASHP (Air-Water) Application by Country, Global, 2022–2035
- GSHP: Revenue Forecast by Country, Global, 2020–2030
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, France, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, United Kingdom, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Germany, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Italy, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Sweden, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Denmark, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Finland, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Spain, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, the Netherlands, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Norway, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Poland, 2022–2035
- Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, United States, 2022–2035
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| Deliverable Type | Market Research |
|---|---|
| Author | Neha Tatikota |
| Industries | Energy |
| No Index | No |
| Is Prebook | No |
| Keyword 1 | residential heat pumps |
| Keyword 2 | energy-efficient heating |
| Keyword 3 | heat pump industry trends |
| List of Charts and Figures | Residential HP: Growth Metrics, Global, 2024~ Residential HP: Growth Drivers, Global, 2025–2035~ Residential HP: Growth Restraints, Global, 2025–2035~ Residential HP: Heat Pumps per Thousand Households, Europe 2018, 2021 & 2023~ Residential HP: Installed Base, Europe, 2024~ Residential HP: Revenue and Unit Forecast, Global, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Unit Forecast by Technology, Global, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Revenue Forecast by Technology, Global, 2022–2035~ ASHP: Unit Forecast by ASHP (ATA) Application, Global, 2022–2035~ ASHP: Revenue Forecast by ASHP (ATW) Application, Global, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Unit Forecast by Region, Global, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Revenue Forecast by Region, Global, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Unit Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ ASHP: Unit Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ ASHP: Unit Shipment Forecast by ASHP (Air-Air) Application by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ ASHP: Unit Shipment Forecast by ASHP (Air-Water) Application by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ GSHP: Unit Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Revenue Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ ASHP: Revenue Forecast by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ ASHP: Revenue Forecast by ASHP (Air-Air) Application by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ ASHP: Revenue Forecast by ASHP (Air-Water) Application by Country, Global, 2022–2035~ GSHP: Revenue Forecast by Country, Global, 2020–2030~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, France, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, United Kingdom, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Germany, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Italy, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Sweden, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Denmark, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Finland, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Spain, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, the Netherlands, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Norway, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, Poland, 2022–2035~ Residential HP: Installed Base Forecast, United States, 2022–2035~ |
| Podcast | No |
| Predecessor | MGAE-01-00-00-00 |
| WIP Number | PFK6-01-00-00-00 |