Small Hydropower Market in Southeast Asia, Forecast to 2022

The recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that Global Warming has to be restricted to a maximum of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030 in order to minimize the impacts of climate change in the future. Energy generation from burning fossil fuels is considered one of the main causes of climate change, and one of the major recommendations by the IPCC is the faster shift toward renewable energy (RE) generation. Most of Southeast Asia (SEA) consists of developing nations, and their electricity requirements are expected to steadily increase in the coming decades, as their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increases. There is a global push toward decoupling GDP growth and carbon emissions, particularly in developing countries. Besides solar, wind, geothermal, and bioenergy, SEA is considering small hydropower as a viable source for electricity generation. With the presence of many rivers and a high potential for small hydropower, SEA’s market may be a good source of potential opportunities for turbine manufacturing companies.

This analysis observes the current state of the market in terms of installed capacity and the number of turbine units that are being used for hydropower generation.

Small hydropower has multiple definitions that vary depending on countries, experts, or organizations’ preferences. In this study, small hydropower is defined as any hydropower project that uses hydro turbines of rated capacity between 1 and 30 megawatts (MW). The study covers the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The market is measured in terms of the number of turbine units in existence, as well as the rated power capacity of these units. This study quantifies the existing market for the base year of 2017 and forecasts the same for the time period of 2018–2022. The study covers market drivers and restraints, market forecasts and trends, the industry value chains, typical project delivery models, and risks/barriers to entry, for all the countries mentioned.

The study also points out various opportunities for growth, in existing and upcoming projects, in the small hydropower market in SEA. It also provides suggestions on what companies can do to capitalize on these opportunities, such as the types of turbines to focus on or additional services that could be provided to the sector.

This study was performed using a bottom-up qualitative and quantitative analysis, using secondary research, of all small hydropower projects in SEA that are currently active or under construction. The results obtained were verified with primary sources to ensure the integrity and authenticity of data.