Strategic Analysis of BREXIT and its Implications to Industries, Economies and Societies

Strategic Analysis of BREXIT and its Implications to Industries, Economies and Societies

Comprehensive View of 6 BREXIT Scenarios on Our Future

RELEASE DATE
16-Sep-2016
REGION
Europe
Deliverable Type
Megatrends
Research Code: MC9A-01-00-00-00
SKU: CI00243-EU-MT_19194
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Description

As Europe battles unequal growth and environmental, economic, social, and political challenges, Britain has chosen to fight its challenges alone. This study puts forth a hypothetical timeline to the events that might unfold in the next five years and examines the potential trade models that may come to reality between Britain and the European Union, and the subsequent impact each scenario may have on the strongest industries in the region. It also analyses the new growth drivers that Britain will need to negotiate to keep itself afloat and the areas of innovation it is most likely to face obstacles. Key stakeholders will need to plan their strategic imperative to remain competitive in the new dynamic that is about to form in the near future.

Table of Contents

Brexit—Timeline of Events, UK, 2016–2015

Timeline of Potential Impact on Britain’s Economy

  • The Impact of Brexit, UK, 2016–2022

The Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit—Real GDP Growth of UK

Potential UK-EU Relationship Models

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Chemical Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Automotive (Cars) Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on Financial Services

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Wholesale and Retail Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Oil and Gas Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Pharmaceutical Industry

Future Growth Areas Most Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025

Research Scope

Aims and Objectives

Research Background

Research Methodology

Timeline Brexit Events, UK, 2016–2015

The Impact of Brexit, UK, 2016–2022

Potential Impact on the European Union

Potential Impact on North America

The Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit

Pound Devaluation

Oil Price Depreciation

Potential UK-EU Relationship Models

Terms of Relationship to the European Union

Explanation of the Key Terms

Scenario 1—The European Economic Area (EEA) Membership Model

Scenario 2—Free Trade Agreement Model

Scenario 3—The Sectoral Agreements Model

Scenario 4—The Bilateral Trade Connection Model

Scenario 5—The Independent Model

Scenario 6—Customs Union Agreement Model

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry

Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies

Impact of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry

Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast

Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Food, Beverage and Tobacco, UK, 2016–2025

Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Food and Beverage Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Chemical Industry

Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies

Impact of Brexit on the Chemical Industry

Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast

Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Chemical Industry, UK, 2016–2025

Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Chemical Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry

Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies

Impact of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry

Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast

Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Aerospace Industry, UK, 2016–2025

Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Aerospace Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Automotive (Cars) Industry

Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies

Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast

Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Automotive (Cars) Industry, UK, 2016–2025

Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Automotive (Cars) Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on Financial Services

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Wholesale and Retail Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Oil and Gas Industry

The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Pharmaceutical Industry

Policy Amendments

Future Growth Drivers

The Future Growth Areas Most Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025

Innovation Areas Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025

Is the UK Ready for the Challenge?

Legal Disclaimer

BREXIT War Gaming Workshop Strategic Imperative

Workshop Objectives

Workshop Approach—One-Day War Gaming Workshop

Our Value Proposition for this Project

Project Organisation

Professional Investment

List of Figures
  • 1.    Real GDP Growth, UK, 2015–2020
As Europe battles unequal growth and environmental, economic, social, and political challenges, Britain has chosen to fight its challenges alone. This study puts forth a hypothetical timeline to the events that might unfold in the next five years and examines the potential trade models that may come to reality between Britain and the European Union, and the subsequent impact each scenario may have on the strongest industries in the region. It also analyses the new growth drivers that Britain will need to negotiate to keep itself afloat and the areas of innovation it is most likely to face obstacles. Key stakeholders will need to plan their strategic imperative to remain competitive in the new dynamic that is about to form in the near future.
More Information
Deliverable Type Megatrends
No Index No
Podcast No
Table of Contents | Executive Summary~ || Brexit—Timeline of Events, UK, 2016–2015~ || Timeline of Potential Impact on Britain’s Economy~ ||| The Impact of Brexit, UK, 2016–2022~ || The Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit—Real GDP Growth of UK~ || Potential UK-EU Relationship Models~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Chemical Industry~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Automotive (Cars) Industry~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on Financial Services~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Wholesale and Retail Industry~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Oil and Gas Industry~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Pharmaceutical Industry~ || Future Growth Areas Most Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025~ | Research Scope, Objective, and Methodology~ || Research Scope~ ||| Study Period~ ||| Forecast Period~ ||| Geographical Scope~ ||| Industries Covered~ || Aims and Objectives~ || Research Background~ || Research Methodology~ ||| Macro~ |||| Identify Mega Trend Through Brainstorming Sessions~ |||| Identify Sub-trend Through Scenario-building Exercises~ ||| Micro~ |||| Assess the Impact of the Mega Trend at a Micro Level~ |||| Opportunities Analysis~ | Brexit—The Path Taken~ || Timeline Brexit Events, UK, 2016–2015~ || The Impact of Brexit, UK, 2016–2022~ || Potential Impact on the European Union~ ||| Top Areas Affected by Brexit, EU, 2016–2025~ || Potential Impact on North America~ ||| Top Areas Affected by Brexit, NA, 2016–2025~ || The Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit~ ||| Real GDP Growth of UK~ || Pound Devaluation~ ||| Drivers~ ||| The Impact of Pound Devaluation~ || Oil Price Depreciation~ | Potential UK-EU Relationship Models~ || Potential UK-EU Relationship Models~ || Terms of Relationship to the European Union~ ||| Summary Table–Terms of Relationship to the European Union Under 6 Scenarios, UK, 2016–2020~ || Explanation of the Key Terms~ | Analysis of 6 Scenarios—Potential Impact on the UK, the EU, and UK-based companies~ || Scenario 1—The European Economic Area (EEA) Membership Model~ ||| Description~ ||| The Impact on GDP, Trade and FDI~ ||| Drivers Leading this Scenario~ ||| The Impact on Business~ ||| Impact on Key Industries, UK, 2016–2020~ || Scenario 2—Free Trade Agreement Model~ || Scenario 3—The Sectoral Agreements Model~ || Scenario 4—The Bilateral Trade Connection Model~ || Scenario 5—The Independent Model~ || Scenario 6—Customs Union Agreement Model~ | Analysis of the Impact of Brexit on the Top 8 Industries of the UK~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry~ || Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies~ || Impact of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry~ ||| Winners~ ||| Losers~ || Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast~ ||| Significance of Food and Beverage Industry to the UK Economy~ ||| Impact of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry~ || Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Food, Beverage and Tobacco, UK, 2016–2025~ || Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Food and Beverage Industry~ ||| Benefit and Risk Analysis Under Each Model, UK, 2016–2025~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Chemical Industry~ || Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies~ || Impact of Brexit on the Chemical Industry~ ||| Winners ~ ||| Losers~ || Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast~ ||| Significance of Chemical Industry to the UK Economy~ ||| Impact of Brexit on the Chemical Industry~ || Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Chemical Industry, UK, 2016–2025~ || Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Chemical Industry~ ||| Benefit and Risk Analysis Under Each Model, UK, 2016–2025~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry~ || Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies~ || Impact of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry~ ||| Winners~ ||| Losers~ || Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast~ ||| Significance of Aerospace Industry to the UK Economy~ ||| Impact of Brexit on the Aerospace Industry~ || Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Aerospace Industry, UK, 2016–2025~ || Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Aerospace Industry~ ||| Benefit and Risk Analysis Under Each Model, UK, 2016–2025~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Automotive (Cars) Industry~ || Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies~ ||| Impact of Brexit on Automotive (Cars) Industry~ |||| Winners~ |||| Losers~ || Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast~ ||| Significance of Automotive (Cars) to the UK Economy~ ||| Impact of Brexit on the Automotive (Cars) Industry~ || Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Automotive (Cars) Industry, UK, 2016–2025~ || Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Automotive (Cars) Industry~ ||| Benefit and Risk Analysis Under Each Model, UK, 2016–2025~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on Financial Services~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Wholesale and Retail Industry~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Oil and Gas Industry~ || The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Pharmaceutical Industry~ | Policy Amendments~ || Policy Amendments~ | Future Growth Drivers Affected by Brexit~ || Future Growth Drivers~ || The Future Growth Areas Most Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025~ || Innovation Areas Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025~ | The Big Prediction~ || Is the UK Ready for the Challenge?~ || Legal Disclaimer~ | Appendix~ || BREXIT War Gaming Workshop Strategic Imperative~ || Workshop Objectives~ || Workshop Approach—One-Day War Gaming Workshop~ || Our Value Proposition for this Project~ || Project Organisation~ || Professional Investment~
List of Charts and Figures 1.    Real GDP Growth, UK, 2015–2020~
Author Malabika Mandal
Industries Cross Industries
WIP Number MC9A-01-00-00-00
Is Prebook No