Strategic Analysis of BREXIT and its Implications to Industries, Economies and Societies

Comprehensive View of 6 BREXIT Scenarios on Our Future

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As Europe battles unequal growth and environmental, economic, social, and political challenges, Britain has chosen to fight its challenges alone. This study puts forth a hypothetical timeline to the events that might unfold in the next five years and examines the potential trade models that may come to reality between Britain and the European Union, and the subsequent impact each scenario may have on the strongest industries in the region. It also analyses the new growth drivers that Britain will need to negotiate to keep itself afloat and the areas of innovation it is most likely to face obstacles. Key stakeholders will need to plan their strategic imperative to remain competitive in the new dynamic that is about to form in the near future.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
Brexit—Timeline of Events, UK, 2016–2015
Timeline of Potential Impact on Britain’s Economy
The Impact of Brexit, UK, 2016–2022
The Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit—Real GDP Growth of UK
Potential UK-EU Relationship Models
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Chemical Industry
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Automotive (Cars) Industry
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on Financial Services
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Wholesale and Retail Industry
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Oil and Gas Industry
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Pharmaceutical Industry
Future Growth Areas Most Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025
2. Research Scope, Objective, and Methodology
Research Scope
Study Period
Forecast Period
Geographical Scope
Industries Covered
Aims and Objectives
Research Background
Research Methodology
Macro
Identify Mega Trend Through Brainstorming Sessions
Identify Sub-trend Through Scenario-building Exercises
Micro
Assess the Impact of the Mega Trend at a Micro Level
Opportunities Analysis
3. Brexit—The Path Taken
Timeline Brexit Events, UK, 2016–2015
The Impact of Brexit, UK, 2016–2022
Potential Impact on the European Union
Top Areas Affected by Brexit, EU, 2016–2025
Potential Impact on North America
Top Areas Affected by Brexit, NA, 2016–2025
The Macroeconomic Impact of Brexit
Real GDP Growth of UK
Pound Devaluation
Drivers
The Impact of Pound Devaluation
Oil Price Depreciation
4. Potential UK-EU Relationship Models
Potential UK-EU Relationship Models
Terms of Relationship to the European Union
Summary Table–Terms of Relationship to the European Union Under 6 Scenarios, UK, 2016–2020
Explanation of the Key Terms
5. Analysis of 6 Scenarios—Potential Impact on the UK, the EU, and UK-based companies
Scenario 1—The European Economic Area (EEA) Membership Model
Description
The Impact on GDP, Trade and FDI
Drivers Leading this Scenario
The Impact on Business
Impact on Key Industries, UK, 2016–2020
Scenario 2—Free Trade Agreement Model
Scenario 3—The Sectoral Agreements Model
Scenario 4—The Bilateral Trade Connection Model
Scenario 5—The Independent Model
Scenario 6—Customs Union Agreement Model
6. Analysis of the Impact of Brexit on the Top 8 Industries of the UK
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry
Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies
Impact of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry
Winners
Losers
Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast
Significance of Food and Beverage Industry to the UK Economy
Impact of Brexit on the Food and Beverage Industry
Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Food, Beverage and Tobacco, UK, 2016–2025
Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Food and Beverage Industry
Benefit and Risk Analysis Under Each Model, UK, 2016–2025
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Chemical Industry
Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies
Impact of Brexit on the Chemical Industry
Winners
Losers
Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast
Significance of Chemical Industry to the UK Economy
Impact of Brexit on the Chemical Industry
Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Chemical Industry, UK, 2016–2025
Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Chemical Industry
Benefit and Risk Analysis Under Each Model, UK, 2016–2025
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry
Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies
Impact of Brexit on the Aerospace and Defense Industry
Winners
Losers
Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast
Significance of Aerospace Industry to the UK Economy
Impact of Brexit on the Aerospace Industry
Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Aerospace Industry, UK, 2016–2025
Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Aerospace Industry
Benefit and Risk Analysis Under Each Model, UK, 2016–2025
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Automotive (Cars) Industry
Methodology for Identification of Brexit Winner and Loser Companies
Impact of Brexit on Automotive (Cars) Industry
Winners
Losers
Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast
Significance of Automotive (Cars) to the UK Economy
Impact of Brexit on the Automotive (Cars) Industry
Impact of Brexit on Industry Forecast by Relationship Model: Automotive (Cars) Industry, UK, 2016–2025
Opportunity Scenario Under Each Model for the Automotive (Cars) Industry
Benefit and Risk Analysis Under Each Model, UK, 2016–2025
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on Financial Services
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Wholesale and Retail Industry
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Oil and Gas Industry
The Top 5 Effects of Brexit on the Pharmaceutical Industry
7. Policy Amendments
Policy Amendments
8. Future Growth Drivers Affected by Brexit
Future Growth Drivers
The Future Growth Areas Most Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025
Innovation Areas Affected by Brexit, UK, 2016–2025
9. The Big Prediction
Is the UK Ready for the Challenge?
Legal Disclaimer
10. Appendix
BREXIT War Gaming Workshop Strategic Imperative
Workshop Objectives
Workshop Approach—One-Day War Gaming Workshop
Our Value Proposition for this Project
Project Organisation
Professional Investment


List of Figures & Charts

1.    Real GDP Growth, UK, 2015–2020



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